2023-09-12 00:45:00
Since the three departments issued a document to promote the implementation of the policy and measure of “recognizing a house without subscribing for a loan” for purchasing first-home loans, more than 20 cities have followed up and implemented relevant measures.
From the perspective of policy effects, according to Zhongzhi survey data, after the implementation of the policy, the willingness to buy property nationwide increased by 15 percentage points, with significant increases in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, of which Beijing and Shanghai both increased by about 20 percentage points.
At the same time, Pu Zhan, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said in an interview with the Economic Information Daily that after the policy was introduced, the market response was generally positive.
More than 20 cities have implemented the “recognize the house but not the loan” policy
According to monitoring data from the China Index Research Institute, from September 1st to 10th, more than 30 provinces and cities across the country have optimized property market policies, with more than 30 policy frequency. In order to seize the “Golden September and Silver Ten” market windows, various regions have accelerated the pace of policy implementation.
As far as the policy of “recognizing a house but not a loan” is concerned, Guangzhou and Shenzhen took the lead in implementing the policy of “recognizing a house but not a loan” for the first home on August 30. On September 1, Beijing and Shanghai fully followed up and implemented it. Exceeding market expectations, in addition to first-tier cities, more than 20 cities including Hefei, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Changsha, and Suzhou followed up and implemented relevant measures.
China Index survey data shows that after the implementation of the policy, the willingness to buy property nationwide increased by 15 percentage points, with significant increases in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, of which Beijing and Shanghai both increased by about 20 percentage points.
From the perspective of market performance, monitoring by the China Index Research Institute shows that the popularity of new and second-hand homes in first-tier cities has increased, and the popularity of visits and subscriptions for new home projects has increased significantly. In particular, high-quality sector projects have attracted higher attention from home buyers. Among them, Beijing, The Shanghai market is significantly more popular than other cities. Recently, some new housing projects have clearly withdrawn their price discounts. After the expectations of second-hand housing owners have improved, the bargaining space is also shrinking. Overall, housing prices are showing a certain stabilization trend.
However, the overall transaction scale of the national new housing market has not increased significantly, and it will take time for the policy to be effective. According to monitoring data from the China Index Research Institute, sales area in key cities across the country fell by more than 20% month-on-month last week (September 4-10). Among them, the sales area of Beijing and Shenzhen increased slightly last week. The sales area of new houses in Beijing last week was 103,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16.9%; the sales area of new houses in Shenzhen last week was approximately 38,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%. Shanghai and Guangzhou last week Transaction area decreased month-on-month.
According to data from Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate, affected by the volume of new home launches, the transaction area of new commercial residential properties last week was 56,600 square meters, a decrease of 79.56% from the previous month.
Lu Wenxi, a market analyst at Zhongyuan Real Estate in Shanghai, said that the online signing data is relatively lagging behind. In the short term, some early indicators of the new home market are still sustainable. For example, the number of customers for viewing new properties can still remain at a relatively high level. Some buyers are due to policies. Factors enjoy preferential treatment and promote the pace of market entry. If the supply pace can keep up this week, especially if there are good transaction data for first-time replacement properties, which have seen a significant increase in house viewings recently, market confidence will return.
Judging from the online signing data of second-hand houses, agency monitoring data shows that on the first day of the implementation of the policy of “recognizing a house without having to subscribe for a loan” (September 2), 699 houses were signed online in Shanghai in a single day. In the following days, it fell slightly and remained at 699 houses. Around 500 units, last Saturday (September 9) the single-day transaction volume reached a new high after the new policy, and the number of second-hand housing units signed online was 784 units.
A real estate agent in Shanghai told The Paper that after the introduction of the policy, the number of inquiries and views from customers had significantly increased, and the transaction cycle was shorter than before. “When the policy was not released, many buyers had a wait-and-see mentality and would not make an immediate decision. Now, after the policy is made clear, some buyers in need will sit down and further negotiate with landlords after finding suitable properties.” As some buyers enter the market, he said the effectiveness and sustainability of the policy require further observation.
Official survey on real estate market activity
After the introduction of the “recognize a house but not a loan” policy, relevant government departments are also conducting surveys on the effectiveness of the policy with real estate agencies and citizens.
On September 8, the official public account “Shanghai Survey” of the Shanghai Survey Corps of the National Bureau of Statistics released the “Survey on Shanghai Real Estate Market Activity” saying, “Recently, many places have introduced policies to further promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. In order to understand residents Regarding relevant policies and views on the future market, we are conducting a special survey on the activity of the real estate market.” The survey questionnaire set up questions such as “Do you plan to buy a house in this city?” “House purchase budget”, “In what areas do you think this city still needs to introduce real estate support policies” and other questions.
Among them, the question options “In what aspects do you think this city still needs to introduce real estate support policies?” include: canceling the purchase restriction policy in non-core areas, reducing the down payment ratio, reducing the mortgage interest rate, adjusting the social security scoring method for new home subscription points, Improve the pricing level of new homes in “price inversion” areas, adjust sales and price limit policies, reduce transaction taxes and fees, optimize policies in accordance with the principle of district-specific policies for areas with high inventory pressure, reduce existing mortgage interest rates, strengthen intermediary management, and standardize intermediary charging standards. Shorten the number of years of social security required to buy a house, etc.
In addition, according to The Paper, relevant departments of the Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center have organized leading intermediaries to hold a discussion meeting on September 4. The meeting mainly communicated the recent situation of the real estate market and understood the effects of the implementation of the new policy of “Recognizing a house but not a loan”. , including new customers, listing volume, transfer status, housing price fluctuations, etc. In the future, relevant departments of the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics will convene brokerage agencies to further discuss related issues in the near future.
Another media reported on September 5 that relevant departments and bureaus of national ministries and commissions, as well as housing and construction departments in other first-tier cities, are also asking relevant real estate agencies about the market situation in first-tier cities after the New Deal, and the inquiry content is quite detailed, including housing prices, transaction status and viewing conditions. Room heat, etc.
Chen Wenjing, market research director of China Index Research Institute, pointed out that in the short term, many places are expected to continue to accelerate the optimization of property market policies, reduce down payment ratios, lower mortgage interest rates, relax purchase restriction policies, etc. Driven by multiple new policies, it is expected that home buyers in core cities will be more enthusiastic about entering the market. The “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” market is promising, and first-tier cities may perform better than other cities. In terms of prices, in terms of new home prices, short-term development companies are expected to still focus on quick shipments and withdrawing funds. The overall price increase expectations and space are small. Among them, house prices in core first- and second-tier cities are expected to gradually stabilize, while house prices in third- and fourth-tier cities are still expected to fall. . In terms of second-hand houses, as the number of listings increases, the price of second-hand houses is not strong. It is expected that the price of second-hand houses will rise slightly in the short term, and the overall price will be stable.
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(Source of article: The Paper)
Article source: The Paper
Author of the article: Ji Simin Pang Jingtao
Original title: After the implementation of the “recognize the house but not the loan” policy, the willingness to buy a house increased: the transaction volume of new houses in Beijing increased by 16.9%, and the transaction cycle of second-hand houses in Shanghai shortened
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