2023-09-08 13:41:36
World rice prices reached their highest level in 15 years in August, increasing 9.8% month-on-month following India’s export restrictions, the United Nations said on Friday. for Food and Agriculture (FAO).
World food prices as a whole fell slightly last month (-2.1% compared to July), driven down by the decline in the prices of cereals, vegetable oils, meat and products. dairy.
After a small rebound in July, the FAO food price index started to decline once more, falling by 11.8% compared to the same time last year, and by 24% compared to the peak in March 2022, just following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But the prices of rice, the most consumed cereal in the world alongside wheat, are directly affected by the decision taken on July 21 by New Delhi to ban the export of non-basmati white rice (around a quarter of its usual exports of rice).
The objective is to preserve enough of this product for its inhabitants and to limit price increases, the prices having already increased before the summer.
In August, the FAO rice price index was up 31% year-on-year.
India accounts for 40% of world rice trade, ahead of Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan. The country sells quantities of broken rice to Africa, notably Senegal, Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Benin, as well as to Asia (Pakistan, Philippines) and the Middle East (Turkey, Syria). ).
While waiting for the new harvests, faced with “uncertainties as to the duration of the ban” decided by India and “fears that export restrictions will be extended to other types of rice”, the world rice market rice has become tense, stressed the FAO.
El Niño worries
Many States and actors have chosen to “keep stocks”, “renegotiate contracts” or “stop making price offers”, explained the UN agency in a press release.
To deal with the situation, the Philippines, for example, signed an agreement with Vietnam on Thursday to secure their rice imports for five years.
However, rice reserves in the world are abundant: according to the FAO, “global rice stocks at the close of the 2023-2024 marketing seasons are still expected to reach their highest level ever recorded”, with an estimated stock at 198 million tonnes. This corresponds to around 38% of forecast rice consumption over the same period.
But almost three-quarters of that volume is expected to be held by China and India and total rice reserves held by other countries are expected to fall to their lowest level in four years.
Some also fear that the El Niño weather phenomenon, generally associated with an increase in global temperatures, might disrupt upcoming harvests.
Concern over the impact of El Niño also fueled a slight increase in the FAO sugar price index in August (+1.3%), the organization noted.
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