1st place in opinion polls up and down… A different trend from previous elections
Election slogan missing in ‘candidate risk’… Unification, TV debate, etc.
(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Lee Yu-mi = “You will not be able to guess the final winner until the day before the election.”
Although the presidential election is approaching 50 days away, the ‘original’ situation where it is impossible to predict the winner continues.
While Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung and People’s Strength candidate Yoon Seok-yeol are in a tight battle, candidate Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party has been on the rise since the beginning of the year, and recent opinion polls show that his approval rating is ‘two-of-a-kind’.
As the candidate risk is so high that it has been stigmatized as an ‘unfavorable presidential election’, it is evaluated that the liquidity of the votes of the middle class and 2030 youth has been maximized. In addition to this, structural variables such as the unification of opposition candidates remain, making the situation truly unpredictable.
Both of the prominent candidates have their own risk factors having a huge impact on the overall election campaign, and in this situation, the first place in opinion polls frequently changes 50 days before the presidential election, and there is talk of an “unprecedented presidential election”.
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According to the results of the poll released on the 18th (the survey on the 15th to the 16th), Candidate Yoon and Candidate Lee showed a close battle in the multilateral confrontation.
In a Kanta Korea poll commissioned by the Chosun Ilbo, Candidate Yoon received 32.8% and Candidate Lee 31.7%, forming a close composition within the margin of error. Justice Party candidate Shim Sang-jung won 2.7 percent.
In the Embrain Public survey commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo, 35.9% of Candidates Yoon, 33.4% of Candidates Lee, 15.6% of Candidates Ahn, and 4.0% of Candidates Shim.
According to the results of a survey conducted by Realmeter on the request of OhmyNews the previous day (from the 9th to the 14th), Candidate Yoon recorded 40.6% and Candidate Lee 36.7%, respectively. A week ago, Candidate Lee led Candidate Yoon by a gap outside the margin of error.
Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University said, “In previous presidential elections, there has never been a case in which the first-place candidate jumped up and down as it is 50 days before the election.”
In the past presidential election, the candidate with the highest approval rating at this time generally ended up as the final winner, but in this presidential election, the candidate with the highest approval rating is changing frequently.
In 2017, when it was the “impeachment presidential election,” Moon Jae-in took the lead, followed by Hong Jun-pyo and Ahn Cheol-soo, and it ended with the actual election of President Moon.
In the 2012 presidential election, Candidate Park Geun-hye took first place in most multilateral opinion polls, and even though Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo achieved a unified candidate, former President Park won the final victory.
In an opinion poll conducted ahead of the 2007 presidential election in which former President Lee Myung-bak was elected, former President Lee Myung-bak has consistently ranked first. The exception was the 2002 presidential election, in which former President Roh Moo-hyun was elected.
At that time, Candidate Hoi-chang Lee was overwhelmingly in first place, but regarding a month before the presidential election, Candidate Roh Moo-hyun and Candidate Mong-jun Chung succeeded in unifying him and won the comeback victory.
(Seoul = Yonhap News) Democratic Party Lee Jae-myung (from right), People’s Party Ahn Cheol-soo, and People’s Strength Presidential Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol pose for a commemorative photo while attending the New Year’s rites held at the Press Center in Jung-gu, Seoul on the 17th. [연합뉴스 자료사진]
Experts point to ‘candidate risk’ as the biggest factor leading to an unpredictable presidential election.
Candidate Jae-myung Lee’s ‘Daejangdong Risk’ and Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon’s ‘Spouse Risk’ are representative examples.
The Democratic Party is intensively highlighting suspicions regarding the false history of candidate Yoon’s spouse Kim Kun-hee and allegations of shaman involvement, while the People’s Power is attacking Lee over suspicions of preferential treatment for Daejang-dong development and the payment of attorneys’ fees.
In previous presidential elections, voters’ votes tended to lean to one side depending on region, ideology, and generation, but some analysts say that this election is highly volatile due to such candidate risks.
Jong-chan Bae, director of Insight K, said, “The instability of any candidate has not been eliminated, so the judgments of the MZ generation (20-30 years old), women, and the middle class are revolving.” “(One day before the election) March 8 It is difficult to know who will win the election,” he said.
Professor Shin said, “In the past, Candidate Lee Myung-bak also had a ‘BBK risk’, but this was offset by the promise of a slogan like the Grand Canal on the Korean Peninsula or a strong image like the myth of a salaryman.”
It is also pointed out that the recent premarital situation is due to the chaos of the polls themselves.
It is analyzed that the ranking of approval ratings changes frequently because the number of polling agencies has increased significantly compared to the past and the methods of polling are different.
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The largest remaining variable is candidate unification. In a situation where public opinion for a change of government is higher than that for extension of government, if Candidates Yun Seok-yeol and Ahn Cheol-soo succeed in unification, it can bring regarding a change in the current flow of hardship. TV debates and the direction of female voters are also variables.
The sampling error of the polls cited in the article is ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level (the Realmeter survey is ±1.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level). For more information, visit the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.
In the Kantar Korea survey, mobile phones (88.2%) and home phones (11.8%), and telephone interviews using random dialing (RDD) were used. Dial-up (RDD), telephone interview using a mobile phone virtual number, and real meter survey were conducted by wireless telephone interview (20%), wireless automatic answering (75%), and wired automatic answering (5%) methods, respectively.
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2022/01/18 13:00 Send