Since that January 27, the blue sank $20.50 (-9.2%) to currently stand at $202. At the beginning of this week, the gap with the official touched 85% and scored its lowest level in almost six months.
John Paul Albornoz, an analyst at the consulting firm Ecolatina, clarified to Ámbito that “it is very difficult” to know if the blue has already hit a floor since “it is a financial asset of a very small market, which moves with little volume and not always in line with what one would expect under economic logic”. “It’s like a countercyclical asset; it acts like insurance,” she said.
Still, the economist estimated that the “exchange summer” that was observed at the beginning of last year (with the gap approaching 50%) can be repeated due to the impulse in the price of commodities and “pro-market” signals, such as the rise in rates or the commitment to reduce the fiscal deficit.
However, he warned that the market is more cautious than a year ago, waiting to see how the Government will meet the objectives set out in the agreement with the Fund, and that the change of course at the end of 2021 will not be repeated when the ruling party he chose to delay the exchange rate and accelerate the monetary issue, within the framework of an electoral logic.
The recent fall of the blue occurred on a par with the setbacks in the Dollars financial; the “contado con liqui” (CCL) collapsed $34 (-14.6%) in the last month and a half, and reached $200.
The director of Rafaela Capital, Fernando Camusso, He remarked to this medium that, according to his point of view, the performance of the blue dollar “is always a consequence of the movement of financiers.” In that sense, he currently sees that there are better economic fundamentals to explain the falls in the MEP and the CCL..
Specifically, the expert highlighted the acceleration in the devaluation rate (2.7% per month), the rise in rates (close to inflation in effective terms) and the BCRA’s purchases of foreign currency in the official foreign exchange market (on Monday recorded its best result since 2019).
“These are variables that should somehow impact the CCL and the MEP,” said Camusso, although he warned regarding some factors that might alter the behavior of the prices, among them the local inflation rate, which will determine if the rate of “crawling peg” and the rate increases are sufficient, and the net effect of the increase in the price of commodities on the reserves of the monetary authority.
Albornoz also paid attention to this last aspect. “The balance between agriculture and energy is crucial. At Ecolatina we estimate that the net income would be positive, but it is day by day. There are more downward risks from agriculture, and upward risk in terms of prices and energy consumption,” deepened.
In this context, the director of the LCG consultancy, Guido Lorenzo, predicted that the approval of the agreement with the IMF in Congress “should be a signal for the downward trend” of the blue to continue. However, he stressed that, beyond the negotiation with the multilateral credit organization, “the deterioration of the Central Bank’s balance sheet is important” and that is reflected in the still high levels of gaps.
