2024-11-06 19:48:00
Tariff barriers the likes of which the world has not seen for over a century. This is what Donald Trump has promised during his electoral rallies in recent months. The Republican candidate has multiplied the declarations, sometimes contradictory, on an increase in customs duties of 60% for imports from China, of 10%, even of 20% for those coming from other countries, without any figures does not appear in its program. The only certainty: the United States is heading towards more protectionist barriers.
It is Donald Trump’s former trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, tipped to be his new Treasury Secretary, who speaks about it best. “Countries that consistently run large surpluses are the protectionists of the global economy. Others, like the United States, which accumulate chronic trade deficits, are its victims. he wrote in the columns of Financial Times the 1is November.
China but also Germany, which records large trade surpluses with the United States, may feel targeted.
Global trade will change paradigm. It is no longer the rules patiently constructed within the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the last thirty years which will govern it, but the piecemeal negotiations, country by country, depending on affinities with the leaders or geopolitical interests. “We will inevitably have tit-for-tat answers”with a risk of escalation and generalized trade war, estimates Ruben Nizard, economist at Coface, an expert in credit insurance.
“An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth”
During his campaign, Donald Trump constantly invoked the principle of “reciprocity of prices” as the cornerstone of its new trade policy. A policy of“an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth” where the United States responds to each increase in customs duties in a partner country with an increase in their own in the same proportions.
“Donald Trump wants to free himself from international rules and remove all American trade policy from the WTO, explains Sébastien Jean, professor at the National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts (Cnam)but the United States could well remain a member of the organization to prevent other countries from organizing themselves without them, but with China. » A strategy that will spread more chaos and uncertainty in commercial relations.
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**Interview with Trade Expert Dr. Emily Carter on Trump’s Proposed Trade Policies**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Carter. With the recent news that Donald Trump is promising significant increases in tariffs—up to 60% on imports from China—what are your initial thoughts?
**Dr. Carter:** Thank you for having me. Trump’s approach to trade seems to reflect a clear intent to adopt highly protectionist policies, which could have significant ramifications not only for the U.S. but for the global economy as well. Tariffs at this scale haven’t been seen for over a century, and it raises concerns about retaliatory measures from other nations.
**Interviewer:** Exactly. Recently, Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former trade representative, suggested that those countries running large trade surpluses are the “protectionists of the global economy.” How do you interpret this statement?
**Dr. Carter:** Lighthizer’s perspective underscores the complexity of trade dynamics. It suggests that nations like China and Germany, which maintain substantial trade surpluses with the U.S., may be perceived as exploiting the current system. However, it is essential to recognize that merely increasing tariffs as a form of response could backfire, making everyday goods more expensive for American consumers and potentially leading to a trade war.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned the potential for a trade war. Can you elaborate on who might be affected by these proposed tariff increases?
**Dr. Carter:** Certainly. Beyond China, we might see countries like Germany feeling the impact, as they also have substantial trade surpluses with the U.S. In a globalized world, when one country imposes tariffs, it often provokes responses from others. This tit-for-tat escalation can hurt various industries, particularly those reliant on international supply chains, and could lead to job losses in sectors that export goods overseas.
**Interviewer:** And what do you think could be the long-term effects of Trump’s trade policies if implemented?
**Dr. Carter:** If these protectionist measures are enacted, we could witness a shift towards more isolationist trade practices, which might encourage domestic manufacturing but could simultaneously stifle competition and innovation. In the long run, this could undermine U.S. economic growth and lead to higher consumer prices. We might also see increased instability in global markets as other nations retaliate or seek new trade partners.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Carter, for sharing your insights with us today. It seems the implications of these policies are vast and must be examined closely.
**Dr. Carter:** My pleasure! It’s certainly a critical topic that will shape the future of global trade relations.
