In the Tokyo foreign exchange market, the yen traded once morest the US dollar at the low 150 yen level, near the lowest level in 32 years. Against the backdrop of the rise in US long-term interest rates, the yen-selling and dollar-buying pressure continues as the interest rate gap between Japan and the US widens. On the other hand, the yen-buying intervention by the Japanese currency authorities is also cautious, and so far the price has not reached a new low.
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Yukio Ishizuki, Senior Forex Strategist at Daiwa Securities, said, “The dollar/yen moves are consistent with the rise in US interest rates.” Compared to the movement of the dollar and the yen, the movement is calm.” He said, “It’s difficult for the dollar/yen to rise (yen to lower) because the authorities are keeping a close eye on Tokyo time. There is a possibility that the yen will hit a new high (yen’s low) during overseas time.”
10-year U.S. Treasury yields briefly climbed to 4.24% in Thursday’s trading, the highest since June 2008. The Asian time on the 21st also remained high at around 4.23%.In response to the hawkish remarks of the US financial authorities, there is an awareness of the prolongation of aggressive monetary tightening, and in the swap market, the US policy interest rate is expected to rise in the first half of 2023.reach 5%It incorporates the view of
Mr. Ishizuki said, “U.S. interest rates are like a string with a broken string, and I can’t help but feel that interest rate expectations are a little too high. , “If that happens, it wouldn’t be surprising if the interest rate in the US were to support the 150-yen level.”
On the other hand, the market is becoming more cautious regarding the yen-buying intervention by the Japanese currency authorities.
Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on the 21st that the yen had weakened to the 150-yen level. “Excessive volatility due to speculation is unacceptable,” he said.
Yuji Saito, Head of Foreign Exchange at Crédit Agricole Bank, said, “The one-week implied volatility of the dollar and the yen is also close to the level at the time of the intervention on September 22, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is well above 70, which indicates the dollar is overbought.” He said, “Since Finance Minister Suzuki has put a lot of restraint on the situation, and speculators are also talking regarding it, it’s not surprising that intervention might occur at any time.”