Trump is the first American former president to be imprisoned. Former prosecutor Elie Honig (49) regarding what is at stake.
The case is the first of four that are hanging over the Republican former president. Will America really get a convicted criminal as president?
EW asked former federal prosecutor and CNN analyst Elie Honig.
How much of a threat is this lawsuit to Trump? Compared to the misappropriation of state secrets and an attempted coup, buying off a porn star sounds like small beer.
Elie Honig: ‘Of all the crimes Trump is accused of, this is indeed the least serious. You might say the case isn’t so much regarding hush money or forgery, but regarding an attempt to steal the presidency.
‘An affair with a porn star is relevant information for the voter. By lying regarding this, Trump was guilty of election fraud.
“But Manhattan Attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment seems far-fetched to me. It concerns an offense from eight years ago. And if it is a crime, it is in the least serious category under New York law.
“When Trump left the White House in 2021, the Southern District of New York also considered whether he should be charged, but at the federal level. The conclusion was that technically there may be a crime, but the case is not strong enough to successfully prosecute. Bragg’s predecessor Cyrus Vance didn’t want to get his hands dirty either.’
Elie Honig (1975, Camden, New Jersey) is a senior legal analyst at CNN and has served as a federal and public prosecutor. In 2004-2012, he was an assistant organized crime attorney in the Southern District of New York, where he prosecuted members of the Gambino and Genovese mafia families.
So why did Bragg choose to prosecute Trump?
Honig: ‘Alvin Bragg is a friend and former colleague of mine at the Southern District of New York. But in his current position, he is an elected prosecutor in a district that votes overwhelmingly Democratic.
‘This gives him an enormous political incentive to take on Trump. Whether he wins or loses the case, he has made himself extremely popular with his supporters with his indictment, and everyone now knows him.
‘In addition, a year earlier, Bragg refused to prosecute Trump for fraud, who allegedly exaggerated the value of his assets to obtain cheap loans.
‘Bragg was the subject of a storm of criticism. If he had decided to dismiss the hush money affair as well, he would undoubtedly be removed from office at the next election.’
Trump has already been involved in more than four thousand lawsuits. But until recently these were only civil law matters. Has the presidency made him more criminal, or has he come under more scrutiny?
Honig: ‘Trump is not exactly someone who learns lessons from a confrontation with the law. But in the years I worked for the Southern District of New York, that didn’t, to my knowledge, lead to even the initiation of a criminal case.
‘With his behavior as president, Trump has in a sense brought his problems upon himself. Suppose he had conceded his loss following the 2020 election and helped Joe Biden ensure a smooth transition of power. Should he also have had to answer for paying hush money to a porn star?
At the same time, the lion’s share of Trump’s legal problems relate to his refusal to give up the presidency. His attempt to steal the elections and withholding state secret documents are offenses that should lead to prosecution.’
Still, it took regarding two and a half years before Attorney General Merrick Garland came up with an indictment.
Honig: ‘That might have been done much faster. Especially if Trump really poses such an existential threat to democracy, as is now being said. When something is really important, the justice system is able to do mountains of work in a surprisingly short time.
“Garland might have initiated this case as early as early 2022. Then we would have gotten rid of it now. Instead, we’re in the middle of an election year with a crazy race once morest time, and it’s essentially already too late.
‘Trump has every opportunity to buy time, which he makes good use of. And if he wins the election, it’s game over. A sitting president is immune from prosecution.”
So why did it take so long for Garland to act?
Honig: ‘I’m speculating, but I think that when Garland became minister, his first priority was to depoliticize the department. That had more or less become an instrument of Trump under his predecessor Bill Barr.
“Garland’s intentions were good. But that is why he initially chose to ignore the storming of the Capitol, hoping that the memory of it would eventually fade.
‘Yet the problem might not be ignored. When Congress began its own investigation in the summer of 2022, Garland had no choice but to appoint a special counsel.
‘Only prosecutor Jack Smith is also politically motivated. He is doing everything he can to complete the legal cases before the elections, while time should not be an issue according to ministry guidelines.
“No wonder the Supreme Court doesn’t want to play the game and has ignored Smith’s motions for haste.”
What are the chances that Trump will end up behind bars?
Honig: ‘It’s small. Then he must first lose the elections. The chance of this happening is regarding 50 percent. Then he must be found guilty, which a single juror can block.
‘After that he should be sentenced to prison, which I don’t see happening, especially with the hush money affair. Moreover, he will have to lose all his appeals.
“And even then, I don’t think he needs to serve his sentence in prison. Detaining a former president, who is entitled to the protection of Secret Service agents 24 hours a day, is a logistical nightmare. I wouldn’t be surprised if Biden pardons him – even if only to appease Trump’s tens of millions of undoubtedly angry supporters.”