Why Turkish voters are suddenly turning away from Erdogan

Almost a year after his victory in the presidential election, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wanted to recapture Istanbul, Ankara and other cities for the AKP. But his candidates failed badly in the local elections on Sunday. The opposition is already hoping for an imminent change of power.

Why is the result of the local elections described as historic?

The Islamic conservative AKP suffered its worst electoral debacle in two decades. The opposition center-left CHP party became the country’s strongest party with 37.6 percent. The AKP got 35.7 percent. This means that for the first time since its founding in 2002, the AKP is only the second strongest force in a local election nationwide. President Erdogan also failed to achieve his stated goal of bringing back the politically important metropolis of Istanbul with its 16 million inhabitants. This shows that Erdogan is not omnipotent, even though he used all of the state’s resources for himself.

What were the voters’ motives why they now overwhelmingly voted for the opposition?

Political observers blame Erdogan’s defeat primarily on high inflation, recently at more than 67 percent, and economic policy. The unwritten agreement between Erdogan and the Turkish people – loyalty in exchange for prosperity – no longer works. The economic situation is driving people in the middle and lower classes in particular into existential crises. In street surveys, more and more people reported that they had to go to bed hungry or start working again in their 70s because their pension was not enough to survive. The promised reconstruction in the earthquake areas is still falling short of expectations. “The Turkish people have said ‘stop’ to the government,” analyzes political scientist Suat Özcelebi. Added to this is the extremely low voter turnout. This time, many deeply frustrated AKP supporters simply stayed at home.

How did Erdogan react?

He admitted defeat on election night – an unusual role for the politician who is used to success. “This is not the end for us, but a turning point,” he said, trying to explain the historic election defeat to some extent. However, he couldn’t hide the fact that his aura of invincibility has finally been broken.

What does the election victory mean for the opposition?

The CHP’s historic success in local elections could be a harbinger for the coming presidential elections. A lot can still happen between now and then – the Turkish population will not vote on the president again until 2028 – but the largest opposition party has already shown that it can win elections despite the ruling party’s dominance. Erdogan’s AKP was able to draw on state resources and dominates media coverage. But the opposition managed to respond to people’s problems – across all ethnic and political boundaries.