As bombs rain down on Ukraine and that European and American sanctions are multiplying to asphyxiate the Russian economy, the war also upsets the world of energy. And increases the pressure on the Western oil and gas majors, historically present in Russia to exploit its hydrocarbons.
Including the French group TotalEnergies, which has relied heavily on the country of Vladimir Putin to develop its strategy in liquefied natural gas (LNG). After 2014 and the Russian annexation of Crimea, the tricolor multinational had already done everything to carry out, at all costs, the Yamal LNG LNG extraction project in northern Russia, despite Western sanctions.
While the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, now points to the “ problem of principle to work with any political or economic figure close to Russian power “, and affirmed Tuesday that he was going” discuss it with the president of Total “, the latter does not intend to disengage any time soon. And is content to promise that ” it will no longer provide capital for new projects in Russia ».
Chain divestments
But in this strategy, TotalEnergies finds itself well isolated. Because most of the major Western oil groups withdrew overnight from the country of Vladimir Putin, following his offensive of February 24. The British BP and Shell, first of all, which respectively announced on February 27 and 28 their intention to withdraw from the Russian oil giant Rosneft for BP (in which it holds 19.75%), and from the gas group Gazprom for Shell. But also the Norwegian company Equinor, which has given up on its stake in Rosneft and in the Salym and Sakhalin 2 projects, which were worth some $3 billion at the end of 2021.
Even the American oil and gas giant ExxonMobil decided on Wednesday to gradually freeze its investments in Russia, while the Italian Eni promised to sell its 50% share in the Blue Stream gas pipeline, intended for the Turkish market.
“All these divestments are primarily intended to send a very strong message to Putin. The one that Western private companies do not wait for a political decision to act. Even if, in fact, behind the scenes, they received directives from the authorities, ”comments John Plassard, deputy director of the Swiss banking and financial group Mirabaud.
Projects at the heart of the company’s growth strategy
But the situation is different for TotalEnergies, explains to The gallery Ahmed Ben Salem, oil and gas consultant at Oddo BHF. Because his projects on the spot relate to ” key areas of its growth strategy “, he explains. Concretely, TotalEnergies is a 19.4% shareholder in the giant Novatek, number two in Russian gas, and holds a 20% stake in Yamal LNG., which produced more than 18 million tonnes of LNG in 2020 (this transiting by ship rather than by pipeline). The group also holds a 10% stake in Arctic LNG 2, the start-up of which is scheduled for 2023. And if we take into account the stakes in Novatek itself, TotalEnergies even owns 29.7% of Yamal LNG, and 21.64% Artic LNG 2.
“These are all liquefied natural gas exploitation sites. However, according to Patrick Pouyanné [le PDG de TotalEnergies, ndlr], if we want to succeed in getting out of oil, we have to turn to renewable energies but also to gas. LNG therefore represents a major activity in its plan towards the transition, and disengaging from it today is not at all in line with its long-term strategy! “Slips a source close to the company to La Tribune.
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Reorganization of the asset portfolio
However, in terms of financial assets, BP is even more exposed than TotalEnergies. But unlike TotalEnergies, BP does not necessarily have an interest in dragging on in Russia, argues Ahmed Ben Salem.
“BP was in Russia rather by constraint, following the acquisition by Rosneft of TNK-BP in 2012”, he specifies.
Created in 2003 by BP and the consortium of Russian oligarchs Alfa Access Renova (AAR), TNK-BP had indeed been mired in a conflict between shareholders since the signing of an alliance between BP and Rosneft to explore the Arctic, which ultimately failed due to opposition from AAR.
BP had therefore finally found a compromise, and sold its share to Rosneft, recovering more than 19% of the Russian public group. “ For BP, the current situation therefore represents an opportunity to be seized to get out of it. “, argues Ahmed Ben Salem. Especially since the risk that all of Rosneft’s assets will be requisitioned by the Russian state (which already owns 40%), given the current situation, is not zero.
« Some companies invested in these Russian state hydrocarbon extraction monopolies also see it as an opportunity to draw a final line on these assets. Because they posed a problem, both from a geopolitical point of view and to trigger the energy transition. Otherwise, they would probably have resisted the political pressure pushing them out of Russia. “, abounds Jérémie Haddad, partner at EY and energy specialist. As is currently the case for TotalEnergies.
“During the last general meetings of shareholders, we saw that these groups finally understood that their business as usual was not sustainable, and that it was necessary to offload the most problematic part of their portfolio. We can formulate the hypothesis that we will find ourselves at the end of 2022 with a BP which will have considerably reorganized its portfolio of assets rather towards renewable energies and clean tech, offering visibility to analysts and reducing its reputational risk. he.
Valuable know-how
Still, no one really knows to whom the shares of BP, Shell and other Equinor will be sold. ” They won’t be injecting more capital into it, but there won’t be a buyer for a while. Especially since when the latter comes, he will demand a low price, since no one wants to acquire Russian assets today. “Said Ahmed Ben Salem.
“Either the Russians will buy them back – but that’s hard to imagine in the short term, especially since financial transactions are blocked. Either they will be sold to other players who are less attentive to the current war and to climate issues. For example, to the Chinese, who seek to secure their energy supply,” argues Jérémie Haddad.
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But if, in fact, Equinor, BP, Shell or Exxonmobil will therefore not be able to sell their assets immediately, this does not mean that their departure will not have consequences for the health of the Russian groups concerned. ” They need the know-how of Western companies “, explains Ahmed Ben Salem.
For Artic LNG 2, supported by Novatek and TotalEnergies, the French engineering company Technip Energies ” is the only one who knows how to build the modules of the structure “, illustrates the analyst. As for TotalEnergies, its know-how in the trading, in particular on its customer portfolio and the management of its teams, remain valuable for Novatek in order to export its LNG. If the two French companies decide in turn to jump ship, the Russian gas company might therefore find itself severely handicapped.
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