Citizens are selecting cabbage at the Lotte Mart Seoul Station branch on the 4th. Yonhap News
Due to the ongoing rainy season and heat wave last month, cabbage prices have increased by approximately 20% compared to a year ago. Vegetable prices have already surged significantly because of the heavy rains during the rainy season last month, leading to concerns about potential disruptions in the supply and demand of agricultural products and forecasts indicating that food price instability may escalate further.
According to the ‘Agricultural Observation August’ report by the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KRI) released on the 4th, the wholesale price of cabbage this month is expected to reach 16,000 won per 10 kg. This represents a 19.3% increase from a year ago and a 29.5% rise compared to the average from 2019 to 2023.
The expected surge in cabbage prices is attributed to reduced cultivation area and lower shipments resulting from poor harvests. This summer, the area devoted to cabbage cultivation was 4,914 hectares (1 hectare = 10,000 m²), a decrease of 6.2% from the previous year. Additionally, the frequent rain and high temperatures last month contributed to the spread of pests and diseases, leading to poor growth; consequently, the production per 10a (are, 100 m²) is anticipated to drop by 1.0% compared to last year.
As a result, summer cabbage production is forecasted to be 340,000 tons, reflecting a 7.2% decrease from the prior year and a 9.1% decline from the average production in previous years. The Rural Development Administration stated, “The combination of heavy rains and heat will cause lime deficiency and soft rot in summer highland cabbage, which will result in lower crop yields and reduced shipments, leading to elevated prices.”
The Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC) also predicted that this month’s wholesale price for carrots would be 75,000 won per 20 kg, which is 8.7% higher than a year ago and 105.1% above the average price.
Vegetable prices have already seen significant increases due to the heavy rainfall last month. According to the July consumer price index from Statistics Korea, overall consumer prices have been rising steadily by 2% for four consecutive months, but the prices of agricultural products have surged by 9.0% compared to last year. In particular, vegetable prices have notably risen compared to the previous month, including increases of 57.2% for lettuce, 62.1% for spinach, and 27.3% for cabbage.
To stabilize the supply and demand for vegetables, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs has decided to release 28,000 tons of radish and cabbage (5,000 tons of radish and 23,000 tons of cabbage). They plan to boost this amount to as much as 300 tons per day if the situation remains insufficient. Additionally, to stabilize cabbage consumer prices, the ministry has been directly supplying it to major supermarkets since the end of July and will implement further measures if needed.
As the heat wave continues to intensify, not only are vegetable prices rising, but also livestock losses and damages to fish farms are occurring, contributing to overall food price instability.
As reported by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, by the end of last month, 216,000 livestock, including 199,000 chickens and 15,000 pigs, had died due to the extreme heat. On the 1st of this month, 3,600 flounders died at five land-based aquaculture farms in Hangyeong-myeon, Jeju, marking the first report of fish deaths in aquaculture farms this year due to high water temperatures. As inland bay water temperatures surged rapidly in both the West Sea and South Sea regions, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries issued a high water temperature crisis alert classified as “Serious Level 1” on the 31st of last month.
An official from the Korea Rural Community Corporation remarked, “Last year, the supply and demand of agricultural products were disrupted by heavy rains and heat waves, which led to substantial price increases. However, this year, the weather conditions are even more concerning than last year.” He added, “In particular, regarding cabbage, where even the cultivated area has diminished, we can expect prices in August and September to rise more than last year due to poor harvests.”
Cabbage Prices Surge: A Deep Dive into Recent Trends and Future Projections
Recent climatic events have dramatically impacted the agricultural landscape, particularly affecting the price and supply of cabbage. As of August 2024, cabbage prices have soared approximately 20% compared to the previous year, sparking concerns about food price instability in the region. A report from the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KRI) projects that the wholesale price of cabbage this month will reach 16,000 won per 10 kg, marking a 19.3% increase from last year and 29.5% above the average prices recorded from 2019 to 2023.
Causes for the Price Surge
Several factors contribute to the rising prices of cabbage:
- Decreased Cultivation Area: The area dedicated to cabbage cultivation has shrunk by 6.2% this year, dropping to 4,914 hectares. This reduction is largely due to changing weather patterns that have made cultivation increasingly challenging.
- Pest and Disease Outbreaks: The combination of heavy rains and heat has led to an increase in pests and diseases, negatively affecting crop yields. Current estimates indicate a 1.0% drop in production per 10 ares compared to last year.
- Overall Harvest Decline: With expected summer cabbage production at 340,000 tons, there is a significant drop of 7.2% from the previous year and a 9.1% decrease compared to the average of the last five years.
Impact on Other Agricultural Products
The fluctuations in cabbage prices are part of a larger trend affecting various vegetables. For example, the Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC) anticipates that the wholesale price of carrots will also surge to 75,000 won per 20 kg this month, which is 8.7% higher than last year and over 105% above the average prices of the last five years.
The overall increase in vegetable prices can be seen across a range of products. For instance, lettuce prices have skyrocketed by 57.2% while spinach has increased by 62.1%. These shifts are alarming consumers and prompting agricultural authorities to take action.
Consumer Price Trends and Government Response
According to the July Consumer Price Index released by Statistics Korea, consumer prices have risen consistently for four months, maintaining a 2% growth trend. However, agricultural products, especially vegetables, have witnessed a more alarming 9.0% increase year-on-year.
In response to these challenges, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs is stepping in to stabilize the market by releasing 28,000 tons of radish and cabbage from reserves. This includes 5,000 tons of radish and 23,000 tons of cabbage with plans to ramp up distribution to 300 tons daily if necessary. Their aim is to ensure that consumer prices are moderated amid this crisis.
Consequences of Climate Conditions
The impact of climatic extremes is not limited to cabbage. Livestock deaths have surged, with 216,000 animals, including 199,000 chickens and 15,000 pigs, reported dead due to extreme heat. Fish farms are also affected; for instance, 3,600 flounders died in aquaculture facilities due to high water temperatures at the onset of August.
The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries has issued a “Serious Level 1” high water temperature crisis alert, signifying the urgency of the situation. These disturbances raise concerns about food price instability across the agricultural spectrum, indicating a potential for further inflation in already rising commodity prices.
Price Predictions and Consumer Awareness
Looking forward, conditions appear grim for consumers hoping for relief from rising cabbage prices. The KRI suggests that prices might rise even more in August and September, particularly if the harvest proves inadequate. Consumers should brace themselves for higher costs and consider alternative vegetables or crop substitutes to mitigate the financial impact.
Practical Tips for Consumers
In light of rising food prices, here are some practical tips for consumers:
- Plan Meals Wisely: Incorporate a variety of vegetables into your meals to avoid reliance on high-priced items like cabbage.
- Buy in Bulk: Purchasing commonly used vegetables in bulk may provide cost savings over time, especially when prices rise.
- Stay Informed: Monitor local market prices and trends to make educated decisions about when and where to buy your groceries.
- Support Local Farmers: Explore local farmer’s markets for potentially better prices and fresher produce.
Conclusion
In summary, the increase in cabbage prices reflects broader challenges within the agricultural sector, driven by weather extremes and declining production. As consumers absorb these repercussions, understanding the causative factors and engaging in strategic purchasing can mitigate financial strain in this unpredictable climate.