2023-05-20 18:29:00
Ukraine’s counteroffensive depends on arms supplies, but Western partners are unlikely to keep up with the production of ammunition and weapons.
Kiev – Ukraine is still delaying the start of its planned major offensive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that they would wait until all the promised military vehicles had arrived. “We need a little more time,” said the President. In addition to weapons, Ukraine is probably waiting for more ammunition, say military experts. This might fail because of the western allies, according to a report in the US newspaper Washington Post according to not be able to keep up with the production.
Ukraine was waiting for weapons and ammunition from the West – but production may be faltering
It is possible that ammunition is the bottleneck at the moment “that Zelenskyy wants to fix before risking the lives of his soldiers,” Simon Schlegel, the International Crisis Group’s senior Ukraine analyst, told the International Crisis Group Euronews. “And that’s not just a military supply problem, it’s also an industrial problem, a production problem,” the analyst continued.
It might become tight with supplies because the West did not adjust its industrial production to the war situation in time. As early as April last year, it was obvious that the Ukraine war would last longer and that investments in industry would have to be made. But they remained inactive, says Jack Watling, from the Royal United Services Institute, according to a report by the Washington Post from Thursday.
Will the offensive fail due to the lack of preparation for the delivery of weapons?
Richard Barrons, a former British military man, was also critical of the fact that 13 months of war were allowed to elapse before industry began to be stimulated. “We haven’t seen the kind of industrial activity that would give Ukraine the tools it needs to fight on a large scale,” Barrons said.
“You don’t have to be a great military analyst to see that European countries making large investments in artillery production 13 months into the war are a little late,” confirmed Michael Kofman, director of the Russia studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses the US newspaper.
Europe is not acting fast enough: “One to two years” for investments to arrive
So far, ammunition and weapons have usually been taken from the stocks of the countries. “We are now talking regarding a situation where we have to put money on the table because we have to invest in industrial capacity,” Watling continued. In addition to the NATO members USA, the United Kingdom and Norway, the EU and NATO country France has also signed “major new contracts with the defense industry that will enable them to invest in increased production capacities,” the NATO officials said. Narrator Oana Lungescu.
Meanwhile, critics say many European governments have failed to act quickly enough to meet the growing need for weapons. The European Commission also had a Program worth 500 million euros announced to boost artillery shell production in Europe. This is an important step, but it is coming far too slowly, according to military experts. In addition, no new contracts have been concluded in most cases. There is talk of one to two years until the investments can actually arrive in European arms and ammunition production.
Russia has already been able to boost military production – “Ukraine’s crucial weakness”
Before the start of the Ukraine war, the US was producing 14,500 artillery shells per month, and EU production was roughly at a comparable level. US production had already increased to 20,000 rounds per month since the beginning of the war, and investments had also been made in expanding capacities to reach 90,000 rounds per month, the report said. For comparison: Last year, the Ukrainian army fired 180,000 artillery shells per month and, according to the expert Watling, currently uses around 90,000 to 140,000 rounds per month.
Russia itself says it increased its defense spending by 282 percent in January and February this year compared to the same period in 2021. Moscow now produces 2.5 million artillery shells a year, up from 1.7 million before the war. “Russia has the ability to mobilize its own economy in support of the armed forces and to control its own destiny in a way that Ukraine cannot,” said former General Barrons. “The key weakness” of Ukraine “is its dependence on Western goods and industry.”
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