After three weeks of fighting, Russia still from Kursk Ukraine is struggling to evacuate the army, which the Second World war After this there is a surprisingly slow and low-key reaction to the first occupation of the territory.
It all depends on Russian manpower and priorities.
With most of its military operations inside Ukraine, the Kremlin appears to lack the resources to expel Kiev’s forces.
President Vladimir Putin does not view the attack as a serious enough threat, or at least does not give the impression, that it would warrant the withdrawal of troops from the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, his preferred target.
Tatyana Stenova, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center, wrote:Putin is focused on the collapse of the Ukrainian state, which they believe would automatically make any territorial control irrelevant.’
Putin’s priorities
A few months after the invasion began in 2022, Putin illegally annexed the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson as part of Russia, and their full occupation has been a top priority. He announced in June that Kiev would have to withdraw its forces from areas it controls as a condition for peace talks.
Nigel Gould-Davis of the International Institute of Strategic Studies says that ‘Russia is doing everything it can to avoid withdrawing troops from the Donbass.
Russia currently believes it can contain the threat on its soil without compromising its most important objective in Ukraine.’
Even as Ukrainian forces entered Kursk on August 6, Russian troops continued their slow advance around the strategic city of Pokrovsk and other parts of the Donetsk region.
Nico Lang, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, says:Russia Keen to continue attacks on Pokrovsk and not take Kursk resources away from Pokrovsk.
Unlike Pokrovsk where Ukrainian forces have taken extensive security measures, other parts of Donetsk are still under Ukrainian control and could be significantly more vulnerable to a Russian attack if Pokrovsk falls.
Speaking about Kursk in televised meetings with officials, Putin described the attack as an attempt by Kiev to slow down the Russian campaign in Donetsk. He said that despite the events of Kursk, the Russian advance has accelerated there.
To increase pressure on Ukraine, Russia has also launched a series of long-range attacks on the power grid.
Monday’s attack on energy facilities was the biggest and deadliest of the war, involving more than 200 missiles and drones and causing a massive blackout. The attack has highlighted flaws in Ukraine’s air defenses that span front-line troops as well as infrastructure protection.
Reducing the intensity of the attack
Focusing on seizing four Ukrainian territories, Putin has tried to downplay Kiev’s move in Kursk.
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“Instead of rallying the public against a threat to the motherland, the Kremlin is trying to downplay the attack,” said Gold Davies of the London-based IISS.
Faced with the reality of the Russian occupation of territory, the state propaganda machine has tried to divert attention from the obvious military failure by focusing on the government’s efforts to help the more than 130,000 residents displaced from their homes.
State media presented the attack on Kursk as evidence of Kiev’s aggressive intentions, adding that Russia had made the right decision to invade Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Stanovaya said that while many Kursk residents may be angry with the Kremlin, overall nationwide sentiment may actually be in favor of the authorities.
“While this is certainly a blow to the Kremlin’s reputation, it is unlikely to significantly increase social or political discontent among the population,” he said. Ukraine’s invasion could actually lead to rallies around the national flag and increased anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western sentiment.’
The Kremlin’s limited response
Ukraine’s chief military officer, General Oleksandr Serskyi, said his forces control about 1,300 square kilometers (about 500 square miles) and about 100 settlements in the Kursk region.
Unlike the static front lines in Donetsk, Ukrainian units could move around the region without maintaining a long presence in many of these settlements as the fighting situation changed in Kursk.
Observers say Russia does not have the coordinated resources to pursue Ukrainian forces in Kursk.
“Moscow’s efforts to counter Ukraine’s renewed offensive appear to be limited to deploying units from across Russia, including militias and illegal forces,” Ben Berry, senior fellow for ground warfare at IISS, said in a commentary. Ratio is also included.
Until the Kursk offensive, Putin has avoided the forced involvement of youth in combat to avoid public backlash.
Young soldiers drafted for a mandatory year of duty are serving far from the front and those deployed to guard the border in the Kursk region have become easy prey for Ukraine’s hardline mechanized infantry units.
Hundreds were arrested and 115 were exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers over the weekend.
Observers say Putin is also reluctant to call up more reservists for fear of internal instability, as he ordered the highly unpopular movement of 300,000 in 2022 in response to a Ukrainian counterattack. . Millions fled Russia to avoid being sent to war.
Since then, the Kremlin has increased its forces in Ukraine and lured volunteers with relatively high wages, but this trend has slowed in recent months.
A bridge is being destroyed by Ukraine in the Russian region of Kursk to stop the movement of Russian troops (AP)
A full ouster of the Ukrainian military would require tens of thousands of troops, estimated at 10,000.
Clearly lacking the resources for such a large-scale operation, Russia is currently focused on sealing roads and targeting Kiev’s resources to prevent a deeper Ukrainian advance.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has surprised the Russian military by destroying bridges over the Sam River, disrupting logistics for some Russian units in the region and creating conditions for control. Lang predicted that Ukrainian troops could use the river to create a buffer zone.
“I expect that Ukraine will find some other locations for Russian logistics and infrastructure, not necessarily just the bridges, and take control of them,” he said.
By seizing a chunk of Russian territory, Ukraine has embarrassed the Kremlin and reshaped the battlefield. But diverting some of the country’s most capable forces from the east is a gamble for Kiev.
According to IISS’s Berry, ‘all this poses considerable risk, especially if attempts to overstretch Russian forces lead to overstretching of smaller Ukrainian forces themselves.’
Attempting to gain a foothold in Kursk would further expand the frontline by more than a thousand kilometers, adding to the challenges facing Ukraine’s weakened forces.
Defending positions deep inside Russia would create serious logistical problems, with extended supply lines becoming easy targets.
“The Russian system is very hierarchical and rigid, so it always takes a long time for them to adjust to a new situation, but we have to see how Ukraine can stay there, when Russia itself,” Lang said. adapts to new conditions and returns with full force.’
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2024-08-30 01:18:23