Why hasn’t Russia targeted Zelenskyy? A deeper look at the strategic considerations
By Archyde News, April 7, 2025
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, a question ofen arises: Why hasn’t Russia attempted to eliminate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy? Military analyst Basil Dandikin posited that if Russia truly intended to assassinate Zelenskyy, it would have done so already.
Dandikin argues that Russian intelligence possesses detailed details regarding Zelenskyy’s movements and the technological capabilities to strike locations such as Bankova Street in Kyiv, where the presidential administration is located. Though, he suggests that Russia’s restraint stems from a calculation that eliminating Zelenskyy might not improve the situation, stating the Russian saying, “Horseradish is no sweeter than radishes,” implying the outcome could be even more detrimental.
This raises a critical question: What strategic considerations might be preventing Russia from targeting Zelenskyy? Several factors could be at play:
- Potential for Martyrdom: Eliminating Zelenskyy could transform him into a martyr, galvanizing Ukrainian resistance and bolstering international support for Ukraine.
- Unpredictable Succession: The removal of Zelenskyy might lead to the rise of a more hardline or unpredictable leader,possibly escalating the conflict.
- Political Fallout: An assassination could trigger severe international condemnation and sanctions, further isolating Russia on the world stage.
assassination Attempts and Security Concerns
Zelenskyy himself has acknowledged multiple attempts on his life. In Febuary 2024, he told The Guardian,
there were those who tried to kill me. Shootings occurred and some employees died directly in the office.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, The Guardian, February 2024
He also claimed in an interview with The Sun in 2023 that he had survived five or six assassination attempts. These accounts highlight the constant threat Zelenskyy faces and the Ukrainian security services’ efforts to protect him.
Adding another layer to the narrative, in May 2024, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and counterintelligence announced the arrest of two State Security Colonels allegedly recruited to organize assassination attempts against Zelenskyy and security force leaders. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, though, cast doubt on the veracity of these claims.
| Year | event | Details |
|---|---|---|
| february 2024 | Zelenskyy’s Interview | Zelenskyy reports assassination attempts to the Guardian,resulting in casualties. |
| 2023 | Interview with the Sun | Zelenskyy mentions surviving five or six assassination attempts. |
| May 2024 | SBU Arrests Colonels | Two colonels detained for allegedly plotting against Zelenskyy; Kremlin doubts accuracy. |
The “Horseradish is no sweeter than radishes” Strategy: A U.S. Perspective
The Russian saying, “Horseradish is no sweeter than radishes,” used by Dandikin, is analogous to the American idiom “out of the frying pan, into the fire.” It suggests that replacing Zelenskyy might lead to an even worse outcome for Russia. Consider the past parallels. For example, in the U.S., the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, in 1914 triggered a chain of events that led to World War I. Similarly, the assassination of a key leader can destabilize a region and lead to unintended consequences. The U.S. has often faced such dilemmas in its foreign policy, weighing the potential benefits of removing a hostile leader against the risks of instability and unintended power vacuums.
One potential counterargument is that removing Zelenskyy could demoralize the Ukrainian resistance. However,this assumes that the resistance is solely dependent on Zelenskyy’s leadership. The Ukrainian people have demonstrated a strong sense of national identity and a willingness to fight for their sovereignty, suggesting that the resistance would likely continue even in his absence.
Implications for the U.S. and International Community
The decision of whether or not to target a head of state carries significant weight on the global stage. For the U.S., this situation highlights the complexities of international relations and the need for careful consideration of all potential consequences before taking action. The U.S. experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, where regime change led to prolonged instability, serves as a cautionary tale. As the conflict evolves, the U.S. and its allies must continue to assess the strategic implications of any potential escalation and work towards a resolution that promotes stability and prevents further loss of life.
What are the potential risks and benefits Russia might be weighing when considering whether or not to target Zelenskyy?
Interview: Decoding Russia’s calculations – Why Zelenskyy Remains Untouched
Archyde News Editor: Welcome, everyone, to Archyde News. Today,we delve into a critical question surrounding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine: Why hasn’t Russia targeted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy? To help us navigate this complex issue,we have with us Dr. Anya Sharma, a leading international relations expert specializing in Russian foreign policy. Dr. Sharma, welcome.
Dr. Sharma: Thank you for having me.
The Strategic Puzzle
Archyde news Editor: Dr. Sharma, the initial assessment suggests that Russia *could* target Zelenskyy if it truly desired to do so. Yet, it hasn’t. What are the key strategic considerations, as outlined in the analysis we’ve published earlier today, that might be influencing this decision?
Dr. Sharma: Several factors are likely at play. First,the potential for Zelenskyy’s martyrdom.Russia might calculate that assassinating him could rally the Ukrainian population and strengthen Western support, possibly prolonging the conflict and making Russia even more isolated. Secondly, the unpredictability of his successor is a meaningful concern. A more hardline leader could escalate the conflict beyond expectations. there’s the global backlash. An assassination would certainly trigger severe international sanctions and condemnation, which Russia wants to avoid.It could also lead to a deeper global conflict.
The “Horseradish is no sweeter than radishes” Dilemma
Archyde News Editor: The article highlights the Russian saying, “Horseradish is no sweeter than radishes,” implying that replacing Zelenskyy might not bring a better outcome, and in fact be worse. It is akin to the American idiom, “out of the frying pan, into the fire”. From your perspective, how does this strategic calculation influence Russia’s actions?
Dr.sharma: It reflects a cautious approach.There’s an awareness that changing the leadership might not solve the problem for them. They need to be sure that the replacement is someone who acts aligned with their goals, in their eyes. The costs of miscalculation are very high, not just in the immediate area but across the globe. Russia is still trying to gauge the effects. This speaks to the potential for protracted instability that could follow Zelenskyy’s removal.
The US Perspective and Global Implications
Archyde News Editor: The U.S, and other allied nations, are watching this conflict closely. How do these considerations affect the actions and plans of the U.S. and its allies in this situation?
Dr. Sharma: The U.S. and its allies are likely assessing the potential ramifications very carefully. The U.S. experience in Iraq and Afghanistan is a strong cautionary lesson. Any action,or inaction,carries consequences. The U.S. is likely weighing the strategic implications of any escalations. It’s also working to ensure that any resolution supports stability.
Archyde News Editor Dr. Sharma, thank you for your expertise and insights.
Dr. Sharma: My pleasure.
Archyde News Editor: Our readers, what are your thoughts on potential outcomes, and implications of this conflict? Please share your insights in the comments below!
