Located at one of the extremes of Europe and thousands of kilometers from the United States, the relevance of Ukraine extends far beyond its borders.
First and foremost, a Russian invasion would disrupt the lives of 44 million Ukrainians. Yet his fate has big implications for the rest of Europe, the health of the global economy and America’s place in the world.
An invasion would raise fears about the safety of other countries in Eastern Europe that were once part of the Soviet Union. It would raise concerns about the strength of the post-1989 international order and the ability of the United States to influence it. In addition, it would put at risk the rise in fuel prices throughout the world.
Then, this is how Ukraine ended up at the center of a global crisis.
Why do Russia, the United States and Europe care so much about Ukraine?
Both Russia and the West see Ukraine as a possible buffer against the other.
Russia considers Ukraine within its natural sphere of influence. Most of the country was part of the Russian Empire for centuries, many Ukrainians speak Russian as their native language, and the country was part of the Soviet Union until gaining independence in 1991.
Russia was taken aback when an uprising in 2014 replaced Ukraine’s president, who was on good terms with Russia, with a government with clear Western leanings.
Most of the former Soviet republics and allies in Europe have already joined the European Union or NATO. Ukraine’s removal of Russian influence felt like the final nail in the coffin of Russian power in Eastern Europe.
For Europe and the United States, Ukraine is important in part because they see it as an indicator of their own influence and of Russian intentions in the rest of Europe. Ukraine is not part of the European Union or NATO. However, it receives considerable military and financial support from Europe and the United States. If Russia invades, it would indicate that Moscow might feel empowered to raise tensions with other former Soviet republics that are now members of the Western alliance, such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Any Russian incursion would also pose a greater threat to US dominance in world affairs. By winning the Cold War, the United States established great influence over the international order, but that influence has waned over the past decade, and a Russian invasion could hasten that process. If it manages to reinvigorate NATO, the United States could hope to stop that process or even reverse it.
Ukraine was often in the news during the Trump administration. Why?
Ukraine was essential for the impeachment of President Donald Trump in 2020.
Several months before the impeachment proceedings, Trump had blocked $391 million in military aid to Ukraine. Shortly after, Trump asked the newly elected Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to investigate discredited corruption allegations involving Joe Biden, then the most likely Democratic candidate to face Trump in the elections.
As a result, Trump was accused of illegally soliciting a foreign entity—Ukraine—to intervene in the American political system, and of changing state policy to help him personally. The impeachment vote narrowly failed.
Understand Russia’s Relationship With the West
The tension between the regions is growing and Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly willing to take geopolitical risks and assert his demands.
Ukraine was also at the center of a scandal involving a former Trump campaign manager, Paul Manafort. In 2018, Manafort was jailed for hiding more than 30 million dollars on consulting fees he received from Ukrainian oligarchs and government officials to promote the political career of Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian Ukrainian president who was ousted in the 2014 uprising. Manafort advised Yanukovych between 2006 and 2014, before the president fled to Russia and before Manafort started working for Trump.
Hadn’t Russia already invaded parts of the Ukraine?
Yes. Following the 2014 uprising, Russian troops wearing uniforms without identifications invaded Crimea, a strategically important Black Sea peninsula. In a referendum deemed illegal by most countries in the world, the region voted overwhelmingly to join Russia.
Later in 2014, pro-Russian separatists backed by Russian troops, equipment and weapons captured parts of eastern Ukraine, creating two rogue republics —Donetsk and Lugansk regions— which remain unrecognized by any other State.
Fighting continues today between the Ukrainian state and separatists. For many Ukrainians, the threat of further Russian intervention in Ukraine is just the latest chapter in an unfinished eight-year war. And it is possible that war will continue, whether Russia invades in the next few days or not.
What do the Ukrainians want?
The threat of another Russian invasion has consolidated a growing sense of pride and national unity among Ukrainians, even among those who grew up speaking Russian.
Even since 2001, opinion polls indicate that about half of Ukrainians support the country’s exit from the Soviet Union. Today, more than 80 percent support Ukraine’s independence and more than half support joining NATO.
Although the anxiety can be felt throughout the country, life continues more or less normally in most of it. Both civilians and government leaders say that keep calm amid foreign reports of an impending invasion, and some even say they doubt Russia will actually invade. At the same time, however, many civilians have increasingly joined voluntary defense units and have enrolled in first aid courses.
How could Ukraine and its sympathizers stop another Russian invasion?
Ukraine could promise to give up any effort to join NATO or abide by a pair of never-enforced peace deals, signed in 2014 and 2015, that were seen as favorable to Russia.
Under these agreements, known as the Minsk Protocolthe two breakaway territories would be re-annexed to Ukraine, but only in a federal system that could give the territories veto power over Ukrainian foreign policy.
However, the hands of the Ukrainian government are tied, at least in the short term. Abandoning NATO’s aspirations would go against the Ukrainian Constitution. And a poll in December revealed that three-quarters of Ukrainians completely reject carrying out the Minsk Protocol or want the agreements to be amended.
The United States and Europe have more aces up their sleeves. Washington could remove the largest financial institutions from Russia of the global financial system, which would affect the Russian economy. Germany could stop the implementation of Nord Stream 2, a major new pipeline that will transport Russian gas to Europe. The UK could put restrictions on Russian oligarchs with property and assets in the country.
And there is also the diplomatic route: the Kremlin insists that this crisis is not just about Ukraine, but also about NATO’s military presence in Eastern Europe, which Russian President Vladimir Putin describes as an existential threat to the Russian security.
Putin wants NATO to withdraw from the region and to ensure that neither Ukraine nor any other country will ever join the alliance. US President Joe Biden reiterates that the United States is ready to continue the talks, but that he will remain committed to the idea that each country is free to choose its own alliances.
Why is Ukraine so vulnerable?
Although it receives money and weapons from the West, Ukraine is not actually a NATO member and therefore cannot count on US and US-allied military support directly. Its military, though it has received hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from the West in recent years, still does not compare to Russia’s.
Furthermore, he is surrounded by Russian allies and emissaries, and by Russia itself. Russian troops are massed in large numbers not only along Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia, but also along the border with Belarus, just 80 kilometers north of Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. Russian troops are also stationed in Transnistria, a small and unrecognized autonomous territorial unit from Moldova, west of Ukraine. If Russian troops invade some or all of these locations, the Ukrainian military could be pushed to its limits and may not be able to mount an effective defense.
Potential allies like Germany might also be wary of taking economic steps to discourage Russia. Europe is highly dependent on Russian fuel and Russia is a major trading partner of Germany.
What are the possible economic effects of an invasion?
The routes of some of the world’s leading grain suppliers traverse the Black Sea, which borders Russia and Ukraine, two major wheat producers. Military action could disrupt grain production and distribution, driving up food costs for consumers around the world.
Russia supplies about a third of Europe’s gas, most of which is shipped through Ukraine today. Any disruption at either end of that supply chain would force European countries to look elsewhere for fuel, which is likely to drive up world oil prices.
Is it certain that there will be an invasion?
Not necessarily.
The United States and other countries say an invasion is possible within days and have evacuated personnel from the Ukrainian capital as part of the preparations. However, Ukraine and the United States could still implement measures to reassure Russia. And even Russia could prevent an invasion.
The economic damage from Western sanctions and the potential death toll from an extended war in Ukraine may be too great a cost for Moscow to bear.
Patrick Kingsley is the Jerusalem bureau chief, covering Israel and the occupied territories. He has reported from over 40 countries, written two books and previously covered migration and the Middle East for The Guardian.@PatrickKingsley