2023-08-23 23:37:30
Everything indicates that Yevgeny Prigozhin is dead. The boss of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner, which started a rebellion once morest the Kremlin last June, is on the passenger list of a plane that crashed in Russia. Telegram groups associated with this shadow army have confirmed the news of his assassination.
The warlord seems to have been the victim of a pendulum swing from the Kremlin, two months to the day following the aborted mutiny of his paramilitary group. According to the Russian press agencies, the name of Evgueni Prigojine is on the list of passengers of this plane which was to connect Moscow to Saint-Petersburg.
Ten people, including crew members, were recorded as being inside the aircraft. Eight bodies were found at the crash site, an emergency services representative was quoted by RIA Novosti as saying. TASS reported seven bodies recovered.
Amid this speculation, official Wagner newswires confirmed their leader’s death citing inside sources. Dimitriï Utkin, the number two of the group, would also be among the victims.
Russian military bloggers claim local air defense was responsible for the downing of the private plane belonging to Wagner. Videos of the crash circulating on social media support this thesis of a deliberate attack.
The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency has announced that an Investigation has been launched to determine the “Cause” of the Aircraft Crash in the Tver Region which Killed all 10 Passengers onboard including Yevgeny Prigozhin. pic.twitter.com/1kguZWO4lr
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) August 23, 2023
Dead or not, Yevgueni Prigojine had been dragging a target behind his back for weeks. This ex-prisoner, who enjoys significant support in Russia, was sharply criticized by the Kremlin following his failed coup attempt last June.
Russian President Vladimir Putin bluntly threatened Prigojine once the mutiny was thwarted. “Those who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms once morest their comrades in arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it, ”he said shortly following the end of the rebellion. Wagner’s soldiers had notably shot down a radar plane of prime importance for the Russian army when their guns had turned towards Moscow.
Those who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms once morest their comrades in arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it.
Before Prigozhin, Surovikin
A few hours earlier, the Russian press agencies announced the resignation of a general of the Russian army close to the Wagner group, Sergei Surovikin. Nicknamed “General Armageddon”, he was one of the main commanders of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine.
“Army General Sergey Surovikin has been removed from his post,” the state news agency RIA Novosti said on Wednesday morning, citing a source familiar with the internal army movements.
This influential general had disappeared from public view since the failure of Wagner’s rebellion. He has long been seen as the paramilitary group’s main ally in the Russian Defense Ministry, although Prigojine claimed the leadership of Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.
Predictable, but destabilizing
The possible death of Prigojine will “profoundly influence politics in Russia”, underlines Russian professor Vera Grantseva, who teaches at Sciences Po Paris and at the School of Advanced Studies in Economics in Moscow.
The event was undoubtedly foreseeable, she believes. “Prigozhin did something that was unprecedented in Russian politics for the past 30 years. He threatened Putin, he publicly said Putin was wrong. He showed the example to other participants in Russian politics that it is possible to revolt once morest Putin and threaten him, ”explains the one who worked from 2008 to 2016 at the town hall of Saint Petersburg as an expert in international relations. .
It therefore became “essential” for President Vladimir Putin to reaffirm his leadership, she said.
Even if, in the short term, Prigozhin’s death ends the destabilization created by the mutiny, it might create an even greater schism in society, Ms Grantseva believes. In the camp of those who support the war in Ukraine, there will now be “a very deep division” compared to those who had remained loyal to Prigozhin and who now call the crash a “terrorist act”.
Power struggles
While Prigozhin’s death may have been orchestrated to reassert Putin’s leadership, it does nothing to resolve divisiveness within the regime, notes Margarita M. Balmaceda, a research associate at Harvard’s Ukrainian Research Institute.
The war in Ukraine has allowed several actors — and not only the Wagner group — to polish up their military arsenal in an attempt to extend their influence. “The war in Ukraine is a framework within which different groups seek to increase their military power under the guise of the support they offer to the central power, but while seeking to advance their interests”, she underlines , citing in passing the Chechen President, Ramzan Kadyrov, but also several companies, including Gazprom, which would act in this way.
Over the next few months, they will carefully choose the cards they want to play, keeping an eye on the reactions of the Kremlin. But Mrs. Balmaceda does not believe that the Putin regime is on the verge of its fall. “It would take a weaker economy for it to fall in the next few months. »
With Agence France-Presse
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