The intensity of the electoral battle in the Baalbek-Hermel district this year is no different from the previous election cycles. While the Lebanese forces were desperate to preserve the Maronite seat and another Shiite genie, what they had not reckoned with happened, with the withdrawal of 3 candidates from the Shiite sect in a row within a week, amid information indicating the possibility of others withdrawing, which warns that May 15 It will be a day full of surprises.
With the abandonment of 3 candidates from the Shiite sect – Ramez Amhaz, Hemin Meshek and Al-Masry removed from the “Building the State” list – and they are from large families in Baalbek-Hermel, the forces will have lost the total votes they were counting on to raise the dividend that would benefit the candidate from the Maronite seat, Antoine Habashi. Which needs 4000 votes to ensure that the list reaches the first electoral quotient.
Informed sources indicated in an interview with “Al-Khandaq” website that “there is no legal justification for these withdrawals, as the list has been registered and it is not possible to withdraw from it, and even in the event the candidate abstains and his electoral machine stops carrying out any electoral activities, he remains under the supervision of the Elections Supervisory Authority and the General Directorate.” For political affairs in the Ministry of Interior and his bank account is still open.” And she pointed out that “the abstainers can change the votes of their supporters to other lists, which will happen in the case of candidates in the Baalbek-Hermel district.”
The sources emphasized that what happened “will negatively affect the enthusiasm of the force voter, who now sees the party’s weakness in maintaining candidates on its list, which may be directly reflected in the voter turnout of the Maronite bloc in Baalbek-Hermel, which amounts to 23,960 voters.”
On the other hand, the forces’ dependence on the Sunni bloc of 46,128 voters, as it seeks to exploit the vacuum left by the Future Movement’s reluctance to run in the elections, and to shift the Sunni votes in the city of Baalbek, Al-Feqa, Al-Ain and Arsal, and secure nearly 2,000 votes for Sunni candidates on its list, Saleh Al-Shel And Zidan Al-Hujairi, where the Sunni votes in the last election cycle constituted a good lever for the list, amounting to 10,968 votes, divided between Hussein Solh and Bakr Al-Hujairi.
It is clear that the battle that the forces initially wanted was to violate the list of hope and fulfill a Shiite seat, which was evident from Samir Geagea’s speech when announcing the names of his candidates in the constituency. It is witnessing an increase in the coming hours. As for the Maronite candidate, the matter is decided by two factors: the Sunni bloc supporting the Future Movement and its voter turnout in favor of the forces list – which did not exceed the 39% threshold in the last round – and the high voter turnout that will raise the electoral quotient, which the Lebanese Forces do not want , because it makes the victory of Habashi difficult.