Zelensky “recapture 6,000 square kilometers in September”
Fast forward in the Northeast region
Russia’s fiscal deficit in August due to Western sanctions
Ukrainian forces are pushing the Russians in the north and speeding up their retake. The restoration area is rapidly expanding around Kharkiv, the second city. It is evaluated that the Ukrainian military has prepared a turning point for a counterattack.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address on the 12th (local time) that “Ukrainian forces have recovered more than 6,000 km2 in the south and east from September to today (12th). professed If President Zelensky’s remarks are true, the area recaptured by Ukrainian forces is ten times that of Seoul (605 km2).
The advance of Ukrainian forces accelerated. According to the Associated Press, Ukrainian forces have recovered about 20 villages in 24 hours. Olech Sinehuvou Kharkiv, governor of Kharkiv, claimed that “in some areas, our troops have reached the Russian border.”
The Russian army also agreed to withdraw. However, the retreat was denied. It is an explanation that they withdrew to reorganize the army in order to concentrate firepower in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of eastern Ukraine. According to the American War Research Institute (ISW), a US defense think tank, it is known that the Russian army fled in the north, leaving behind tanks and other munitions.
In a week, the Russians occupied the territory they had occupied in the past five months. Russia has been slowly advancing westward from the eastern region (Donbass) since last April. Konrad Musika, head of military power analysis firm Rochan Consulting, said, “The Russian army had too few troops in the eastern region to defend Kharkiv.
The retreating Russian forces are expected to regroup in Luhansk Oblast. It is predicted that how the Ukrainian military will use Izium, a city near Luhansk, will affect the future war situation. The New York Times (NYT) analyzed that “If Ukraine occupies Izium, it will have a transport route to receive supplies from Kiiu.”
Despite the successive victories, prudence was raised. U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blincoln said: “Ukrainian forces have made significant advances in the northeast, but it is too early to say exactly what has changed.”
A challenge arose in Ukraine as well. Although the results were achieved thanks to the concentration of all forces in one place, it is pointed out that supply problems will arise if the war progresses for a long time. John Blocksland, professor of security at the Australian National University, said, “If supply lines expand and supply problems arise in fuel and troops, Ukraine’s power could weaken.” .
As uncertainty remains in the war situation, support from Western countries, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), is expected to increase. A senior U.S. Department of Defense official said in an interview with the Financial Times (FT) that “the U.S. and its allies are considering long-term support of heavy equipment such as fighters to Ukraine.”
Cracks began to form inside Russia. Dissatisfaction with President Vladimir Putin has been amplified due to successive defeats. The New York Times reported that more than 40 Russian provincial lawmakers signed a bulletin board calling for Putin’s resignation.
Russia’s economy is deteriorating. The FT reported that the Russian government’s fiscal balance would record a deficit of $5.9 billion in August this year. From January to July this year, it posted a surplus of $8 billion. This is due to the closing of Nordstream-1, a gas pipeline connected to Europe, and the delivery volume of gas has been reduced by 20% compared to the previous one. The Central Bank of Russia predicted that the economy could deteriorate due to a decrease in exports.
Reporter Oh Hyun-woo ohw@hankyung.com