In the spiral of violence in the Middle East, the USA remains Israel’s “iron” supporter. Experts believe Washington could even enter war with Iran. The issue could influence the outcome of the US elections.
At a meeting with the heads of state and government of the G7 countries, US President Joe Biden once again assured Israel of US support. On the social media platform
Since Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent military operation by the Israeli army in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, the spiral of violence in the Middle East has continued to spiral. According to the United Nations, more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since then.
Israel is currently fighting both Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Both are viewed as terrorist organizations by Germany, the USA and other countries. And both are supported in their fight against Israel by Iran, which recently carried out a massive missile attack on Israel – in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israel has now announced retaliatory measures, which Iran has said it would counteract.
The difficult relationship between Biden and Netanyahu
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions are not without controversy even in his own country. Many fear that his tough course will endanger the lives of the approximately 100 Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas. Criticism also comes from the USA. Israel’s most important ally has repeatedly pushed to avoid civilian casualties and allow more aid into Gaza. At the same time, the USA is by far Israel’s largest arms supplier.
The fact that Washington, as confirmed by Biden, is firmly on Israel’s side does not mean that the US President is also on Netanyahu’s side, says Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Washington think tank Atlantic Council: “It’s important “To distinguish President Biden’s relationship with the State of Israel from that with Prime Minister Netanyahu,” he told Deutsche Welle. “Biden has had a very volatile relationship with Netanyahu for years. But his commitment to Israel and Israel’s security is unwavering.”
US trust in Israel “significantly shaken”
That commitment, Panikoff said, was on full display when the U.S. helped Israel repel Iran’s missile attack on Tuesday. At the same time, the Biden administration is “frustrated with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision-making,” says former US intelligence official Panikoff. He cites Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as an example.
“The personal trust between Biden and Netanyahu is not very high,” says William Wechsler, also a Middle East expert at the Atlantic Council. Last week, the US was working to negotiate a 21-day ceasefire with Hezbollah on the Israel-Lebanese border.
“They had daily conversations with the Israelis about this idea – but while they were having these conversations, the Israelis were planning the operation to kill Nasrallah.”
The Biden government was not told anything about this, says Wechsler. “Whatever trust there was has been significantly shaken by this recent experience.”
Involvement of the USA in a possible Middle East war
After Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Tuesday, Netanyahu said: “Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it.” Observers fear Israel will fire missiles at targets in Iran in retaliation. This could lead to a further escalation of fighting in Lebanon and lead to a large-scale war with catastrophic consequences for the region and beyond.
Wechsler said such a war could mean Hezbollah could fire hundreds of thousands of rockets into Israel, overcoming the country’s famed air defense system. At the same time, Wechsler said, Iran could attack Israel with so many missiles that the US air defense stationed in Israel would be overwhelmed.
A war could also mean “Israel trying to forestall both attacks by trying to eliminate a large number of weapons.” However, it would endanger countless innocent people in whose houses and neighborhoods Hezbollah hides its weapons, said Wechsler.
If such an escalation were to occur, Wechsler suspects, the United States would most likely get involved, “if only because many Americans would be in danger: Americans living in Israel, American soldiers at our bases in the region, American allies in other parts of the Gulf region.”
US support for Israel could cost Harris votes
In the USA, the escalation in the Middle East could also have an impact on the upcoming presidential elections. It is true that most voters give domestic policy a greater role than foreign policy. The pro-Palestinian protests at many US universities last spring showed how important the USA’s stance towards Israel is to many – especially Democratic – voters.
In Michigan, a state with a significant Arab population, more than 100,000 Democrats abstained from the primary rather than vote for Joe Biden (who was still running at the time). The initiative came from opponents of the current government’s Israel policy.
In the 2020 presidential election, Biden won Michigan by just 154,000 votes. Things could also be tight in other swing states. Panikoff believes it is conceivable that her government’s support for Israel could cost Kamala Harris so many votes that it could swing the election outcome in Donald Trump’s favor.
Author: Carla Bleiker
