2024-02-11 16:56:40
Recent demographic developments in France, marked in particular by a significant decrease in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2022, do they announce a drop in population? Calculating projections makes it possible to respond by describing the consequences of the current situation if it continues.
The number of births has been decreasing for several years in France, the latest demographic report published by INSEE indicating a further decline in 2023 compared to 2022, 678,000 compared to 726,000, or 52,000 fewer births (7%). The fertility indicator increases from 1.79 children per woman in 2022 to 1.68 in 2023.
The population has not decreased in 2023
This decline has not led to a decrease in the population, because deaths remain fewer than births, their number having also decreased between 2022 and 2023, by almost as much as births, going from 675,000 to 638,000.
The drop in the number of deaths reflects a sharp increase in life expectancy at birth, which makes a jump between 2022 and 2023 : it reaches 80.0 years for men and 85.7 years for women in 2023, compared to respectively 79.3 years and 85.1 years in 2022, i.e. a gain of 0.7 years for men and 0.6 year for women.
With this jump, life expectancy has more than caught up to its 2019 level and is in the upward trend observed before the Covid-19 epidemic, interrupted for three years. Life expectancy actually fell in 2020 due to the Covid-19 epidemic, then stagnated or increased only slightly in 2021 and 2022 due to the continuation of the epidemic combined with an epidemic of deadly seasonal flu and several heatwaves which also led to excess mortality.
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The natural balance, the difference between the numbers of births and deaths, is positive and is almost at the same level as the previous year: 47,000 in 2023 compared to 51,000 in 2022. It contributes to population growth, but in part only. Net migration, the difference between entries and exits from the territory, also positive, also contributes and more significantly. Estimated at 183,000 in 2023 by INSEEit represents four-fifths of the increase in population in 2023, the natural balance representing only a fifth.
But if the population has not decreased in 2023, do the changes observed that year, in particular the drop in fertility, not carry the seeds of an upcoming decrease in the population and increased demographic aging? Let’s examine possible futures using projections and see the differences with the projections published by INSEE in 2021.
The latest INSEE projections published in 2021
In November 2021, INSEE published population projections for France at l’horizon 2070. The central scenario, based on demographic trends from previous years, retains a fertility rate of 1.8 children on average per woman, i.e. a level close to that of 2020, kept constant throughout the projection; mortality continuing to decline at the same rate as during the 2010 decade, with life expectancy at birth reaching 87.5 years for men in 2070 compared to 79.7 years in 2019, before the Covid epidemic. 19, an increase of 7.8 years and, for women, 90.0 years compared to 85.6 years, an increase of 4.4 years; and a net migration of +70,000 people per year also kept constant.
In this central INSEE scenario, France would have 68.1 million inhabitants on 1is January 2070, compared to 67.4 million on January 1is January 2021, or 700,000 more. The population would continue to increase to a maximum of 69.3 million in 2044 and then decline up to 68.1 million in 2070 (figure 1).
A new “2023” scenario
The developments observed since the publication of INSEE projections do not correspond to the central scenario, which is not surprising in itself, any projection exercise being bound to be contradicted by reality – the objective is not to guess the future but to say what it would be under such and such conditions.
We have calculated new projections with a modified scenario compared to the central INSEE scenario of 2021 taking into account the developments observed since.
This new scenario, called here “2023”, assumes a constant fertility of 1.68 children per woman, the level observed in 2023, instead of 1.8 children, the level retained in the central scenario of the INSEE.
The sharp drop in fertility in 2023 might certainly be followed by further declines in future years. But it might also be interrupted and give way to an increase, as has been observed There is 30 ans.
Fertility had in fact fallen in the 1980s and early 1990s to a level of 1.68 children in 1993 and 1994, as in 2023. This decline was then explained by the crisis which followed the fall of the Soviet empire.
It then increased continuously throughout the second half of the 1990s and the 2000s to reach 2.03 children in 2010. The hypothesis of stable fertility at its current level of 1.68 children per woman therefore represents a compromise between two possible trends, downward or upward.
For the annual migration balance, we retain a stable level of 180,000 per year, the level of 2023, instead of 70,000 in the central INSEE scenario of 2021. Concerning mortality, we take the hypothesis of an increase in the life expectancy of the central scenario without changing it.
With the conditions of 2023, the natural balance becomes negative from 2030…
The 2023 scenario leads to a drop in the number of births and an increase in the number of deaths, the two curves crossing in 2030 and the natural balance becoming negative. The deficit then increases and the balance reaches -166,000 around 2060 (figure 2).
The increase in the number of deaths is not linked to an increase in mortality; on the contrary, it decreases at all ages in the scenario. It comes from the arrival at high ages of large baby boom generations which will fuel deaths as they extinction. Compared to the central scenario of 2021, the number of deaths is a little higher, there being more migrants (and therefore their deaths); the number of births is slightly lower, with additional migrant births partly compensating for lower fertility. The natural balance is relatively little changed overall.
…but the population is continuously increasing
The 2023 scenario leads to an uninterrupted increase in the population up to 72.1 million in 2070 (figure 1). In 2021, INSEE, in addition to its central scenario, proposed different alternative scenarios. Our 2023 scenario results in a total population whose progression is very close to those in two of these alternative scenarios, called “high fertility” (2.0 children per woman, net migration of 70,000) and “high migration” (1. 8 children per woman, net migration of 120,000), both leading to 72.2 million inhabitants in 2070, compared to 68.1 in the central scenario.
With the 2023 scenario, the number of births by 2070 is practically the same as in the central scenario (650,000 compared to 660,000), and the trend in deaths is very similar.
The total population is greater in 2070, with the surplus spreading between 15 and 85 years (figure 3). The population ages in both scenarios in a similar way.
The future is not written and developments deviating from the 2023 scenario presented here are obviously probable.
We can envisage a continued decline in fertility, an increase in net migration, and new mortality crises. This projection, however, has the advantage of showing that the current situation, if it continues without change in fertility or net migration, progress once morest death continuing, does not lead to a reduction in the population. The population in 2070 would be larger in this scenario than in INSEE’s central scenario of 2021: the higher net migration more than compensates for the lower fertility.
The authors received support from the National Research Agency (ANR), which funds project-based research in France. Its mission is to support and promote the development of fundamental and finalized research in all disciplines, and to strengthen the dialogue between science and society. To find out more, visit the websiteANR.
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