An unexpected photograph marked what would be the possible restart of the negotiations between chavismo and the opposition. Although with uncomfortable smiles, the handshake between Jorge Rodríguez, head of the Chavista delegation, and Gerardo Blyde, leader of the opposition Unitarian Platform, reflected the real reason for the meeting: the pressure exerted by the United States following the relaxation of sanctions related to the oil sector.
Although what was announced does not yet mean the exploitation, purchase and sale of crude oil, according to initial estimatesChevron might raise Venezuelan production 33% without the sanctions.
Negotiations for “free and fair” elections
Precisely, the condition of the Biden administration to make the uprising effective is the commitment of the Venezuelan government to resume the paralyzed dialogue table with its adversaries in Mexico, in addition to ensuring the holding of “free and fair” elections.
Venezuela continues with deep sanctions and the restructuring of its more than 60,000 million dollars of debt in default not in sight. But the world energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has opened a debate on how the South American country might help solve the interruptions in the supply of crude oil.
The state oil company’s defaulted bonds rose this week as investors priced in optimism regarding possible changes. However, the market remains cautious and prices remain below the levels seen in March following the visit of US officials to Caracas.
And although the intention of both parties to resume negotiations seems obvious, the first signs of reciprocity are not entirely convincing.
“Each stage of dialogue that is restarted generates a greater difficulty of confidence that it can give results,” said the political consultant Michael Velardeinsisting that it is possible that the Maduro government seeks “more oxygen” with these negotiations, given that it is in a moment of political strength.
Stability
According to Velarde, unlike other processes, which total more than seven since 2014, at this time Maduro has stability, which he will make the most of with a view to prolonging his stay in the Miraflores palace, paving the way for the 2024 presidential elections.
and although The United States has insisted that if it does not see realistic signs from the Venezuelan government, it will not move forward in lifting sanctions, The outlook looks quite favorable for Chavismo, which ultimately sets the agenda and decides when and how to resume negotiations.
“The big winner is the Maduro government”assures political consultant Pablo Quintero, who warns that the risks may be greater than the gains for the opposition if they decide to sit down at the table once more.
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Ana Rodriguez Brazon
Correspondent of Time
Caracas
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