2024-04-23 17:53:59
Will the price of oil soon exceed $100 per barrel?
with escalation The fluctuations in the price of oil that the Middle East region has experienced in recent weeks have become more pronounced, raising questions in the markets regarding the possibility that it will soon exceed the level of 100 dollars per barrel. Brent crude futures have risen more than 13% this year, surpassing $87 a barrel, due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, OPEC supply cuts and attacks on energy infrastructure between Ukraine and Russia, in addition to… Increased demand for oil One of the main consuming countries.
In March, Brent crude futures rose more than 8%, recording the largest monthly increase since July 2023. This month, the price of Brent crude oil touched $92.10 per barrel, the highest level in six months, due to growing tensions between Iran and Israel. Previously, the price fell as the situation calmed somewhat in the region. In the final trading days of last week, Brent crude futures rose 4% following the Iranian attack with drones and missiles on Israel, which once more raised concerns regarding possible problems in… Oil supply Due to wider regional conflict.
According to U.S. officials, Israel carried out a raid once morest Iran, although Iranian state media reported that the attack failed. Iran is the world’s third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and was already the target of Western sanctions. However, when its oil supplies are disrupted due to war, a rise in crude prices will definitely occur.
According to Bloomberg Research, a direct war between Israel and Iran might push the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel if it seriously hurts production. Brent crude prices hit $100 a barrel in 2022, and climbed to around $139 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, marking their highest level since 2008. Buying raw materials often seems like a ” guaranteed profit” for investors, because high prices reflect strong economic growth. , according to veteran analyst Jeff Currie.
In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Tuesday, Currie, who is now director of energy strategy at the Carlyle Group, stressed that while high prices are pushing central banks to keep interest rates at their current levels, it is a positive thing for the sector. because it shows the strength of underlying demand. “We are talking regarding higher interest rates over a longer period because growth is very good,” he added. He stressed: “We are witnessing a further acceleration of growth in all areas.”
As a result, the chances of oil prices rising above $100 a barrel are “exceptionally high,” Currie added. Brent crude futures were trading near $88 a barrel on Tuesday, as traders weighed the impact of evolving conflict risks in the Middle East on supplies. He pointed out that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (OPEC members) now have more power than ever in the crude oil markets, as they have the latest production capacity available in the market.
The Strait of Hormuz is the main route through which Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Iran export their crude oil. It is a narrow sea passage measuring 40 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, with navigation channels two kilometers long. arriving and departing ships. Nearly a fifth of the world’s crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and it has never been completely closed, but tensions in the region escalated in 2017 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump accused Iran of attacking two oil tankers.
Local brokerage firm Motilal Oswal predicted in its latest report that if Iran succeeds in imposing a full or partial blockade of the strait, it might lead to a significant increase in crude oil prices and spot prices of liquefied natural gas . The company said that while there are alternative routes, they might accommodate only a small portion of the usual supplies, estimated at around 7 to 8 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products, relative to the volume currently transiting, which is estimated at approximately 21 million barrels per day, in addition to the expected increase in shipping and insurance costs.
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