Israel – The Ynet website pointed out the military and political challenges that await Rafah in the coming hours, noting “a dilemma surrounding the situation in the southern city, where the war is supposed to end.”
The Hebrew website said that the eyes of the world are turning to Rafah, but until a decision is made on a possible prisoner exchange deal, Israel insists that the military operation in the city is a fait accompli, and the Israeli army has already approved the plans for the operation, but the Americans are opposed, and the United Nations The United States is worried, the Egyptians are threatening a crisis, and Hamas is threatening to ignite fires, and in the meantime more than a million Palestinians are stationed in an area of 64 square kilometers.
In this context, Ynet pointed out that regarding 3 months ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli army to prepare for an operation in Rafah, even though the city was filled with more than a million displaced people, and this raised concern among the international community.
Although the army had approved plans for the operation in Rafah 3 weeks before Netanyahu’s announcement, the latter has continued since then, in his own way, and in shorter and shorter periods, to announce and warn once more and once more that the operation in Rafah is regarding to begin, and that this is a necessary step. On the path to “complete victory” over the factional movement. Three months have passed since the first statement, and here it seems that the threat phase has ended and the moment of truth has arrived. It is estimated that a decision will be taken in the coming hours or days that will mark the end of the battle in the Gaza Strip.
Ynet pointed out that Rafah is located in the middle of the “Philadelphia axis,” which extends from the Mediterranean Sea eastward, along the 15-kilometre border between Israel and Egypt. Israel believes that controlling the axis or neutralizing it (perhaps through an underground barrier) will enable it to encircle the Strip and isolate the movement of factions from the Sinai Peninsula.
The website said that the humanitarian aspect is crucial in everything related to a possible military operation in Rafah. At the height of the war, the population of Rafah was regarding 1.3 million people, the majority of whom were displaced from the northern Gaza Strip. At the beginning of April, with the departure of the Israeli army from Khan Yunis, the displaced began By leaving Rafah and heading a little to the north, but there are no official numbers regarding their number.
The most crowded areas are located in the west and center of the city, and the density decreases in the eastern part of the city of Rafah, which is closest to the border with Israel.
Fighting with Hamas and Islamic Jihad members stationed in alleys and tunnels might claim the lives of thousands, and this is why the international community opposes any operation.
Even with the optimistic Israeli assumption that evacuating the majority of the population to the humanitarian zone between the Al-Mawasi area and Khan Yunis will take regarding two to three weeks, it is not clear how an immediate military operation would take place.
As for possible scenarios, Ynet said that in the coming hours/days, the mediators may lead Israel and Hamas to agree on a deal according to which all Israeli prisoners and abductees will be released in exchange for the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners, and a long ceasefire. According to US efforts in recent months, the agreement may include a basis for normalization agreements with Saudi Arabia and strengthening the regional alliance once morest Iran and its proxies. In such a case, it would involve a significant entry of the Palestinian Authority into the Strip as an alternative to Hamas rule. Even in this scenario, the planned operation in Rafah would be de facto cancelled. Another possibility is that the factional movement will reject the terms of the deal. Such a situation might put Israel between a rock and a hard place: it will be left without recovering the prisoners and without international support to enter Rafah.
At this time, the Israeli army, which seems detached from political developments, has been preparing for months to enter Rafah in stages. Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy has approved all action plans, military teams have completed their preparations, and tanks have been deployed around the city.
According to the website, the process will advance according to the stages of population departure, and will leave the option of stopping in favor of negotiations or reaching a future agreement.
Source: Ynet
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2024-05-04 02:09:02
