2023-10-11 10:21:26
Ukrainians fear that the resurgence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will make us forget the Russian invasion of which they are victims. This will not be the case, according to Tanguy de Wilde d’Estmael (UCLouvain).
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits NATO headquarters in Brussels this Wednesday, in particular to ask its Western allies for more military equipment. This trip comes at a time when the international community has, since Saturday morning, eyes fixed on the situation in the Middle East.
Ukrainians today are afraid that their war takes second place to the concerns of their allies, with repercussions on the expected aid.
“Ukrainians have well understood the principle of modern communication. It is normal that they do not wait to remind people that their problem has been there for a long time and has not been resolved,” comments Tanguy de Wilde d’Estmaelprofessor of political science (UCLouvain), specialist in international relations.
Very different terrains
Tanguy de Wilde d’Estmael believes that the resurgence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not undermine support for kyiv. “What the Ukrainians expect is not what the Israelis and Palestinians expect. The Palestinians rely on humanitarian aid and political support to resolve the conflict. Israel also seeks political support, as well as a follow-up to American military support, but it does not have an absolute need for war materials like Ukraine.” Indeed, Israel already has a strong local defense industry, which supplies arms abroad. And anti-aircraft batteries are already installed on its territory.
“The differences between the two conflicts are important,” underlines Tanguy de Wilde d’Estmael. As the Ukrainian front expands over a thousand kilometersthe war zone of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict only concerns two fronts of limited scope. “It’s not the same war at all. Between Israel and Hamas, it’s more of an operation to eradicate fighters.”
Support for negotiating
The main point of comparison, it is the expectation of international support to resolve these conflicts. But we are still far from it on both sides…
Today, what can the international community still do, at least the States that wish to join forces to try to manage these conflicts?
In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it can do pressure to bring the protagonists around a table, and indicate to both parties that each will have to accept compromises. “But currently, the speech from European and American allies is: ‘We support Ukraine in the most favorable position with a view to a peace process and possibly reconciliation’ and not ‘We want a cease -le-feu'”, remarks Tanguy de Wilde d’Estmael.
“The solution, we know it (…) It is to create a Palestinian state which is not threatening to Israel. However, Hamas is itself destroying what Israel might offer.”
In the Middle East, “The way Americans and Europeans viewed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not going to change. Hamas was already considered a terrorist movement before and the power of the Jewish state was seen as extremist and reluctant to negotiate.”
“In Israel, we passed from a local conflict to a regional and then international level. We can try to bring it back to a local level. At the international level, things are already moving since several states accept the idea of living in peace with Israel. But so far, we have not managed to resolve the situation as planned: to provide progressive autonomy to see the creation of a state in Gaza, with security conditions for the Palestinians and the Israelis.”
“We know the solution,” continues the UCLouvain professor. “It is to create a Palestinian state that is not threatening to Israel. However, Hamas itself is destroying what Israel might offer. Israel had disengaged from Gaza… With the idea of exchanging territory for peace, Israel is not going to give land without a guarantee of security.”
American display of force
How will the Americans look in the medium term in the face of such an imbroglio? “THE Democrats generally provide the strongest support for Israel, but some republicans are more interested than the Democrats in the Israeli cause.” The question is played out more within the parties and between the parties than through a competition between Ukraine and Israel.
“There should therefore be no significant consequences for the future. Unless the weapons stocks are empty…”
The USA very quickly decided to deploy their aircraft carrier USS Ford in the region. “Nothing surprising, given that the United States has been Israel’s major military supporter since 1967,” notes Tanguy de Wilde d’Estmael.
In Ukraine, we did not witness such a display of force in the first days of the invasion… “Ukraine had relations with NATO, but was not a traditional ally of Western powers.” The presence of nuclear weapons on Russian territory also played its role in the Western approach: “No one wanted to put pressure on Moscow too quickly,” notes the UCLouvain expert.
“At the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we did not imagine the dimension that this conflict would take. Gradually, the type of weapons delivered to kyiv evolved, there was a change of degree, but not of philosophy. There should therefore be no significant consequences for the future. Unless the weapons stocks are empty…”
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