Jakarta –
World oil prices rose amid the increasingly heated Middle East conflict. The rise in oil prices follows reports that Iran is preparing a retaliatory attack on Israel from Iraq in the coming days.
Quoted from CNBCSaturday (2/11/2024), Brent oil futures prices rose 29 cents, or 0.4% to US$ 73.10 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 23 cents, or 0.33% to US $69.49. However, this week, both contracts are still down more than 3% after rising 4% last week.
US news site, Axiosreported on Thursday that Iran was preparing to attack Israel from Iraq in the next few days. The report quoted two unnamed Israeli sources.
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“Any additional response from Iran may remain restrained, similar to last weekend’s limited Israeli attack, therefore primarily intended as a demonstration of force rather than an invitation to open warfare,” said SEB Research analyst Ole Hvalbye.
Iran and Israel have been involved in a series of retaliatory attacks in the wider Middle East war sparked by fighting in Gaza. Previous Iranian air attacks on Israel on October 1 and April were largely repelled, causing only minor damage.
Iran supports several groups currently fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. The US has asked Lebanon to announce a unilateral ceasefire with Israel to revive talks to end Israeli and Hezbollah hostilities.
On the other hand, Iran is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, Iran will produce 4 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2023.
Meanwhile, according to analysts and US government reports, Iran is on track to export 1.5 million bpd in 2024. This figure is up from an estimated 1.4 million bpd in 2023.
The change in oil prices was also supported by expectations that OPEC+ could delay plans to increase oil production in December for a month or more. This is due to concerns over weak oil demand and increasing supply. A decision could be made as early as next week.
(shc/ara)
Oil Prices and the Middle East: A Hilariously Upside-Down Situation
Welcome, ladies and gentlemen! Today, we’re diving headfirst into the rollercoaster that is the global oil market and the backdrop of Middle Eastern geopolitics. And you’ll want to keep your arms and legs inside the ride at all times because this is one bumpy trip!
So, what’s the scoop? Well, world oil prices are doing a bit of a happy dance, rising as tensions heat up in the Middle East. Isn’t it just delightful when we can correlate global crises with our petrol prices? It really puts the “fun” in “dysfunctional!” Brent oil futures have jumped up 29 cents to a whopping $73.10 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude has edged up 23 cents, floating at $69.49. Just remember: at these prices, the only thing feeling heavier than your wallet is your heart when you’re at the pump.
And speaking of pumping up tensions, you may have heard that Iran is reportedly prepping for a retaliatory strike against Israel from… wait for it… Iraq. Because if there’s one thing we’ve learned from the conflict, it’s to always escalate your location choices like a bad game of Risk! The adventurous spirit of geopolitical conflicts never fails to amuse, does it?
Now, don’t get too comfy; while prices are up slightly, they’re still down over 3% this week. So, if you were hoping for a triumphant return to that sweet, sweet $100-a-barrel life, I’m afraid you’re going to need to hold your horses—or maybe just buy a bike!
But wait, there’s more! Our friends at SEB Research have noted that any Iranian response might remain as restrained as a toddler at a birthday party—lots of energy but not quite sure how to unleash it without causing a major tantrum. They liken it to last weekend’s limited Israeli attacks, framing them more as a delicate flex rather than an all-out war invitation. Ah, nothing like a game of ‘who can play it cooler’ in international relations!
These skirmishes between Iran and Israel aren’t new, mind you. They’ve been throwing verbal punches (and the occasional missile) back and forth like they’re testing out for a role in an action film no one asked for. The plot thickens as Iran backs groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. I mean, it’s just like assembling a superhero team, except the theme is “Who can cause the most chaos?”
And as if that weren’t enough to fuel the ole supply and demand dance, Iran, a proud member of OPEC, plans to produce a staggering four million barrels of oil per day in 2023. Not to be outdone, analysts predict they will export around 1.5 million barrels daily next year. That’s a lot of oil; I hope there’s a sale on donuts to go with that coffee for all those folks getting jittery about rising prices!
