- Jonathan Beale
- BBC Defense Correspondent
3 hours
image source, Archyde.com
Ukrainian military have revealed photographs of abandoned Russian vehicles.
Ukraine claims to have made significant gains against Russian troops, retaking more than 3,000 km² of territory in recent days.
“Don’t overestimate Ukraine’s ability to surprise,” a senior US military official told me earlier this summer, as Russia continued to advance into Donbas.
Ukraine’s ability to surprise has become a hallmark of this war. They first forced the Russian withdrawal from Kyivthe capital, and then made attacks in crimeapeninsula under Russian rule since 2014.
Now one more surprise is happening in the east of the country.
Despite a slow, grueling and costly advance for her army, Russia had made her greatest gains in this area. Now it is Ukraine that is advancing here, recovering thousands of km² of territory in a matter of days.
The largest Ukrainian conquests have been in the east around Kharkiv. The latest intelligence report from the United Kingdom indicates that the liberated territories comprise around more than 3,000 km², although it is difficult to specify due to the continuous battles and the vetoed access of journalists to the front line.
Ukraine claims to have captured key and important cities such as Izyum and Kupiansk, logistics hubs used by Russia to supply its troops in Donbas. Those losses alone deal a tremendous blow to the Russian military.
Keys to the Ukrainian advance
The surprise has been the key to the Ukrainian advances. that and the clever use of western weaponsincluding British and American long-range missile platforms, used to destroy Russian supply lines, ammunition dumps and command posts.
Last week, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said long-range artillery had hit more than 400 key targets over the summer.
Before the advent of these weapons, Russia always held a numerical advantage in artillery. Now things seem to have changed and US intelligence officials say Russia seeks help from North Korea to seize millions of artillery shells, suggesting that its reserves have been seriously depleted in six months of conflict.
The impact of those Western weapons and the Ukrainian determination to recapture territory have forced Russian forces to play what looks like a chaotic retreat. Images on social networks show tanks, armored vehicles, weapons and ammunition abandoned and left behind in a hurry.
image source, Archyde.com
Russian troops, in their hasty attempt to withdraw, have left abandoned weapons and ammunition dumps.
Interestingly, the advance in the east has been much faster than the well-publicized offensive by the Ukrainians in the south towards the city of Kherson.
Ukraine had telegraphed that offensive long before it began, while remaining silent about its plans for the east. Now it all seems to have been part of his plan: distract while hiding what he was preparing in the east.
It is clear that Ukraine successfully misled Russia. For the past few months, Russia has been redeploying forces from the east to bolster its defenses in the south. Both fronts are now vulnerable.
Why do the Ukrainian advances also imply danger?
Ukraine is finding it harder to make gains in the south, where they are more exposed and have to fight mostly in the open. An advancing army needs more troops and firepower to defeat a defending army.
The danger to Ukraine now is similar to that Russia faced in the early phases of the war in terms of ammunition, equipment and troops. The higher the profits, the longer and more exposed the supply lines will bewhich could be attacked from the Russian defense.
There is also the risk that those forces that have advanced further create a bulge in the defensive line, and may find themselves surrounded.
Despite the optimism, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov warned that his forces in the east could be more vulnerable to a Russian counterattack. Taking territory is not enough. An army also has to hold the conquered ground.
Ukraine’s double offensive remains risky and can easily suffer setbacks. However, this goes beyond making up ground, even if that is the ultimate goal.
Ukraine is sending a signal to the world that it really believes it can win this war and is using its gains to ask for more Western weapons.
This offensive comes at a critical time. We are at the gates of winter in Europe, when it will be harder to fight and the will of the West will be tested.
The war is far from over, but Ukraine once again shows the world its ability to surprise and overcome adversity.
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