Chinese President Xi Jinping has embarked on a trip to Moscow, which he has called a “journey of friendship, cooperation, and peace.” This visit comes following Beijing released a 12-point position paper calling for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war and brokered an unexpected rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The three-day visit will include a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom Xi has a longstanding friendship. The visit raises hopes of a breakthrough to end the war in Ukraine, but observers suggest that it is more regarding cementing the unrestricted partnership between the two leaders. China is Russia’s most important ally, and while it complies with Western sanctions and avoids providing military aid to Moscow, it maintains normal trade relations and will overtake Germany as the top importer of Russian oil this year. Some analysts believe that China might pressure Putin to move toward a truce and dialogue in Ukraine as part of its ambition to reshape the global order fairly.
Chinese President Xi Jinping embarked on a “journey of friendship”, “journey of cooperation” and “journey of peace” and is on his way to Moscow. A few weeks ago, Beijing released a 12-point position paper calling for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. A few days earlier, it had also brokered an unexpected rapprochement between longtime Middle East foes Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Xi’s three-day visit will begin on Monday, March 20, with a one-on-one meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The latter, whom the Chinese leader called his “best friend”, is now wanted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges.
The summit in Moscow will be the 40th meeting between the two men.
Xi Jinping was recently re-elected as China’s leader for an unprecedented third term and is seeking a bigger role for Beijing on the world stage. His visit has in some ways raised hopes of a breakthrough to end the war in Ukraine. The conflict, now in its second year, has claimed tens of thousands of lives, forced millions from their homes and caused widespread economic hardship. At the same time, global inflation is soaring, and food, fertilizer and energy supplies are in short supply.
Adding to hopes are not only Beijing’s mediation of a Saudi-Iran detente and proposals for a truce and dialogue between Moscow and Kiev, but also media reports that Xi intends to meet with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zeman following his summit with Putin. Lensky for virtual talks.
If it does happen, the conversation between Xi and Zelensky will be their first since February 2022, when Russian tanks rolled over the Ukrainian border.
Global Peacemaker?
Despite China’s global diplomacy, most observers say Xi’s state visit is more regarding cementing the “unrestricted” partnership with Putin he announced in 2022 than brokering peace in Ukraine. First, it’s because neither side appears ready or willing to end the fighting.
Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund, said: “Unless, and until, Russia and Ukraine have exhausted the will to continue fighting and are finding a way out of this conflict, there is no way it will end. And I don’t think China wants to meddle in.”
Glaser noted that China’s 12-point document on Ukraine is a summary of its position, not a “peace plan,” not least because it does not outline any specific areas where Beijing is willing to play a more active role.
Indeed, the document, released on the anniversary of the war, reflects China’s ambiguous position on the conflict. While the document supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and calls for a swift resolution to the war, it blames the crisis on what it calls a “Cold War mentality” of NATO’s eastward expansion and Western disregard for Russia’s security concerns. It also condemned Western “unilateral sanctions” on Russia, which Beijing has largely complied with over the past year.
“There’s an entire paragraph in the document regarding the need for humanitarian assistance, but where is China providing that assistance? So, it’s not a peace plan, and China is not playing the role of a peacemaker,” Glaser said.
She went on to add that the Saudi-Iran deal ends a seven-year estrangement and challenges the United States’ long-standing role as the main power broker in the Middle East. But that doesn’t mean China will now be the main mediator in global disputes.
“The lesson of the Saudi-Iran deal is that China is very good at seizing opportunities,” she said. “And it’s becoming increasingly clear that Saudi Arabia and Iran are looking for a way to start improving their relationship. And China seized the opportunity, helped achieve that goal.”
For the Russo-Ukraine war, that “time has not come,” she added.
Still, the conflict is likely to be high on Xi’s agenda.
On Monday, March 20, Xi called for a “rational approach” to the conflict in Ukraine, and said China’s position paper “is a constructive factor in eliminating the consequences of the crisis and promoting a political solution,” Russia’s government-run daily newspaper Roskaya Gazeta wrote.
While the West is deeply skeptical regarding China’s ability to act as an honest mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it appears better suited than most to act as a mediator.
After all, China is Russia’s most important ally.
And while China complies with Western sanctions and avoids providing military aid to Moscow, it has maintained normal trade relations and will overtake Germany as the top importer of Russian oil in 2022. Bilateral trade in non-sanctioned sectors also surges, reaching a record $190 billion in 2022.
The two neighbors with long borders followed suit, holding large-scale naval exercises in the East China Sea in late December. They also held joint exercises with South Africa in February and with Iran earlier this month.
Responsible and influential
Some analysts believe China’s influence over Russia, and its desire to be seen as a responsible third power in global politics, might push Xi to pressure Putin to move toward a truce and dialogue in Ukraine. Take a “small step”.
“China wants to be seen as a responsible great power,” said Moritz Rudolph, a fellow and legal studies scholar at the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. “It’s worth noting that at a time when this is really regarding a war in Europe , China fully demonstrated its position. This is a real new quality of Chinese participation at the international level, and I think it will always be there.”
Rudolph said that while China’s position paper lacked substance, Beijing had positioned itself as “one of the only countries that might, or at least need, to engage in a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine issue.” He believes this is in line with China’s ambitions to reshape the global order, which it sees as unfairly skewing the West while the rules set by the United States and its allies work in their favor.
Rudolph noted that it may become clearer following the trip to Moscow whether Xi Jinping is seeking to play an active role in the Ukraine crisis.
He added that if the Chinese leader visits other European capitals following his trip to Russia, and if he speaks to Zelensky shortly following his meeting with Putin, it would show Xi Do you really want to play an important role.
With low expectations for a breakthrough on Ukraine, substantive discussions between Xi and Putin are likely to focus on expanding and deepening their economic and military ties.
Anna Kireeva, an associate professor at the Department of Asian and African Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said, “All in all, this is an important visit that marks the importance of the Russia-China strategic partnership to each other.”
She pointed out that “new economic agreements can be expected, especially in the energy field. Because Russia urgently needs to find alternative destinations for its exports, and China is very willing to buy Russian energy resources and raw materials at discounted prices.”
She believes that might translate into a deal on a new pipeline, the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, to transport gas to China via Mongolia.
Kireyeva noted that despite world political turmoil, Xi and Putin will also use their summit to signal the stability of their relationship, thereby forming a united front once morest the United States and boosting Moscow’s global standing.
She added, “As long as Moscow and Beijing maintain a strategic partnership, that means they are not completely surrounded geopolitically.”
As Chinese President Xi Jinping embarks on his visit to Moscow, hopes are high for a breakthrough in resolving the ongoing war in Ukraine. While many are sceptical of China’s ability to act as an honest mediator in the conflict, its close relationship with Russia might provide a unique opportunity for peaceful negotiation. While Xi’s visit to Russia is expected to focus on expanding their economic and military ties, some analysts believe his desire to be seen as a responsible third power in global politics might push him to pressure Putin towards a truce and dialogue in Ukraine. Regardless of the outcome, Xi’s visit marks a significant moment in China’s emergence as a key player on the world stage.
