2024-07-25 16:10:23
Starting from July 2024, Media reports on decline in turnover Paris restaurants and businesses seem to be seeing the so-called crowding-out effect. Yet we have been talking about this for at least four years. In some publications Also during meetings with stakeholders (State and DIJOP, Paris City Hall, COJO, etc.). I come back to this topic again and again.
Scientific literature shows that every Olympic Games is associated with the expulsion of tourists: the importance of the announced events and the expected congestion Block casual or professional visitors Come During this time in the city. Thus, during different Olympic Games, the number of tourists sometimes fell in specific cases (Beijing in 2008, at the height of the subprime crisis, Moscow in 1980, with a boycott of the Olympics; Los Angeles in 1984, with worse results than in 1982, Athens received 20% fewer tourists during the 2004 Olympics compared to 2002, London received 4% fewer tourists from July to September 2012; 2011, etc.). If in Barcelona and Rio de Janeiro the JOP was associated with an increase in tourism, in the first case the city was not touristic in 1992, while in the second (2016) the summer season corresponded to the low season.
Tourists stay away
A survey we conducted in 2019 among 1,265 visitors to four major tourist attractions in Paris confirmed that Paris is unlikely to benefit from a tourism boost from the Olympics. Only 13.1% of tourists said they wanted to visit Paris during the 2024 Olympics, 50.4% had no intention of going, and 36.5% were undecided; domestic tourists were slightly more numerous (14.7%) More people want to visit Paris in 2024 than international tourists (12.8%). Similarly, for the question “Will you come in 2019 if the Olympics are held in 2019?”, 54% answered positively and 46% answered negatively. Therefore, we estimate that the number of tourists who will not come in 2019 will exceed 715,000, especially those who come for tourism reasons (in July 2019, the actual number of hotel stays recorded was 1,555,663).
Once the reduction in the number of tourists takes effect, it leads to lower tourism revenues than expected, even though the average Olympic tourist spends twice as much as other tourists. The beneficiaries of tourism revenues may also differ in terms of recipients, given the peculiar behavior of sports tourists. Tourists who come to watch the Olympics have different interests than the “classic” tourists who come to explore the city. The “tourism budget” is then diverted and concentrated on the Olympic venues and their events, to the detriment of the usual venues. This is the substitution effect, defined as the substitution of expenditures on the main tourist attractions with Costs associated with the Olympic Games and their investment venues.
Replacement Fees
In Japan, revenues fell short of expectations due to lower visitor numbers during the 1964 Olympics compared with 1963. Only camera, transistor, and portable television stores, where Japanese firms had a competitive advantage at the time, experienced Sales growth.
Atlanta, like Sydney, saw lower tourism revenues than previously announced. During the 1984 Olympics, Los Angeles restaurant sales were 20% to 40% below the annual average during the first week of the Games, and then were almost in line with the average. 80% of restaurants saw a drop in turnover.
Most attractions in and around Los Angeles saw revenues drop 20% to 35% compared to a normal July and August. The tourists who come to Los Angeles during the Games are sports fans who come to watch the games, and they receive little revenue from restaurants and tours. Small business sales in Los Angeles are down 15% to 25%. The Olympics contributed to the drop, as pre-Olympic media coverage anticipated heavy congestion and higher hotel prices, and through California tourists not arriving in Los Angeles due to Olympics.
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In London, the general manager of UKinbound, an association of British tourism professionals, said that many shops, restaurants, theaters and entertainment venues were affected during the two weeks of the Olympics, with visitor numbers falling by at least 30%. Their activity has dropped significantly.
Museum attendance drops
Museums are also affected. Thus, in London, the British Museum, one of the most popular attractions for foreign tourists (visited by 65% of foreign tourists), saw a significant drop in attendance between July and September 2012 compared with previous years.
*Number of visitors to the British Museum, July, August and September, 2004 to 2018*
Source: Delaplace & Schaffar, 2022
Residents’ living habits have changed
In tourist cities, these expulsion and substitution effects have spatial and temporal dimensions, with tourists coming to Olympic venues but less to other venues, and with tourists arriving in the years before and after the events.
Finally, residents may also change their behavior during the games; some leave the city to avoid event-related congestion, others attend games or watch them on TV with friends, which reduces other types of outings and changes the types of meals eaten. So during the Olympics, residents consume more fast food products. In Los Angeles, residents spend more on JOP than during Other leisure activities in Southern California or outside the area.
In Paris, our survey shows that many museums and tourist attractions are at risk of a drop in attendance. Tourists who were asked about the museums (Rodin, Orsay, Centre Pompidou, etc.), the Luxembourg Gardens, the Pere Lachaise, the Tuileries, Saint-Germain-des-Prés, the Latin Quarter, the Marais, said that they did not plan to come to Paris in 2024… Finally, it is shown that tourists who have visited many of the must-see attractions in Paris (the Louvre, Montmartre, Notre Dame, the Champs-Elysées or the Eiffel Tower) will not come to Paris in 2019 if the Olympic Games take place on that date and do not plan to host the Paris Olympic Games in 2024.
Reduced activity in Parisian shops and restaurants is therefore to be expected.
What are the medium-term impacts?
Can we predict tourism growth associated with reputation effects in the long run? The literature suggests that the number of tourists is not always beneficial Long OlympicsParis’s notoriety is already so important, and nowhere is this more evident than in this. On the other hand, the image effects associated with the Olympics may be even more important for Seine-Saint-Denis, including the promotion of its tourism industry, as it The contrasting image and relative ignorance of most of its tourist resourcesBut the quality of those images will depend on the smooth running of the Olympics.
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