On February 25, Nigerian voters are called to go to the polls to elect their new president and their parliamentary representatives. The stakes of these elections go beyond the country’s borders, explains Gilles Yabi, director and founder of the West African think tank Wathi.
There must not be many Africans who have not once watched a Nollywood film, listened to music by Fela, Wizkid or Burna Boy or read Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie or Wole Soyinka.
The cultural influence of Nigeria on the continent is an inescapable reality.
It goes hand in hand with the country’s position as the continent’s leading economy, with a GDP of more than 400 billion dollars.
Nigeria is also the most populous country in Africa with over 200 million people.
However, it faces many internal and external challenges which make the general election on February 25 an important event, especially for the West African sub-region.
BBC Afrique spoke with Gilles Yabi, director and founder of the West African think tank Wathi, on the challenges of these elections for the sub-region.
Mr. Yabi, why should we be interested in the general elections on February 25 in Nigeria?
These elections are important for all of West Africa for different reasons.
The first, in my opinion, is that it is the leading demographic and economic power in West Africa, and even on the continent. And so what happens in Nigeria politically is important for the entire neighborhood of that country and therefore for the entire West African region. Nigerian political leadership is important in particular to be able to respond today to the multiple crises that cross the entire West African region, including the countries of the Sahel.
Could the election of a new president be a game-changer in terms of security in West Africa?
Nigeria can play an important role, should play a much more important role than it has played so far regionally. And I believe that Nigeria’s very significant security problems have led the country to play a less and less important role on the regional scene and this has contributed, in my opinion, to the weakening of ECOWAS. For me, the first element of the weakening of ECOWAS is the weakening of the country which can be its driving force.
And so today, it’s hard to imagine Nigeria being very active in addressing security issues in the region because it faces huge problems internally.
But I think we have to hope that the change in political leadership translates into an awareness perhaps of this regional responsibility and that this makes it possible to better tackle the problem, first of all of internal security and then also to be able to play a greater role at the regional level.
Could the election of the new president change anything economically, especially on the issue of the CFA franc?
I believe that we should not focus only on the question of the CFA franc. I think this issue has slipped a bit off the list of economic priorities in the region today, because there are more immediate problems of inflation, macroeconomic risks, and very strong social tensions precisely in Nigeria, because of the decisions of the country’s central bank.
So I think there are a lot of priorities at the economic level for Nigeria which are much more important than the question of the CFA franc and the question of the implementation of this new West African currency, the Eco.
I believe that we are unfortunately quite far from the implementation of this monetary union project. On the other hand, I believe that the election in Nigeria is also very important for the entire West African region, because it is indeed the most important country economically.
It is to be hoped that the next change of leadership will result in better economic governance in Nigeria, which might have a positive impact on other countries in the region, particularly neighboring countries.
Is the security situation a central issue in the electoral campaign today in the country?
Yes, it represents a priority very clearly. In fact, it was already there during the first election of President Muhammed Buhari, since what he put forward was precisely his ability to restore some order and improve the security situation in the country. With, let’s say, the cap he had on as a former soldier who had already led the country under a military regime a few decades earlier.
Unfortunately, President Buhari’s security record is clearly not good since today we not only have the security problems that we already had eight years ago, but we also have an extension finally insecurity, violence, even forms of violence in several states of Nigeria.
So it remains a priority for the populations. And I think what people hope is that the security issue will always be, let’s say very, very high in the priorities of the next administration in Nigeria.
But here once more, I think it’s important to remember, Nigeria is of course the president, the vice-president, but it’s also the governors of the various states who have resources, who have power very important in their different states.
And the stakes of the elections in Nigeria are not just at the federal level, they are also the stakes in the various states of the federation.
Some key facts regarding the elections in Nigeria
This is the seventh general election held in Nigeria since the country abandoned military rule in 1999. Many believe the general election on February 25 will be close, amid growing insecurity and economic hardship. .
The country is experiencing a kidnap-for-ransom crisis and is battling a militant Islamist insurgency in parts of the north, which threatens elections. Nigeria is no stranger to election violence, and there are fears that this poll will be more turbulent than usual.
Taraba state (northeast), where Islamist insurgents have carried out attacks, and Imo state (southeast), hotbed of separatist and gang violence, have the highest number of military units. vote where voting will not take place.
This election will therefore be a crucial test for the strength of democracy in Nigeria and West Africa as a whole, a region that has seen military coups on the rise in Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea.
There are 18 presidential candidates, but only three of them have a realistic chance of winning. They are Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labor Party ( LP).
Various opinion polls gave the victory to one of the three leaders.
The President of Nigeria is elected under a two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must obtain a majority of the votes and more than 25% of the votes in at least 24 of the 36 states.
The race is tight and it is possible that none of the candidates obtains the majority required to be declared the winner. If this happens, a second ballot will be held within seven days.
The 109 members of the Senate (upper house) are elected from 109 single-seat constituencies (three in each state and one for the Federal Capital Territory) by first past the post. The 360 members of the House of Representatives (Lower House) are also elected by first past the post in single-member constituencies.
According to the Electoral Commission, 93,469,008 million voters registered for the election. Eighteen political parties are in the running for the ballot which should take place in 176,846 polling stations spread over the 36 states and the federal capital.
This will be the first time that Nigeria has rolled out the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) for a general election. The machine will be used for voter verification and authentication to confirm a voter’s identity using their fingerprints or face. The Commission said the machine automatically updates as accreditation takes place, so the numbers cannot be manipulated.
Nigeria’s worst post-election violence was on record in 2011 and resulted in the deaths of at least 800 people in three days of riots in 12 northern states. There are fears of violence in this year’s election, with pre-election violence already recorded in several states and during campaigns, but the government provided adequate security during polls.