With the boom in places in Medicine there is a risk of bubble for 60 thousand scrubs

According to the latest calculations carried out for Il Sole 24 Ore on the retirements (with retirement at 68) of doctors who work for the NHS and who represent the most important segment (among hospital, family and outpatient doctors) from this year and in fact, until 2033 there will be the departure of over 105 thousand white coats, of which almost 40 thousand will already be recorded by 2026, the year in which the pension hump will begin to decline and will see its peak next year with over 13,500 exits. From 2034 to 2040 the years in which young aspiring doctors who register today will arrive on the market and in the next few years there will instead be a collapse of this exodus with only 38 thousand retirements in total.

In short, there will be much less need to replace doctors who retire just when the availability of new recruits increases: in the past, in fact – and today we are paying the consequences in terms of shortage – a maximum of 9-10 thousand candidates entered Medicine with then only 5-6 thousand specialization grants available for graduates, which for years caused the very sad phenomenon of the “training funnel” (medical graduates who might not specialize because the grants were few).

Now, however, there is a risk of the opposite phenomenon, that of a “job funnel”: compared to 19-20 thousand places in medicine, it is estimated that in the next few years 14-15 thousand scholarships will be guaranteed to specialize in the various branches (from cardiology to pediatrics , from anesthesia to radiology) to which are added another 2 thousand places for the specialization that trains family doctors.

If we count the dropout rates and the fact that graduates prefer specializations that offer higher earnings – some specialties such as emergency rooms unfortunately fill half of the places – we can estimate at least 14 thousand new medical specialists per year between 2034 and 2040: all things considered, 98,000 brand new white coats, however, compared to 38,000 exits, which makes 60,000 doctors more than necessary.

Of course, it cannot be ruled out that in the future more doctors will be hired in the face of an aging population (in reality today in terms of numbers we are already on average with the other OECD countries while there is a lack of nurses) and then there is always the private sector, but may not be enough: «Even for private doctors the pension hump is the same and then there might be fewer opportunities for young people as many pensioners already work in private healthcare today», warns Antonio Magi, secretary Sumai (Outpatient Specialists) who developed the data.