In a final twist, stay tuned as OPEC+ might delay their plans to increase production. Apparently, they’d rather sit on their hands and watch the chaos unfold than pump out more oil. This is akin to watching your friend hold onto snacks at a party, only to find out they’re rationing for a rainy day that never seems to come!
In conclusion: Brace yourselves. As these tensions rise and fall like a poorly executed trampoline trick, oil prices will continue to be a reflection of the carnival-like atmosphere of the Middle East. Who knew warfare could be so economically enlightening? Just remember: next time you’re filling up, take a moment to appreciate that the price at the pump is not just another number; it’s a symbol of global disarray served with a side of irony!
Stay sharp and keep your sense of humor handy, folks!
Jakarta –
World oil prices have experienced an uptick amid the intensifying conflict in the Middle East, specifically ignited by growing tensions between Iran and Israel. This pricing surge coincides with alarming reports indicating that Iran is meticulously preparing for a retaliatory assault against Israel, potentially launching attacks from Iraq within the upcoming days.
According to a report from CNBC on Saturday (2/11/2024), Brent crude oil futures increased by 29 cents, marking a 0.4% rise to reach US$ 73.10 per barrel. Concurrently, US West Texas Intermediate crude oil saw an increase of 23 cents or 0.33%, pushing its price to US$ 69.49. Notably, despite this week’s increases, both contracts remain down over 3% following a notable 4% climb the previous week.
The US news outlet Axios highlighted on Thursday that Tehran is reportedly strategizing a military operation targeting Israel from Iraqi territory. This dramatic development was substantiated by information from two unnamed Israeli sources, amplifying concerns regarding the ongoing hostilities.
SEB Research analyst Ole Hvalbye commented, “Any additional response from Iran may remain restrained, similar to last weekend’s limited Israeli attack, therefore primarily intended as a demonstration of force rather than an invitation to open warfare.” This reflects the current precarious balance between assertiveness and restraint in military responses.
Iran actively supports various militant groups that are currently engaged in conflict with Israel, prominently including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. In a related diplomatic effort, the US has urged Lebanon to announce a unilateral ceasefire with Israel to facilitate discussions aimed at diminishing hostilities between Israeli forces and Hezbollah.
As a significant member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iran is poised to produce 4 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2023, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. The geopolitical landscape shapes not just regional stability but also global oil supply dynamics.
Meanwhile, analysts and reports from the US government indicate that Iran is on pace to export approximately 1.5 million bpd in 2024, marking an increase from an estimated 1.4 million bpd in the previous year, highlighting the nation’s crucial role in the global oil market.
The fluctuations in oil prices have also been influenced by the anticipation that OPEC+ might postpone plans to increase oil production scheduled for December, potentially delaying the decision for a month or longer due to escalating concerns over weak oil demand and rising supply. A pivotal decision regarding this matter could be reached as early as next week, showcasing the fluid nature of global oil production strategies.
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(shc/ara)
On, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. The ongoing tensions in this region have drawn the attention of major international players, including the United States, which has urged Lebanon to initiate a unilateral ceasefire with Israel as a step towards resuming discussions aimed at alleviating hostilities between Israeli forces and Hezbollah.
It’s essential to note that Iran, as a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), maintains a significant role in the global oil market. Data from the US Energy Information Administration indicates that Iran is expected to produce approximately four million barrels of oil per day in 2023. Additionally, forecasts suggest that Iran’s oil exports could increase to 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024, up from an estimated 1.4 million barrels per day in the current year.
The fluctuations in oil prices are also being influenced by expectations surrounding OPEC+’s production strategies. Concerns about weak oil demand and potential oversupply have led to speculation that OPEC+ may postpone plans to ramp up production scheduled for December. A decision regarding this matter is anticipated as early as the coming week, which could further affect market dynamics.
the interplay of escalating military tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, alongside the strategic decisions made by OPEC+, creates a volatile environment for global oil prices. As the situation continues to unfold, market observers and consumers alike will be watching closely for developments that may impact pricing at the pump. This blend of geopolitical maneuvering and market response highlights the intricate connections between international relations and economic factors, reminding us all of the delicate equilibrium that defines today’s world.
