We come to wonder what could prevent it. Asked about the quest for this royal quintet – which only Eddy Merckx, Roger de Vlaeminck and Rik van Looy have completed – Pogacar did not kick in touch, Sunday, after his victorious Round. “Sanremo is the most difficult (monuments) to win”, estimated the leader of UAE Emirates, 4th in the Primavera this year. In the Poggio, he shattered the peloton, but Mathieu van der Poel countered him on the summit: “I was still in one of the best shape of my life.”
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His answer may surprise. The Hell of the North seems reserved for specialists, while Milan-Sanremo is very open. But the problem lies in this wide range of potential winners. “There is a tactical dimension to Sanremo, underlines Nicolas Fritsch. Paris-Roubaix, apart from bad luck (high risk of mechanical incidents, editor’s note), it’s the strongest who wins… and the strongest is often Pogacar.” His Flandrian demonstration showed that the “last man standing” side suited him better than an intense finale after a waiting race.
A rider cataloged as a climber or puncher who ventures onto the Ronde and can shine there, on class and explosiveness, that’s one thing. In 2020, Julian Alaphilippe had thus invited himself into the big leagues, before stumbling on a motorcycle. But what Tadej Pogacar has achieved is another. “It’s not Alejandro Valverde, a little hard at times, but who knows how to position himself, is talented, and manages to make room (8th in 2019, editor’s note), abounds our consultant. There he scattered them on a type of effort that resembles those that must be carried out in Roubaix.”
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Not a climber in the land of flahutes
“Le Vieux Quaremont, there is a difficult, steep part, but otherwise it’s almost Roubaix pavement“, insists Fritsch, concerning the decisive attack of Pogacar. The Slovenian star beat Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert on their ground… and in their register. The contrast exists, in terms of size, but it is almost non-existent in terms of pedal stroke. What marks is “its ability to develop watts without becoming a dancer. It can also be seen on the dirt roads of the Strade Bianche. It has a style suitable for seated efforts, on floors with little grip.”
“Pogacar ticks the boxes from a physiological point of view, position, technique, lists the former runner of the Française des Jeux. It has a kind of low mass distribution, it is picked up, compact“The pavement is different, however, from one Monument to another. But last summer during the Tour de France, “Pogi” had impressed on the sectors of northern France, escaping with Jasper Stuyven. “Scrub, go the distance, do it in April (on this Round, editor’s note) and what he showed during the 2022 Tour: with this combination, I don’t see why he couldn’t do it“, considers Fritsch.
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He has what it takes to win Paris-Roubaix… practically now
However, the objective seems more reasonable in the medium than in the short term, for Pogacar. He should not be at the start this Sunday, even if his social networks will undoubtedly be scrutinized during the week – he had more or less bluffed about this last year. “He has what it takes to win Paris-Roubaix… practically now“, summarizes our expert. A “practically”… which weighs heavily. “I think I need to put on a few pounds for Roubaix and toughen up my hands for the cobbles“, advances the double winner of the Tour de France (2020, 2021).
To find traces of a runner weighing less than 70 kilos who triumphed in Roubaix, you have to go back to 2001, and the coronation of Servais Knaven (68kg). Since then, a behemoth like Magnus Bäckstedt (94kg) has had its heyday (2004), while the average weight of the winners of the event over the last twenty editions is 78.45kg (estimate via ProCyclingStats, editor’s note) . With 66 kilos on the scale, “Pogi” could need to strengthen, without metamorphosing. It would still be risky, in view of the three-week races.
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Priority and dangerousness
“I think he especially wants to win back the Tour de Francepoints out Nicolas Fritsch, in reference to the duel lost by Tadej Pogacar against Jonas Vingegaard. Winning the three Grand Tours and the five Monuments, this can be his roadmap. Logically, it’s easier to try to grab a third Tour this year, then to sign the Giro-Vuelta double next year, before thinking about Roubaix.” Knowing that Milan-Sanremo looks like an “obligatory” passage at the start of the season: “This one he’ll try to win every year, he’ll be there naturally.”
Presence is not everything. There’s emotional engagement, too. In 2022, we saw Pogacar take fewer risks than his compatriot, the tightrope walker Matej Mohoric, in the descent of Poggio. As if he didn’t want to mortgage even bigger goals. Hence the reinforced prospect of seeing him wait a few more years, before challenging the cobblestones of Roubaix, above which hangs the specter of a serious fall. But “if he arrives by surprise on Sunday, many will think seriously“, concludes our consultant, hilarious.
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