India’s allies Russia On behalf of Ukraine Since the uprising, it has decided to remain neutral and has refrained from condemning Russia’s war, ignoring pressure from Western countries, while at the same time trying to strengthen trade relations with countries such as the United States and Britain. Continued.
It is expected that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi They will try to maintain this delicate balance during their visit to Kiev. This is the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries 30 years ago.
In the first leg of his European tour, Modi was in Poland on Thursday and reached Kiev on Friday.
The timing of the visit, in which Modi will meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, cannot be overlooked, as the visit coincides with Ukraine’s National Flag Day, which commemorates its independence from the Soviet Union. gives
The visit comes after the Indian Prime Minister met Vladimir Putin in Moscow a month ago, which has been criticized by Zelenskiy, along with the West.
He described it as ‘a huge disappointment and a big blow to peace efforts for the leader of the world’s largest democracy to embrace the world’s bloodiest criminal on such a day’.
On the same day that Modi and Putin were meeting, Russian forces launched missile strikes in Ukraine that reportedly killed at least 42 people.
Strategic observers say Modi’s visit to Kiev is aimed at appeasing Western partners who are upset by his visit to Moscow.
And while the visit is mainly for show, the visit could give New Delhi an opportunity to strengthen defense cooperation with Ukraine, which is supplying it with spare parts for warships.
Chetgaj Bajpai, senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House, told The Independent: “Modi’s visit is mainly to reassure the West after the outcome of the Moscow visit, which comes as Ukraine is ahead of the NATO summit. Air strikes were carried out.
“This is a way of strategic signaling by India to the West and especially to Europe, which has been increasingly critical of India.”
Soran Singh, a professor of diplomacy and disarmament at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, says Mr Modi’s visit is not an unexpected move after the Kiev-Moscow summit – but a way for India to show its strategic sovereignty.
He told The Independent that ‘Western pressure is important, but this decision has been taken primarily because of India’s foreign policy on the axis of strategic sovereignty. And it’s also to show Moscow that New Delhi will get along with Putin and we’ll keep in touch with Ukraine.
He also claimed that Modi’s visit to Ukraine on the occasion of National Day was meant to send a message that ‘India supports Ukraine’s independence.’
In any case, it won’t be easy for Zelensky to rally India against Russia. The Ukrainian leadership’s position has not changed significantly from the limited ties it has had with New Delhi in the past, largely due to vested interests.
India is heavily dependent on Russia for arms and energy supplies, even as New Delhi is accused by the West of indirectly financing Moscow’s war by buying large quantities of Russian crude oil. is Since 2021, these purchases have increased almost 20 times.
Before leaving for his visit, Modi had said he would ‘exchange views’ on a peaceful resolution to the war.
“As a friend and partner, we hope for the early return of peace and stability in the region,” he said.
Delhi has previously expressed its willingness to help resolve the conflict peacefully, but has not drawn up a plan, unlike rival China, which has put forward a 12-point peace plan.
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Chittagong Bajpayee said, “I doubt India’s ability to play the role of a mediator because its vested interests in Russia call into question whether it has the resources and resources to play the role of a mediator or peacemaker.” motivation, especially given its longstanding and close relationship with Russia.’
Increasingly, India could serve as a conduit for messages between Moscow and Kiev and potentially provide a back channel for the West to engage with Russia, he added.
Rahul Roy Chaudhary, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the UK, seems to agree.
He said that the expectation of India to play a role in mediation is very exaggerated. I think India has been able to strike a balance between all these different parties. It has been able to do this with relative success. But this is the limit. Mediation means going further than that.’
Professor Singh said this could be because India is wary of making a big proposal like China’s peace plan, which could have failed.
He said that India is taking a very cautious, very simple, very good attitude. It doesn’t make any big proposition or claim to work yet. I also hope that when Modi speaks in Kiev, the words will be clearer.’
Chaudhry said the West could try to portray Modi’s visit to Zelensky as a victory due to his pressure and criticism of his visit to Russia.
“Russia will think it’s just for show and has no weight,” he said. And in India’s policy, despite this visit to Ukraine, there will be no significant change in its relations with Moscow.’
At the same time, he pointed out that strengthening defense trade with Kiev could benefit India. He explained that several ships of the Indian Navy depend on Ukrainian engines and spare parts.
Bajpai said that if Moscow objects to Modi’s visit, it will express itself in other ways.
He said, ‘For example, Putin can deepen or expand the communication between Moscow and Pakistan. In the worst case scenario, Russia may lean more towards China in the border dispute with India.’
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2024-08-23 16:57:17