2024-03-16 16:13:00
Some cities are also more affected than others such as Charleroi, the main metropolis of Wallonia, which has 10% of blank and invalid votes. Generally speaking, we observe that blank votes are greater in countries where voting is compulsory such as Belgium or Luxembourg for European countries.
But why vote blank? Pascal Delwit, political scientist at ULB, explains: “By voting blank, you are not taking a position, but in a certain way, it is a position. It is also a form of protest. In a constituency or on the scale of a region or a country , if there is a significant number of blank and invalid votes, it is because something is happening. In a certain way, it has a certain function of alarming a certain unease on a part of population”.
There is therefore a big difference between a blank vote and an invalid vote, since the blank vote involves going to the polling station, and choosing not to vote for any of the candidates. An invalid vote can be an error, like doodling or voting for candidates who are not on the same list, but it can also be a strategic choice.
The party’s program has only one point: changing the electoral system so that voters who do not wish to support the parties running can vote for an empty seat. And that blank votes therefore have a real impact in the distribution of seats. But is this really a good idea?
What impact can the idea of the Blanco party have, namely counting white votes in empty seats?
Would this change in the electoral process have a long-term impact? “We must keep in mind that if we start to eliminate seats based on blank votes, there will be effects,” guarded by Pascal Delwit.
There would be at least two important effects, which the political scientist details: “The 1st, inevitably, if there are fewer seats, it will be more difficult to form a majority. And the 2nd: if you have to vote for a modification of the Constitution or adopt a special law, in both cases, there must be at least one condition: having at least 100 seats. If we no longer base ourselves on 150 seats, but on 141 or 142, it becomes extremely complicated to reach 100 votes…”
For him, the position of the Blanco party is legitimate. But the effects are significant: “There are not many possibilities for counting blank votes: either have an effect on the distribution of seats (as the Blanco party wants), or it remains information for the population and legislators (as now). But the blank vote is the refusal to choose. If we follow the logic of the Blanco party, the impact would be virtuous but might possibly have dramatic effects.”
But are there countries that recognize the blank vote and integrate it according to the logic of the Blanco party? In Spain, the blank vote is recognized and recorded, and it is considered a valid vote. It is therefore taken into account for the calculation of the threshold for participation in sharing the number of seats. There is also a political party called “White Seats” (Escaños Blancos) which calls for empty seats to be allocated in proportion to white votes.
Blank and invalid votes, but also abstention, on the rise: the evolution of the figures
Added to these blank and invalid votes are the abstainers. At the 2019 federal elections, there were 11.62% of citizens who did not travel despite the compulsory nature of voting, or around 1 million Belgians. A record. “It’s increasing, both blank and invalid votes, but also abstention,” note Pascal Delwit.
But certain municipalities or cities may be more affected by this double phenomenon: “This is the case of Charleroi for example.” The abstention rate for municipal elections in 2018 stood at 26% compared to only 4% for the municipality of Uccle for comparison. For the 2019 regional elections, this rate was 15% in Hainaut, and 10% of the ballots cast were blank and invalid.
If we add the number of blank and invalid votes (6.07%) to that of abstentions (11.62%) for the 2019 elections, we obtain 17% of invalid votes, or 1.3 million Belgians. For comparison, abstention was only 4.93% during the 1977 elections. And since then, the upward trend has been confirmed, as the figures show:
Why are abstentions and blank and invalid votes increasing?
Blank or invalid voting is a constant habit among Belgians: 4.7% in 2007, but already 6.5% in 1991 or even 8% in 1978. Note that the partial introduction of electronic voting had a downward influence on the phenomenon since an invalid vote is not possible. The figures, which count both invalid and blank votes, have therefore fallen significantly since the switch to electronic voting.
But we still notice a certain increase in the phenomenon, as well as abstention. “In a way, it is in line with what we observe in Europe: over the last 35-40 years, abstention has increased, sometimes very significantly in certain countries”, explains Pascal Delwit. For the political scientist, this increase can be explained by 3 elements:
- On the one hand, there is “a form of detachment” of a part of the population in relation to political and institutional life (electoral processes, parliament, etc.). “There is a form of distancing from political life” ;
- Secondly, there is also “a form of disaffiliation of a part of the citizens from political life”, almost like an escape from the real-life world. “We call them disaffiliated from political and social life, it is especially on the increase in urban areas where there is deep unease, for example in Charleroi”explains Pascal Delwit;
- And finally, there is lower electoral participation among young people: “Before, we were talking regarding 18-24 year olds, now it extends more to 18-34 year olds. Participation is much lower than those over 35.”
Increase in abstention and blank and invalid votes: a European trend
This double increasing phenomenon, whether abstention or blank and invalid votes, is not unique to Belgium: “We are seeing, as a trend, a declining electoral participation in Europe,” notes Pascal Delwit. This downward participation can be explained by several factors. According to several studies, voting is not experienced in the same way by old and new generations, explains the political scientist.
“For new generations, voting is seen as a right. Whereas for older generations, voting is seen as a duty. The motivation is therefore not at all the same. And second difference: new generations see voting as a modality of political participation but which is not exclusive and not particularly interesting. While the older generation sees voting as the main modality and therefore as the most important”, specifies Pascal Delwit.
These differences in perception of the electoral process play a large part in the final abstention, and the choice of some to vote blank or invalid. But this increase is not linear: “In Portugal, during this weekend’s elections, there was more participation than in previous elections for example.”
What regarding the 2024 elections? According to our survey, 9% of Belgians will vote blank
For the elections on June 9, according to our Big Barometer, 9% of respondents explain that they will vote, but blank. And Wallonia stands out with 11%, compared to 9% in Brussels and 7% in the north.
Wallonia is decidedly more hostile to voting than its neighbors in the north of the country: according to our survey, 8% of Walloons explain that they simply will not vote, compared to 6% in Brussels and 4% in Flanders.
If we look in more detail at the figures from our Big Barometer, on average, it will be those over 55 who will mainly vote, while a very large number of young people will put a blank ballot in the box.
Concerning the practical side of elections, several reform initiatives have already been taken at certain levels of jurisdiction. For the European elections, young people aged 16 and over will be able to vote. The Flemish Region has decided to remove the voting obligation from the next regional elections. As for Wallonia, the Region has decided to completely abandon electronic voting and return to paper ballots.
Figures: Large Barometer RTLinfo-Ipsos-Le Soir, margin of error 3.1%
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