The Middle East is on edge a week after the assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Tehran and a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut, Lebanon. Fears of a wider regional war have grown amid vows of revenge from Iranian leaders that have left Israel in a state of deep uncertainty.
Why is an Iranian attack expected?
Iran has vowed to avenge the death of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader who was killed in Tehran after he and other leaders of Iranian-backed militant groups attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Israeli leaders would not confirm or deny whether their country was behind the breach of Iran’s defenses, but Iranian leaders and Hamas leaders immediately blamed Israel and vowed retaliation.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered Iran to directly attack Israel, according to three Iranian officials briefed on the matter.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaan said Monday that “Tehran is not interested in escalating regional conflicts, but it is necessary to punish” Israel.
What is Lebanon’s relationship with the crisis?
The Iranian government has said any retaliatory strike will also involve its proxy forces, which include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militants in Iraq.
Tensions between Israel and Iran’s proxies were already high before Haniyeh’s assassination, which came the day after an Israeli strike in Beirut killed Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah official. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said after the Beirut attack that the group’s conflict with Israel had entered a new phase and threatened major retaliation.
For months, Hezbollah has attacked Israel amid the country’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets and drones at Israel, claiming to be acting in solidarity with Hamas, which is also backed by Iran. Israel has retaliated, in addition to evacuating tens of thousands of its citizens in northern Israel near the border with Lebanon.
The World Health Organization said Monday it had delivered 32 tonnes of emergency medical supplies to Lebanon in case of a major conflict.
Hours later, a rocket attack targeting U.S. personnel housed at a base in Iraq’s western desert wounded several soldiers, according to U.S. defense officials. The attack, on the Ain al-Asad air base, was similar to others carried out by Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups, which have repeatedly targeted the base in recent years and have stepped up their attacks since the Gaza war began in October.
What have Israeli leaders said?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that his country was “in a multi-front war against Iran’s axis of evil” and was “prepared for any scenario, both offensive and defensive.”
Netanyahu added: “I repeat and say to our enemies: we will respond and exact a heavy price for any act of aggression against us, no matter where it comes from.”
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant spoke with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III on Monday and briefed him on the Israeli military’s “readiness to defend Israel against potential threats posed by Iran and its proxies,” according to a statement from the Israeli government press office.
On Sunday, Gallant said at an Israeli base: “We are well prepared for defense, on the ground and in the air, and we are ready to move quickly to attack or respond. We will exact a price from the enemy, as we have been doing in recent days. If he dares to attack us, he will pay a heavy price.”
What diplomacy is being carried out?
With Iran and its allies threatening an attack on Israel, frantic diplomatic efforts are underway to prevent a major war.
President Joe Biden gathered his national security team to discuss developments in the Middle East and spoke with Jordan’s King Abdullah II on Monday, a day after Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi traveled to Tehran to meet with his Iranian counterpart. Jordan is a close ally of the West and helped intercept Iranian missiles and drones during an attack between Iran and Israel in April.
“Escalation is not in anyone’s interest,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters at a briefing on Monday. Miller added that the United States did not consider an escalation “inevitable” and was sending messages to Iran through its allies in the region that an attack would not serve Iranian or regional interests.
“The leaders discussed their efforts to reduce regional tensions, including through an immediate ceasefire and a hostage release agreement,” a White House description of the call said.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty spoke with Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, urging him to press Israel to “engage seriously” in ceasefire talks, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Blinken “reiterated that all parties must refrain from actions that could escalate the conflict,” according to the State Department.
Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, who heads U.S. Central Command, arrived in Israel on Monday to complete coordination with the Israeli military in anticipation of a possible Iranian attack, according to the Israeli military.
Gallant said that “General Kurilla’s arrival in Israel at this time is a direct translation of U.S. support for Israel, in action.”
“The relationship between Israel and the United States is unbreakable,” he said in a statement.
How do Western governments advise their citizens in the region?
Countries including the United States, Belgium, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden urged their citizens over the weekend to leave Lebanon immediately.
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France also urged its citizens in Iran to leave as soon as possible and avoid travel to “Israel and the Palestinian territories.” Canada on Saturday urged Canadians to avoid all travel to Israel due to “the unpredictable security situation.”
Several airlines had suspended or cancelled flights to and from Beirut, and many flights were sold out. International airlines such as Delta, United, the Lufthansa Group and Aegean Airlines have also suspended flights to and from Israel. The flight disruptions have left many Israelis on the move unable to return home.
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