2023-10-05 13:37:04
The WTO cuts its forecast for global trade growth in 2023 by more than half.
The WTO is concerned regarding a stronger-than-expected slowdown in global merchandise trade growth this year, undermined by geopolitical tensions and inflationbut expects a recovery in 2024. The volume of global merchandise trade is expected to increase by only 0.8% this year – while economists at the World Trade Organization (WTO) expected an increase in April of 1.7% – accompanied by real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation) of 2.6%.
“The projected slowdown in trade for 2023 is concerning, due to the negative consequences for the living standards of people around the world.”
In its report, the organization emphasizes that “the continued collapse of merchandise tradewhich began in the fourth quarter of 2022, led WTO economists to lower their trade forecasts for the current year, while maintaining a more positive outlook for 2024.
The WTO even revised its projections for 2024 very slightly upwards, estimating that trade growth should rebound next year to 3.3% – almost unchanged from the previous estimate of 3.2% – with real GDP growth stable at 2.5%. “Positive growth in exports and imports is expected to resume in 2024, but we must remain vigilant,” warns WTO chief economist Ralph Ossa in a statement.
The forecast does not cover world trade in commercial services but preliminary data shows, according to the WTO, that growth in the sector might be more moderate following the strong recovery in transport and travel last year.
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