Hello, it’s lunchtime in Paris, and you can now drink your coffee at a bistro counter, or eat your sandwich during your train ride thanks to the lifting of some covid-19 restrictions as the omicron wave is receding.
What happened yesterday? Marine Le Pen accused one of her former right-hand men of treason. She said Nicolas Bay, a Rassemblement national member of the European Parliament, leaked internal information to her far-right rival’s campaign. Nicolas Bay was deprived of his duties. He denied any wrongdoing but is expected to rally Eric Zemmour as soon as this week.
Why does it matter? With the first round of the presidential election in less than two months, the impact of this internal struggle is hard to measure. It appears as the first act of the great upheaval to come for the nationalist-populist wing of the right.
In early January, Eric Zemmour’s bid for president seemed doomed. After a dazzling start in October, he had plateaued in the polls and fuelled doubts after a series of setbacks, especially when he gave the finger to a passerby in Marseille after a ghostly visit of France’s second-largest city. His rival on the far-right, Marine Le Pen, had been able to withstand his pressure, and the Conservative Party had crowned as its candidate a self-proclaimed doer and a moderate, Valérie Pécresse.
Six weeks later, the former polemicist is back in the race and vying for the presidential runoff. In Le Monde’s poll published on Friday, he is tied with his two other main right-wing contenders. On Tuesday, he made much of a phone call with Donald Trump, a double-edged sword given the overwhelming unpopularity of the former American president in France. Donald Trump didn’t endorse him officially and said nothing of the call.
On Sunday, the far-right candidate received an unexpected boost when Valérie Pécresse borrowed some of his trademark lines (also an old far-right soundbite) during her biggest rally to date. She mentioned the “Great Replacement” (of the French population by non-White immigrants) and “French of paper” (administrative French) as opposed to “French of the heart” (native French).
As everything is intertwined, Eric Zemmour probably hopes that Valérie Pécresse’s stumblings could detach enough voters from her bloc to his benefit. True, their electorates overlap. They are older, wealthier, and more educated than Marine Le Pen’s voters. The Les Républicains candidate also has a soft spot: at this point, only 47% of her voters say their choice is final, compared to Eric Zemmour’s 60% and Marine Le Pen’s 69%. As to those who could change their mind, 38% would pick likely candidate Emmanuel Macron as a second choice, 19% Eric Zemmour and 15% Marine Le Pen.
As a former columnist for le Figaro, the daily Bible of the conservative right, he enjoys name recognition. It should be remembered that he gave his first political speech at the invitation of the head of Les Républicains, Laurent Wauquiez, in January 2019. As a result, Valérie Pécresse left her party for five months denouncing an unacceptable drift to the far-right.
Eric Zemmour is not only trying to win Valérie Pécresse’s voters but also Marine le Pen’s senior executives. Since January, dozens of elected officials have left her to join the former polemicist. Most of them have explained their departure by criticizing Marine Le Pen’s strategic decision to soften her tone and appeal to a broader audience than the traditional right-wing voters. They have also complained about her harsh management. It was not coincidental that defectors left one by one to create a devastating dripping effect.
On Tuesday, Marine Le Pen denounced a “sabotage” operation “which consists of staying for weeks and weeks in the nuclear heart of the organization of a presidential campaign to obtain information and incidentally in some cases to transmit it to a political competitor.” “I consider it to be high treason,” she went on saying. “I call it the slug strategy, not only because the slug is slow but also because it is sticky,” she added.
Eric Zemmour still faces an uphill battle. Voters consider him the most worrying candidate. According to a Le Monde poll, he would suffer a landslide defeat if he was to face Emmanuel Macron in a runoff. With his offensive comments, he is “recreating a glass ceiling that we managed to get rid of,” said Marine Le Pen’s right-hand man Jordan Bardella, on Sunday. A vote for him “will ensure the re-election of Emmanuel Macron,” he added. That is not exactly the argument Eric Zemmour uses to appeal to his voters.
Quote of the day
“If you date down the street… Then vote down the street!”
Online dating giant Tinder and civil rights NGO A Voté announced Wednesday the launch of a campaign to encourage young people to register to vote and get “GenZ matched with voting!” “If you date down the street… Then vote down the street!” says an ad. In France, low voter registration affects 51% of 25-29-year-olds, according to the work of sociologist Céline Braconnier.
Graphic of the day
Countdown
53 Days until the presidential election’s first round
67 Days until the presidential election’s second round
Thanks for reading, see you tomorrow