2023-07-02 22:05:16
American analyst Valerie Hudson believes that it is certain that the leader of the Russian private military group, “Wagner”, Yevgeny Prigozhin, will not be on his list following the attempted rebellion that he made on the 24th of last month. An utterly unsavory character, Prigozhin had reinvented himself several times since his nine-year prison term for fraud and bribery while in his twenties, and at one point became the caterer for the Russian army and the Kremlin.
And Hudson – a university professor at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at the University of Texas – adds in a report published by the American “National Interest” magazine that a man like Prigozhin would never have been content with the food trade.
Prigozhin used his huge wealth, which he collected from the food trade and gambling, to undertake two adventures related to the Russian state. The first was the establishment of the Electronic Research Agency, which was accused by the US Department of Justice of interfering in the US presidential elections in 2016, and the second was the establishment of the “Wagner” group (a private military company). .
The Wagner Group came together under Prigozhin’s leadership in 2014 to offer Russian President Vladimir Putin the possibility to logically distance himself from the paramilitary operations that took place first in Crimea, then in Syria and Africa, and now in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Indeed, Hudson said, the Wagner Group acted as Putin’s private army.
Not only did this lead to more wealth for Prigozhin, as a raid on the group’s headquarters in St. Petersburg in the past few days seized four billion rubles (regarding $48 million), but it also provided him with a small but combat-experienced army.
The provision of money and armed men is a measure of real political power, even in Russia. But since Russia is an authoritarian state, such power cannot be allowed to remain too close to Russia itself.
And there were indications that the Putin regime would blame Prigozhin for war crimes committed in Ukraine, no doubt committed by the Wagner Group, but also by official Russian forces, killing two birds with one stone.
Moscow has sought to deploy the Wagner Group’s private paramilitary forces to the front lines, with a high rate of attrition, gradually weakening the group as a dangerous fighting force. Meanwhile, the combat-experienced Wagner Group fought the Ukrainians more efficiently than the official Russian conscript army. And Prigogine understood what was happening. A few months ago, the commander, who was largely shrouded in secrecy, began posting public videos in which he used allusions to criticize the regime.
true patriot
Prigozhin attacked not President Putin himself, but the president’s inner circle, in particular the Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin, Gerasimov and Shoigu were accused of appropriating funds intended for the purchase of ammunition and deceiving Putin regarding the true state of Russia’s position in Ukraine.
In fact, Prigozhin accused Gerasimov and Shoigu of treason during wartime, and portrayed himself as a true patriot, open and honest in his words.
Prigozhin’s new high status among ordinary Russians was a very clever ploy to make it more difficult for Putin to destroy the Wagner Group and assassinate Prigozhin himself.
Without a doubt, the assassination was a real concern for Prigozhin, given the large number of Russia’s elite and bureaucrats who have recently died under suspicious circumstances.
Most insider commentators feel that the turning point for Prigozhin to continue the offensive over the past few days — as he captured Rostov-on-Don and crept within 200 kilometers of Moscow — was in fact an attempt by the Putin regime to strike at the Wagner Group’s leadership. »which were planned to appear as a tragic case of friendly fire.
Hudson added that Prigozhin is not stupid, but rather one of the most cautious characters. He apparently decided that the only maneuver left for him was to raise the stakes for Putin himself.
Of course it would have been impossible for an army of 25,000 men, at most, to take Moscow. But Prigozhin was able to start “the march for justice, portraying himself as a true Russian patriot amidst a den of bureaucratic and political thieves.”
Even if he does not go far, Prigozhin will reveal to the world that Putin is a paper tiger, emboldening others within Russia’s power circle. The best case scenario was that Putin would negotiate with him to avoid a bloody fight in the Russian heartland.
Prigozhin got the best-case scenario, with Putin asking Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to negotiate a deal whereby Prigozhin would reportedly go into exile in Belarus.
The future of the Wagner Group is unclear, and it was reported that the tyrannical African rulers were once once more reassured that the units of the Wagner Group would remain to support their fragile regimes.
Driving from exile
The group’s operatives in Ukraine will face interrogation under the official leadership of the Ministry of Defence. All in all, Wagner has been seriously weakened, despite Prigozhin’s hopes to lead it from exile.
Prigozhin himself will live another day, and he has seriously damaged Putin’s reputation as a powerful figure who has been carefully cemented not only on the world stage, but also in Russia itself, where weakness breeds wolves in droves. This was a brilliant strike by a player with a very weak hand.
Because of this, Hudson added, Prigozhin will not list. He might meet his fate with Novichok, or worse. At the time of writing, Prigozhin was headed to Minsk, but there were rumors that once he got there, he would be put on a plane to Moscow.
What is most interesting to ponder, Hudson says, is whether Prigozhin, in his bold choice, has indeed given Putin the same fate, only time will tell.
• 25,000 men is the strength of Wagner’s army, and it cannot seize Moscow.
• Prigozhin did not attack President Putin himself, but attacked the President’s inner circle, in particular the Chief of the General Staff and the Minister of Defense.
• Moscow has sought to deploy the private “Wagner” paramilitary group to the front lines in Ukraine, with a high rate of attrition, gradually weakening the group as a dangerous fighting force.
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