Kuwaiti news has reported:
An official government representative expressed to Al-Anbaa a “great optimism” regarding the prospect of avoiding a large-scale war in Lebanon, amidst the “support front” set up for Gaza, following Hezbollah’s actions against Israel from southern Lebanon on October 8, 2023. This was the day after Hamas executed Operation “Flood of Al-Aqsa” in the Gaza area.
The official was reluctant to provide more details. However, they emphasized the “open-mindedness of caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and his patience in tackling all the complex issues simultaneously.” They posed the question: “What would have transpired at this point if the government had stepped down from its responsibilities?” The official urged the boycotting ministers to attend cabinet sessions “to fully share in this critical moment that the country is facing.”
Signs of optimism, details of which were not disclosed by the government official, emerged from “almost direct external communication with Hezbollah and the Lebanese government concerning guarantees required for the party’s members to stay absent south of the Litani.”
High-ranking sources disclosed to Al-Anbaa that “the communications did not involve the official Lebanese military authorities, even though they, led by the army command, affirmed their readiness to undertake their roles in the upcoming phase, similar to their actions from August 2006 until October 7, which ensured 18 years of stability.”
A former high-ranking officer noted, “Israel will persist in conducting assassinations whenever possible, recognizing that such opportunities will be limited once a ceasefire is established in Gaza and special arrangements are made with Lebanon.” The officer did not confirm this in response to a question about separating the Lebanese “support front” from the conflict in Gaza, while highlighting “the different arrangements expected for the days following the current situation in both Gaza and southern Lebanon,” and stressing the limitations on Israeli warplanes in Lebanese airspace moving forward, distinguishing between a specific international offer regarding this issue, a Lebanese insistence on safeguarding its airspace, and Israel’s obligation to adhere to the stipulations of Resolution 1701.
Simultaneously, efforts to de-escalate tensions are being actively pursued on various fronts, particularly in Lebanon, aiming to prevent any developments that might lead to an explosion before the scheduled meeting regarding the ceasefire in Gaza next Thursday, which will involve high-level participation from the countries sponsoring the negotiations.
The Lebanese authorities demonstrated a notable willingness to engage in international communications as a goodwill gesture to facilitate efforts to ease tensions along the Lebanese front, preparing for a possible settlement should there be an agreement or progress in ceasefire negotiations.
An informed source told Al-Anbaa: “Amidst widespread contacts at the highest regional and international levels aimed at calming the situation and ensuring guarantees for a resolution, these communications served as warnings disguised as advice, urging the stakeholders to support the international effort and refrain from taking actions that could lead to unpredictable outcomes.”
The source further added: “The advice cautioned against allowing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to initiate an adventure that might involve the West in an unwanted conflict, capitalizing on military escalations in the region while Western nations resist a unilateral Israeli confrontation on multiple fronts.”
Additionally, a source close to the “duo” indicated that the absence of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri from the frontlines of communication, which is uncommon, “is intended to impart a national character within a broader consensus, ensuring that the government is directly engaged with international parties working towards a resolution.”
Current Political Dynamics in Lebanon Amid Regional Tensions
It was reported in Kuwaiti news:
Optimism Amidst Regional Unrest
An official government spokesperson conveyed to Al-Anbaa a sense of great optimism about reaching a solution that would prevent a large-scale war from erupting in Lebanon. This comes within the context of the “support front” for Gaza, which Hezbollah initiated against Israel from southern Lebanon on October 8, 2023, following Hamas’s operations in the Gaza envelope settlement.
Government Response and Leadership
The official identified the broad-mindedness exhibited by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati as a pivotal factor in navigating the current tensions. He highlighted the importance of ministers attending cabinet sessions, promoting a fully cooperative front during this critical juncture. The official underscored, “What would have happened at this stage if the government had resigned from its duties?” indicating that cohesive governance is essential during instability.
Hezbollah and Communication Channels
Signs of optimism were hinted through almost direct external communications involving Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, suggesting an effort to provide guarantees that would allow the absence of Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon. These discussions were not made public, but reports indicate that a collaborative approach is being encouraged to mitigate the regional turmoil.
Military Readiness and Strategic Planning
Senior sources informed Al-Anbaa that communications primarily involved informal channels, notably bypassing official Lebanese military authorities. The Lebanese Armed Forces, however, have expressed their readiness to assume a stabilizing role, reminiscent of their contributions from August 2006 to October 2023, a period that was marked by relative peace.
Israeli Operations and Regional Implications
A former high-ranking military official remarked that Israel is likely to continue with targeted operations until a ceasefire is established in Gaza. He noted that any constructive ceasefire agreement along with special arrangements concerning Lebanon would significantly reduce the operational space for these targeted actions. This raises concerns over ongoing violations of Lebanese airspace and the proactive steps needed to reinforce Resolution 1701.
Cooling Measures and Diplomatic Engagement
Amidst escalating tensions, efforts aimed at cooling the situation are being undertaken, particularly in Lebanon. The objective is to prevent any actions that could escalate the conflict ahead of an anticipated ceasefire meeting concerning Gaza. Countries involved in facilitating the ceasefire negotiations will participate at a high level, underscoring the importance of international diplomacy.
Lebanon’s Responsiveness to International Outreach
The Lebanese authorities have exhibited responsiveness to international communications, aligning their diplomatic efforts with broader strategies aimed at de-escalation. As peace negotiations progress, there is a concerted effort to develop a framework that involves cooperative governance and communication channels with international stakeholders.
Contextual Factors and Strategic Advice
In the midst of top-level regional and international discussions, one informed source reported that contacts are being framed as advice—prudent guidance urging caution to avoid miscalculations. Notably, this includes warnings to refrain from enabling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to initiate an aggressive military strategy that could unintentionally pull Western nations into a war.
Understanding the Absence of Key Political Figures
Interestingly, the absence of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri from recent communication efforts has drawn attention. This is perceived as a strategic move to foster a more unified national front focusing directly on government communication with international negotiators. The intention behind this absence is to cultivate trust and promote a comprehensive understanding as the government navigates these tumultuous waters.
Building Trust and Mechanisms for Peace
The challenges presented by Lebanon’s current political landscape necessitate robust mechanisms designed to build trust among various stakeholders. These mechanisms include:
- Regular Diplomatic Dialogues: Establishing a consistent dialogue with external and local parties to foster mutual understanding and cooperative strategies.
- Inclusive Governance: Encouraging all governmental factions to engage in decision-making processes to ensure representation and stability.
- Crisis Management Frameworks: Implementing protocols that enable swift responses to emerging tensions, thereby reducing the chances of escalatory incidents.
Practical Tips for Engaging in Peacebuilding Efforts
To effectively contribute to peacebuilding in such a complex environment, consider the following practical tips:
- Promote Open Communication: Encourage dialogue across borders and within different factions to reduce misunderstandings.
- Stay Informed: Follow reliable news sources to remain updated on developments that could affect peace negotiations.
- Involve Civil Society: Engage local communities in peace efforts to ensure broad-based support and participation.
Conclusion
As Lebanon navigates the delicate balance of internal governance and external pressures, the importance of collaboration and strategic diplomacy cannot be overstated. The key stakeholders must remain vigilant and proactive to work towards a peaceful resolution that prioritizes the nation’s stability and the welfare of its citizens.
