A crater left by a Russian missile strike in a Kiev park on October 11, 2022 (Getty)
resulted in the fiercest Airstrikes Russia has launched a campaign once morest Ukraine since its inception the war At least 19 people were killed, thousands of Ukrainians returned to seek protection in shelters and power was cut off to hundreds of towns and villages.
The West condemned the strikes, as they deliberately hit civilian targets, but the “hawks” in Moscow praised them and considered them a turning point that shows Russia’s determination to proceed with what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
However, Western military analysts believe that the cost of the strikes has been prohibitive, as Russia’s already dwindling stocks of long-range missiles have been depleted without hitting any major military targets, and it is unlikely to change the course of the war, which is going badly for Moscow.
“Russia lacks the missiles needed to launch such attacks frequently, its stockpile is declining, while the Ukrainians have reported a high success rate in intercepting many of those already launched,” wrote Lawrence Friedman, professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London.
“So this is not part of a new strategy to win the war, but rather a tantrum from someone who suffers from mental disorders,” he added.
How are the attacks portrayed in Russia?
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the strikes were a response to what he called terrorist attacks by Ukraine, including a bombing that destroyed a bridge linking Russia and Crimea on Sunday. Russia built the bridge following annexing the peninsula in 2014.
Russia hawks have been calling for Putin for weeks to escalate the conflict, with many praising Russia’s attacks on Monday.
Having recently called for the dismissal of military leaders, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Putin, said he supports the new strategy 100 percent.
Expert: Russia lacks the missiles needed to launch frequent attacks, its stockpile is declining
The head of the Russian state channel RT, Margarita Simonyan, said that Moscow was waiting for the right time to show its strength.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Security Council, which advises Putin, said Russia is now able to expand its goals. “Our next moves should be aimed, in my view, at the complete dismantling of the political system in Ukraine,” he said.
Is Russia able to continue at the same pace?
Ukraine says Russia fired 83 cruise missiles on Monday and 28 on Tuesday, and that it shot down at least 43 of them on Monday and 20 the following day. On Monday, Moscow said it had fired more than 70 missiles, hitting all of its targets.
Both sides acknowledged that the attack was large-scale, unprecedented since the wave of Russian air strikes on the first night of the war, in February.
The cost of a single Kalibr cruise missile is estimated at more than $6.5 million, which means that Moscow launched missiles worth half a billion dollars on Monday alone.
Western military analysts have no firm data on the number of missiles still in Russia’s possession, but they have been talking for months regarding indications that stockpiles are limited.
In July, Joseph Dempsey and Douglas Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted that Russia is increasingly using anti-ship missiles to strike targets on the ground. This, they wrote, “indicates that Moscow is compelled to use its ground attack cruise missiles more deliberately.”
Is Ukraine able to protect itself?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says strengthening his country’s air defenses is his top priority. Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden, have pledged to supply Kyiv with more air defense systems, but sending them will take time.
Ukraine currently relies on Soviet-era air defense systems such as the S-300. Several months ago, Washington promised to supply it with the advanced Nasams system. And it announced, on Tuesday, that it would speed up the delivery process, following it said at the end of September that the delivery would not take place before regarding two months.
Russia’s frustrated, ill-equipped forces are scattered along 1,000-kilometre front lines, and sprawling supply lines are in the crosshairs of Ukrainian forces.
A source at the German Defense Ministry said that Ukraine also received, on Tuesday, the first four air defense systems of the Iris T model that had previously been pledged by Berlin, confirming what was stated in a report by the magazine “Der Spiegel”.
In practice, military experts say that Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe by area following Russia itself, may not be able to defend its entire territory from attacks on isolated low-priority targets.
Air defense systems, such as the US Patriot missile system, are primarily designed to protect specific high-priority targets. They can provide wider protection but for relatively small spaces.
Mark Hertling, a former commander of US Ground Forces in Europe, wrote on Twitter: “Bottom line, just as it was difficult to prevent (the late Iraqi President) Saddam (Hussein) from firing Scuds, and despite our sincere desire to help Ukraine, it is difficult to counteract For all of Putin’s war crimes, which unfortunately include launching missile strikes on civilian targets.”
Bottom line:
Just like it was difficult to stop Saddam from launching SCUDs, and as much as we want to help Ukraine, it’s challenging to completely counter all Putin’s war crimes that unfortunately include launching missile strikes once morest civilian targets. 15/15— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) October 10, 2022
Meanwhile, Monday’s attacks showed that Ukraine is not entirely helpless. Although it is impossible to verify Kyiv’s claim that more than half of the missiles have been shot down, Russia has not bombed any targets of high strategic value such as the capital’s command buildings, which are likely subject to the highest levels of protection.
and what?
Russia still faces the same strategic problems it did before Monday’s attacks, with its demoralized and ill-equipped forces scattered along 1,000 km of frontlines and sprawling supply lines in the crosshairs of Ukrainian forces.
Initially, Russia’s capabilities, chiefly its formidable artillery, allowed for the destruction and control of cities from May to July. However, since September it has become clear that its forces are ill-equipped to defend the territories they have occupied once morest mobile and well-equipped Ukrainian units.
Nor did Moscow control Ukrainian airspace, which would have allowed it to launch massive strikes with fighter jets and helicopters, and then help it defeat Ukrainian forces as it did in Syria and Chechnya.
Ben Hodges, another former commander of US ground forces in Europe, said that despite Monday’s attacks, Ukraine still appeared to have “irreversible momentum” on the battlefield.
“The Russian logistical system is exhausted, and no Russian wants to fight in Putin’s war in Ukraine,” he wrote on Twitter.
Russia’s logistics system is exhausted and no Russian wants to fight in Putin’s war in Ukraine. Ukraine has irreversible momentum and will liberate Crimea by next Summer. Western Will to support Ukraine is unbroken. It’s the last Winter where Russia will disrupt Europe’s economy. https://t.co/7WfCmFxhCt
— Ben Hodges (@general_ben) October 11, 2022
(Archyde.com, The New Arab)
