Experts are counting on the seriousness of international efforts and pressure on the parties to the conflict to complete a political agreement, as it is the only way to achieve a real breakthrough in the country, which has been at war since 2015 between the legitimate government backed by Legitimacy Support CoalitionHouthi coup militia backed by Iran.
distribution of influence
Yemeni political writer Waddah al-Jalil expects that the political settlement aimed at by external and international pressures will center around:
• Forcing the combatants to accept what is on the ground, and distributing influence among them according to an agreement that stops the war, albeit temporarily.
• The agreement will not end the war, and will not even provide the possible ground for ending it.
• Al-Jalil is unlikely to see a complete breakthrough in Yemen this year, because "The accumulations of the past years cannot be resolved in one year except by a miracle, or the accelerating pace of events that lead to détente, and there is no indication of that at present.".
• The international community and the major powers are working on managing the crisis without finding radical solutions to it, and it is very clear that even if these powers wanted a solution, it would be to persuade all parties to share influence and enter into an agreement that preserves what is under its control for each party.
• This situation will put the coup militias in a better position than others, especially the legitimate government and the rest of the parties, because these militias have strengthened their influence over the past years and tightened their grip on state institutions and penetrated into society and produced entities parallel to state institutions, and built their own economy at the expense of the state economy, and became militias Well-trained and armed, and even intelligence agencies.
• This is granted Houthi militias The ability to cohesion and benefit from the period of stopping the war in its favor, and the willingness to pounce on the other parties and veto all agreements, and put the international community and the major powers once once more before the fait accompli.
• In general, the new year may witness the usual movement of international parties and the United Nations through its envoy to hold negotiating meetings and reach a new round of consultations, and this matter is being arranged in Muscat, and it does not seem to provide fair opportunities for all or real peace and the restoration of the state soon.
living crisis
As for the Yemeni politician, Muhammad al-Faqih, he does not see a horizon for a real solution except with three intertwined facts:
• Existence of international pressure to undermine the influence of the Houthi militia.
• Strengthening the ability of government forces supported by the Legitimacy Support Coalition to regain influence in the capital and areas under Houthi control.
Addressing the humanitarian and social crisis that the country is suffering from, which has worsened over the past years to a historical and unprecedented level of hunger, poverty, acute shortages of food and medicine, and the collapse of the services system, while the Houthi militias seize state resources for the benefit of Iran.
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Yemeni experts who spoke to “Sky News Arabia” predicted that the crisis would witness two scenarios during the new year. The first is reaching a political agreement that paves the way for the peace process, and the other, on the contrary, is the military escalation between the parties to the conflict, or what can be described as precursors before the end.
Experts are counting on the seriousness of international efforts and pressure on the parties to the conflict to complete a political agreement, as it is the only way to achieve a real breakthrough in the country, which has been at war since 2015 between the legitimate government backed by Legitimacy Support CoalitionHouthi coup militia backed by Iran.
distribution of influence
Yemeni political writer Waddah al-Jalil expects that the political settlement aimed at by external and international pressures will center around:
• Forcing the combatants to accept what is on the ground, and distributing influence among them according to an agreement that stops the war, albeit temporarily.
• The agreement will not end the war, and will not even provide the possible ground for ending it.
• Al-Jalil rules out a complete breakthrough in Yemen this year, because “the accumulations of the past years cannot be resolved in one year except by a miracle, or the accelerating pace of events that lead to a breakthrough, and there is no indication of that at present.”
• The international community and the major powers are working on managing the crisis without finding radical solutions to it, and it is very clear that even if these powers wanted a solution, it would be to persuade all parties to share influence and enter into an agreement that preserves what is under its control for each party.
• This situation will put the coup militias in a better position than others, especially the legitimate government and the rest of the parties, because these militias have strengthened their influence over the past years and tightened their grip on state institutions and penetrated into society and produced entities parallel to state institutions, and built their own economy at the expense of the state economy, and became militias Well-trained and armed, and even intelligence agencies.
• This is granted Houthi militias The ability to cohesion and benefit from the period of stopping the war in its favor, and the willingness to pounce on the other parties and veto all agreements, and put the international community and the major powers once once more before the fait accompli.
• In general, the new year may witness the usual movement of international parties and the United Nations through its envoy to hold negotiating meetings and reach a new round of consultations, and this matter is being arranged in Muscat, and it does not seem to provide fair opportunities for all or real peace and the restoration of the state soon.
living crisis
As for the Yemeni politician, Muhammad al-Faqih, he does not see a horizon for a real solution except with three intertwined facts:
• Existence of international pressure to undermine the influence of the Houthi militia.
• Strengthening the ability of government forces supported by the Legitimacy Support Coalition to regain influence in the capital and areas under Houthi control.
Addressing the humanitarian and social crisis that the country is suffering from, which has worsened over the past years to a historical and unprecedented level of hunger, poverty, acute shortages of food and medicine, and the collapse of the services system, while the Houthi militias seize state resources for the benefit of Iran.
