If Thursday decides to raise interest rates by half a yard, the mortgage interest rate will return to the 2% era, and the last time the interest rate was 2%, it last appeared in January 2009. (Photo source/Xin Media Editorial Department)
The meeting of the central bank’s board of directors and supervisors will be held on Thursday. The market expects that the interest rate may be raised by half a yard or not. If the interest rate is raised by half a yard, the mortgage interest rate will return to the 2% era. However, with the violent interest rate hike in the United States, the domestic rise The continuous pace is expected to be suspended, and the expected pressure on the housing market for continuous interest rate hikes is also expected to be relieved.
The “Global Central Bank Week” is approaching. Central banks such as Australia, the Philippines, Indonesia, India, and Taiwan will follow the interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve and hold meetings to discuss the latest monetary policy. The economic research teams of major foreign banks have already “knowledge” regarding Taiwan’s central bank, and it is most likely that the rate hike will be half a yard.
Foreign banks assess the probability of the central bank raising interest rates is not high
DBS Bank stated that there are three reasons why it is difficult for the central bank to suspend interest rate hikes before the end of the year: 1. Inflation is still higher than the long-term average level; 2. Central banks in other major countries are still in a cycle of raising interest rates; 3. The overall economy is still not in recession.
ING Dutch Bank stated that the purpose of Taiwan’s central bank to raise interest rates is to “partially keep up” with the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. The approach is different from that of the Philippine central bank, which will fully follow the Fed’s forecast to raise interest rates by 2 yards. It is clear that the Philippine central bank will The hawkish stance will continue until 2023. But for Taiwan’s central bank, the team said that it depends on the economic data and statements put forward by the central bank following the meeting to assess whether Taiwan will raise interest rates further in the first quarter of next year.
According to statistics from the Joint Levy Center, the average mortgage interest rate was 1.46% before the rate hike in the first quarter of this year. If the interest rate is raised by half a yard on Thursday, and the accumulated interest rate has been raised by 0.5% this year, the interest rate will increase following the rate hike on Thursday. More than 2%. As for the central bank’s five major banks’ new mortgage interest rates, it was 1.367% before the rate hike in February this year. If the interest rate is raised by half a yard on Thursday, the future interest rate will also be close to 2%. Therefore, if it is decided to raise interest rates by half a yard on Thursday, the mortgage interest rate will return to the 2% era, and the last time the interest rate was 2% was last seen in January 2009.
If the interest rate is raised by half a yard, the ten million loan will pay an extra month of housing loan a year
Zeng Jingde, project manager of Xinyi Housing Real Estate Enterprise Research Office, said that this wave of interest rate hikes can be divided into real and confidence. Confidence, fortunately, the violent interest rate hikes in the United States have come to an end for the time being, and the pressure of domestic interest rate rises has eased. The continuous interest rate hikes since this year should have breathing room next year, which will help the confidence of home buyers to stabilize. Hope to lift.
Calculate the average amortization of the principal and interest of 10 million yuan in 30 years. The trial calculation is 1.375% before the interest rate hike this year, and the monthly repayment amount is 33,915 yuan. If the interest rate is raised by half a yard on Thursday, plus the previous increase of 0.5% , the mortgage interest rate will reach 2%, and the monthly repayment amount will increase to 36,962 yuan, which is 3,047 yuan more than before the interest rate hike this year, and 36,564 yuan more a year, which is equivalent to paying one month more mortgage.
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