© Lionel Bonaventure, AFP
The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 was first identified in South Africa and neighboring Botswana in late November 2021.
The wave of infections and vaccination coverage reveal the light at the end of the tunnel, according to some scientists who foresee a herd immunity in the coming months. However, prudence is still necessary and other, much less encouraging scenarios might destroy the hope of exiting the crisis.
Will 2022 be the year of the return to “the old life”? Cautious optimism seems to have gripped health experts in recent days. “Perhaps it is the last variant, perhaps it is the last wave, perhaps this wave allows us to acquire a type of immunity,” French Health Minister Olivier Véran said on January 3.
Danish health authorities also share this view. “I think we have a couple of months left, and then I hope the infection starts to wane and we get back to normal life,” said Tyra Grove Krause, Denmark’s chief epidemiologist. The scientist presented the results of a study that confirms that the Omicron variant is not dangerous.
According to this study, the risk of hospitalization associated with the variant that emerged in November in South Africa is only half that of the Delta variant.
Less lethal but more contagious Ómicron, together with our vaccination coverage, might allow us to acquire a natural immunity to the virus. “In the long run, there is hope and Sars-CoV-2 will become part of the other seasonal human coronaviruses that give us colds and sore throats every winter,” epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet told the French newspaper ‘Journal du Dimanche’.
The vaccination inequality in question
Thus, herd immunity would not be very far … “But we still do not know anything regarding the duration of immunity to this variant”, clarifies Samuel Alizon, researcher at the CNRS and specialist in the modeling of infectious diseases, contacted by France 24.
At the moment, it is difficult to know when this immunity might materialize, or how long it might last. In addition, two years following the appearance of Covid-19 and its many variants, it is necessary to continue to exercise caution. “With five worrisome variants in 2021, it seems overly optimistic to think that there will be no new variant in 2022,” adds the researcher.
Interviewed by France 24, Yves Coppieters, professor of public health at the Free University of Belgium, also believes that it is premature to say that this fifth wave will be the last. “To say that is to forget that the pandemic is not being managed on a global scale,” he adds.
For the epidemiologist, the inequality in vaccination, especially on the African continent, will continue to allow the circulation of the virus and favor the appearance of new variants. “So we are not safe from a bad surprise, although we think that the next mutations will probably be more contagious and less virulent”, explains Yves Coppieters, for whom the appearance of a new variant in spring is a quite feasible scenario.
Complicated weeks expected in hospitals
Many health experts also warn of the price that must be paid to achieve the still uncertain herd immunity. Ómicron may be less dangerous, but the high number of infections can consistently lead to an increase in the number of hospitalized patients.
“According to our forecasts, although the epidemic decreases as of January 15, the virulence of omicron is a third of that of delta and all vaccinated people receive a booster, intensive care services will be under great pressure in February”, says Samuel Alizon.
“What is clear is that the month of January is going to be very complicated because there are still many unknowns regarding the effects of omicron both in the functioning of society and in hospital systems,” says Yves Coppieters.
The situation will be aggravated by the fact that hospitalizations for Covid-19 will be joined by other pathologies, including winter illnesses such as the flu.
On average, in the last seven days more than 160,000 people have been infected daily, with a peak on Tuesday of regarding 300,000, according to French health authorities.
Hospital pressure rose once more to reach a total of 19,000 patients admitted Sunday night, of which more than 3,500 are in intensive care, although the levels are lower than in previous peaks.
This article was adapted from his original in french
