Abu Dhabi, EAU (CNN) — Protests continued across Iran on Sunday despite a government crackdown and state media reports that protesters have ended their rallies.
The protests, which have reached their tenth day, began as a result of the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, who died in hospital three days following being detained by Tehran’s morality police and taken to a “re-education center” for failing to follow state hijab regulations.
Since then there have been protests in more than 40 cities, including the capital Tehran, with dozens killed in clashes with security forces. At least 1,200 people were arrested, according to state-backed media.
The rallies, which began calling for justice for Amini’s death, have morphed into broader protests, uniting a range of social factions and classes, with many calling for the fall of the regime.
Here’s what you need to know regarding the protests:
How are the current protests different?
Today’s protests are no different from previous anti-government movements, but the core issues driving the mobilization today are different, experts say, which might make them more significant.
The previous waves of protests, in 20192021 and, more recently, this year, were mainly driven by economic issues, says Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation in London, adding that it was one of the main reasons the protests did not spread. to other segments of society.
“This is different, because what people are really asking for is a more significant kind of political change,” Batmanghelidj said, adding that this movement has facilitated “the generation of solidarity between different social groups.”
Today’s protests are also bringing together younger Iranians with internet access who haven’t known a pre-Islamic Iran, said Sanam Vakil, senior fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at think tank Chatham House. London.
Demonstrators chant slogans during a protest over the death of a woman who was detained by the morality police, in central Tehran, Iran, on September 21. Credit: AP
How safe does the government feel now?
Iran’s government doesn’t seem to feel any more vulnerable than before, said Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington. “And they may be miscalculating.”
Experts expect the protests to intensify. This Sunday, one of Iran’s main teachers’ unions called for a nationwide strike. Workers’ strikes are sensitive in Iran because they bring to mind the 1979 revolution, when collective labor action acted as a useful tactic that helped topple the Shah.
“I think it is quite likely that there will be more strikes, because the strikes were already happening before this [movimiento]Parsi said. “They may end up reinforcing each other,” he said, adding that the strikes might put more pressure on the government.
How likely is the government to make concessions and what would they be like?
According to analysts, the end of the protests is more likely to come through the use of brute force than through concessions.
The government has blamed Western media for instigating the protests, citing foreign conspiracies. Analysts say that determines how they will be treated.
“If they see this as a security threat and not a matter of political expediency, then they are more likely to respond using the tools of their security apparatus,” Batmanghelidj said. “The government has much more capacity for repression than for reform right now.”
Vakil said that even if the authorities make concessions through small reforms, the most important question will be “how to get these young women to wear the hijab once more.”
One face-saving result would be a backsliding on morality policing, he said, adding that a complete removal of the hijab law is unlikely. A referendum that would allow Iranians to vote on the hijab issue might also help quell protests, she said, questioning whether that would happen as well.
At what point does the government become vulnerable and how close is it to that point?
Despite ten days of demonstrations that have spread across the country as the death toll has mounted, the protests remain leaderless, with some of the protests’ strongest and most visible supporters living in exile, as that the government restricts Internet access in your country.
“This is an indigenous Iranian movement,” Vakil said, “and it is important to note that ordinary Iranians inside the country are the mobilizers of what is happening.”
According to Batmanghelidj, a figure would be needed to negotiate the change with the government and to direct the movement itself internally.
The protests have a wide range of complaints, which go beyond the compulsory hijab and the brutality of the state security apparatus.
It is also unclear whether there are members of the Iranian government who understand the stakes and are willing to push for significant change within the existing power structure, Batmanghelidj added.
