2023-11-16 14:50:59
The major U.S. stock indexes were mixed on Thursday (16th), mainly due to the impact of computer network equipment manufacturer Cisco (CSCO-US) poor financial results, retail giant Walmart (WMT-US), while optimism around peaking interest rates waned. Cisco’s stock price fell more than 11% in early trading, and Walmart’s stock price fell nearly 7%.
before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagedown 0.02%,Nasdaq Composite Indexfell nearly 0.1%,S&P 500 Indexrose nearly 0.1%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index rose nearly 0.2%.
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States rose last week, further indicating that the job market is cooling, which is expected to allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to end its current interest rate hike cycle. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits rose to 231,000 last week, which was higher than market expectations of 220,000 and also exceeded the revised previous value of 218,000.
It is worth noting that the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits surged to 1.865 million last week, far exceeding market expectations of 1.847 million, and also higher than the revised previous value of 1.833 million, setting a new high in the past two years, highlighting that the unemployed are looking for new jobs. The challenges at work are getting bigger and bigger.
Analysis points out that although a strong job market has supported U.S. economic growth this year, many economists predict that the labor market will begin to lose momentum under the weight of rising borrowing costs.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers believes that the reason why U.S. inflation has slowed faster than he expected is due to “temporary factors.” He noted that the slowdown in inflation is surprising given how strong the economy has been, and is partly related to temporary factors that pushed inflation up from the bottleneck and are now reverting to the mean and pushing inflation back down. .
On the other hand, a bleak economic outlook and attractive cash returns have sent investors fleeing U.S. stocks this year despite a stellar performance. Goldman Sachs believes this caution will continue into next year.
David Kostin, the bank’s chief U.S. stock strategist, believes that stocks are expected to earn positive returns, but a 5% risk-free cash return is still a competitive option.In the current interest rate environment, the 3-month Treasury bill yield is 5.5%, versusS&P 500 Indexreturns are similar.
Global stocks will outperform bonds next year as the global economy “softens”, strategists say, becoming the latest to be optimistic regarding the asset class. The bank’s strategists are overweight global stocks rather than bonds, predicting “mid- to high-single-digit returns” in the U.S. and Europe next year.
As of 21:00 Taipei time on Thursday (16th): Focus stocks:
Alibaba (BABA-US) fell 8.16% in early trading to $79.97 per share
According to 144 documents released by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Jack Ma’s family trusts JC Properties Limited and JSP Investment Limited plan to reduce their holdings of 5 million shares of the founder of Alibaba on November 21, involving a total stock market value of US$870.7 million.
Cisco (CSCO-US) fell 11.43% in early trading to $47.19 per share
Cisco’s revenue last quarter was US$14.67 billion, an increase of 8% year-on-year, in line with market expectations of US$14.63 billion. The company forecast second-quarter revenue of US$12.6 billion to US$12.8 billion, lower than the expected US$14.2 billion; adjusted earnings per share ranged from US$0.82 to US$0.84, also lower than the expected US$0.99. In addition, it also lowered its full-year revenue guidance from US$57 billion to US$58.2 billion to US$53.8 billion to US$55 billion, which was lower than market expectations of US$57.84 billion.
Microsoft (MSFT-US) rose 1.10% to $373.75 per share in early trading
After Microsoft’s artificial intelligence (AI) unit made significant progress, Wall Street investment bank Wedbush raised the company’s stock price target and listed it as a top pick for next year. Dan Ives, a senior analyst at Wedbush, said on social platform
Today’s key economic data: The number of people claiming initial unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 231,000, compared with 220,000 expected, and the revised previous value was 218,000. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits in the United States last week was reported at 1.865 million, compared with 1.847 million expected, revised The previous value was 1.833 million. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index in the United States in November was -5.9, which was expected to be -9.0, and the previous value was -9.0. The monthly growth rate of the U.S. export price index in October was -1.1%, which was expected to be -0.5%, and the revised previous value was 1.833 million. The U.S. import price index in October reported a monthly increase of -0.8% at 0.5%, which was expected to be -0.35%. The revised previous value was reported at 0.4%. Wall Street analysis:
Morgan Stanley economists assessed the U.S. dollar’s prospects for next year and said they expect the U.S. dollar’s strength to continue for some time. Economists pointed out that although U.S. economic growth has slowed, it is expected to be better than consensus expectations in the first half of next year and remain close to the potential growth rate.
In addition, due to the rather strong defensive characteristics of the U.S. dollar in a global economy that continues to experience low growth, coupled with the economic downside risks brought regarding by the central bank’s tightening policies and geopolitical risks, the U.S. dollar may continue to outperform other global currencies. Economists at the bank pointed out that the U.S. dollar not only provides liquidity and safe-haven status, but also offers high yields, which of course makes it attractive.
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