The pan-African concert scheduled for Dakar on September 17 will not take place. It was to be the start of a citizen campaign to raise awareness on democratic issues. The prefecture believes that holding the event “entails the risk of public disorder and accidents.“The event, including the citizen movement”Let’s turn the page”, is on the initiative, wanted to be in favor of a limitation to two presidential terms.
The ban on the concert comes as Senegalese President Macky Sall remains unclear regarding his political intentions. After legislative elections where the opposition is trailing the presidential camp by a single seat in the National Assembly, will he try to run for a third term in the presidential election of 2024? Often seen as a generator of instability in the countries of the African continent, the issue of the third presidential term is a recurring issue. What are the issues ?
A vector of political instability
In 2015, it is a turning point in Burundi. President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a third term in April this year”sparked protests, brutal repression, an ill-planned coup attempt and a purge of military leaders seen as not loyal enough to the president”, list Joseph Siegle and Candace Cook, in an article by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (an Organization dependent on the Department of Defense of the United States and financed by the American Congress)published in August 2021. This is not an isolated case. In Côte d’Ivoire, violent demonstrations erupted in August 2020, to protest Alassane Ouattara’s candidacy for a third term.
Not only does it rhyme with instability but it calls for instability.Roger Koudé, professor of international law at IDHL
Senegal almost experienced a third term of President Abdoulaye Wade. In 2012, when the Constitutional Council validated the latter’s third candidacy, the city of Dakar became the scene of violent clashes between anti-riot forces and demonstrators. Despite this, he maintains his candidacy, but is defeated. Macky Sall is elected. “Eight ongoing internal or political conflicts in Africa are in countries that do not have term limits or where they have not been respected”, observe in 2021 Joseph Siegle and Candace Cook. “We’re in a vicious circle, we can’t get out of it” analyzes for his part Roger Koudé, professor of international law at the Institute of Human Rights in Lyon (IDHL), attached to the Catholic University of Lyon. “Not only does it rhyme with instability but it calls for instability”, he considers. “When everyone realizes that the political game is locked and nothing is going to move, it means that there is going to be political instability”.
A coup is truly symptomatic of the chaos created by a head of state’s desire to run for a third term.David Dosseh, initiator of the citizen movement Tournons la page
Also, freedom from term limits may lead some presidents of the countries concerned to their loss. On September 5, 2021, Guinean President Alpha Condé was removed from office by the Groupement des Forces Spéciales, a military unit. Less than a year earlier, he had been re-elected for a contested third term. David Dosseh, initiator of the citizen movement “Let’s turn the page”, which campaigns for a limitation to two presidential terms, believes that it is necessary to ask the question of what led to this coup. He considers that “a coup is truly symptomatic of the chaos created by a head of state’s desire to run for a third term.”
Valid reasons to cling to power?
Despite the risk of plunging a country into chaos, how can we explain the stubbornness of leaders to cling to power? Roger Koudé lists several hypotheses that attempt to justify this. According to him, “these are all arguments that do not hold.” “Most often, we will say that because of the security context or for the stability of the country, you necessarily need a man of experience capable of leading the country.”, explains the professor of international law. Gold, “it’s hard to believe that no one else can lead the country apart from the incumbent president“, he analyzes.
Another argument that is put forward quite often, “that is to say that the team in place has launched a certain number of projects and that they should be left in power to continue their actions“, continues Roger Koudé. Except that when a president is elected, the term of office is already determined. He therefore knows that he has an allotted time to implement his program. “It cannot be said that those who defend the thesis of continuing what has been started would be surprised in some way by the time”, analyzes the professor. “And if at the end of the mandate, you have not been able to do what you promised to do, knowing that it is on this basis that you were elected, there is a problem.“According to activist David Dosseh, heads of state who seek to retain power do not”out of excessive devotion to the people, but to preserve personal advantages.”
Why would a country like Congo or Chad have more constraints and demands than another country, like the United States, to the point of extending the president’s mandate indefinitely?Roger Koudé, professor of international law at IDHL
Looking more broadly at the international level, international law professor Roger Koudé invites us to question the legitimacy of the process. “Why would a country like Congo or Chad have more constraints and demands than another country, like the United States, to the point of extending the president’s mandate indefinitely?” Moreover, he notes that the works started during the first “regulatory” mandates “never end and the result is far from satisfactory.” For him, all these arguments are actually “strategies of confiscating power because those in power do not want to play the democratic game.”
A contagious phenomenon?
“In 2015 and 2016, other Central African leaders, such as Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Denis Sassou-Nguesso in the Republic of Congo and Joseph Kabila in the Democratic Republic of Congo“played with the rules for”stay in power longer”, analyze the authors of the article from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. They also note that since 2015, thirteen African leaders have circumvented term limits. “Although the circumvention of term limits in Africa has existed since the end of the Cold War and not since 2015, it has accelerated considerably since then.”, analyze Joseph Siegle and Candace Cook. Roger Koudé, for his part, believes that there are “at least 26 or 27 countries, mostly French-speaking, which have experimented or practiced in one way or another this third term system.”
When a leader succeeds in running for a third term, a second follows in his footsteps, and that inspires others.David Dosseh, initiator of the citizen movement “Let’s turn the page”
Third mandate: instructions for use
When a ruler seeks to retain power longer than he should, he generally does so in two ways.
- Either by amending the Constitutionsometimes called constitutional “tampering”: “When a country’s Constitution limits the number of terms to two, they change it when the end of their term is near.”, explains David Dosseh. “From there, they demand that the counter be reset to allow them to run for another and a second term.”
- Either by interfering in the electoral process : “DIn countries where the Constitution does not limit the number of terms of office and they have to go through elections, all they do is vitiate the electoral process, continues the activist. They are putting everything in place to ensure their re-election.”
David Dosseh meanwhile does not hesitate to speak of “third term pandemic.” For him, “when a leader succeeds in running for a third term, a second follows in his footsteps, and this inspires others.” According to him, the president of Côte d’Ivoire Alassane Ouattara would have benefited from the support of his Guinean counterpart Alpha Condé to run for a third term because the latter had similar ambitions. One of the countries that currently escapes this “third term pandemic” is Senegal. “I hope wisdom will prevail”, admits Roger Koudé. “It would be a shame for President Macky Sall to come and commit this act in Senegal, I’m not sure it would be something good for this French-speaking Africa.”
