Economist from the University of Indonesia (UI) Vid Adrison said that without the effect of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and social assistance (bansos), candidate pair number 02 Prabowo-Gibran would only win 42.38% in the 2024 presidential election.
Based on the vote count determined by the General Election Commission (KPU) on March 20, the number of votes for candidate pair number 02 was 96,214,691 votes or 58.59%.
Meanwhile, Vid conducted research to see whether there was a casual relationship between the distribution of social assistance ahead of the 2024 presidential election and Jokowi’s effect on Prabowo-Gibran’s vote share.
Gibran is the eldest son of Indonesian President Jokowi.
The vote acquisition of 42.38% was almost the same as the results of a survey conducted by Charta Politika in the period 4-11 January 2024, namely 42.2%.
This is related to myopic behavior in society, in this case voters consider (remember) the actions taken by Jokowi ahead of the 2024 presidential election compared to government activities or programs carried out two or four years ago.
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“There is myopic behavior in society. People think more, consider what is closer to happening. “For example, in the last month someone did something good, so what I remember is kindness,” said Vid, quoted from Abraham Samad’s YouTube channel, Speak Up, Monday (8/4).
Vid said that social assistance, which is part of the Social Protection program (Perlinsos), is indeed a government program whose budget has been approved by the DPR.
However, said Vid, the Jokowi government distributed massive social assistance ahead of the voting on February 14 2024.
Also read: Survey: Majority of Social Assistance Recipients Admit They Voted for Prabowo-Gibran
Vid stated that Jokowi’s action of distributing social assistance created unfair competition in the 2024 presidential election, because the incumbent (Jokowi) had access to social assistance.
Even though none of the incumbents are competing in the 2024 presidential election, there is Jokowi’s son who is running as a vice presidential candidate (cawapres).
From the research results, Vid said that the proportion of spending patterns for Perlinsos increased in the year leading up to the election, such as in 2008, 2013, and 2018.
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Without further ado, the budget increase will experience a drastic increase in the period 2022 to 2023 ahead of the 2024 election.
“When there is such a drastic increase, whatever the reason, there has been discussion with the DPR, but this is a pattern. Will this have any impact? “Studies show that there is indeed an impact due to myopic behavior,” emphasized Vid.
This means that the distribution of social assistance can increase someone’s ability to re-elect the person who gave/distributed social assistance.
This data was confirmed by the results of research by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) on 19-21 February 2024.
LSI stated that 24.8% of respondents admitted to receiving social assistance from the government. Of that number, 69.3% admitted to voting for presidential and vice presidential candidate number 02, Prabowo-Gibran.
“Indeed, the pattern of increasing discretionary spending, including Social Security, is increasing ahead of the election, and there is statistical evidence that this increases electability,” he added.
Vid explained that because there were no regulations, Perlinsos was used as a calming tool to increase the incumbent’s vote.
Then, said Vid, the source of Perlinsos funds comes from the community through taxes paid by the community. So, it is actually the right of poor people to get social assistance.
Jokowi Effect
Then, from the results of the research conducted, Vid explained that Jokowi’s effect was more significant than Prabowo’s effect in determining the vote share for candidate pair number 02.
Incumbents or candidates supported by incumbents will get a higher percentage of the vote, and the winner’s percentage of the vote is higher in areas with higher poverty.
To assess the Jokowi effect, research has taken into account elements of fanaticism. Vid measures Jokowi’s vote as a proxy for Prabowo-Gibran’s vote share in the 2024 presidential election.
When he used Prabowo’s vote share in the 2019 presidential election for the 2024 presidential election, it turned out to be insignificant. This means that militancy is not once morest Prabowo but once morest Jokowi.
“This means that the statistical evidence is strong, the Jokowi effect is stronger than the Prabowo effect,” said the economist who is also an expert in the 2024 presidential election dispute trial at the Constitutional Court (MK).
In fact, Vid said Jokowi visited 30 districts and cities from October 2023 to February 2024. Of the 30 districts and cities, 15 of them were located in Central Java. This is in contrast to Prabowo-Gibran who only visited 9 districts and cities.
This means that Jokowi’s visit was effective in increasing Prabowo’s votes in the 2024 presidential election and there is a strong relationship between the distribution of social assistance and Jokowi’s effect on Prabowo-Gibran’s vote share. (Z-1)
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