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Donald Trump and Joe Biden have swept Super Tuesday and have effectively secured the nomination. With more than four months left until the Republican convention, the main unknown about the United States presidential elections in November is who the former president will choose to accompany him on the ballot. It is often said that vice presidential candidates do not win elections, although if they are decided in a handful of states and, perhaps, by a few tens of thousands of votes, they can make a difference. The former president has given contradictory clues about his plans, but the pools circulate incessantly. They have a small flaw: too many names.
Trump, in complete control of the Republican Party, has suitors swarming. When asked, he goes off on a tangent. At a public forum hosted by Fox News in Des Moines on January 10, before the caucus of Iowa, replied: “I can’t really tell you. I mean, I know who it’s going to be,” she responded.
On that same conservative network, they asked him again in New Hampshire after the primaries and it was not so clear that he had already decided: “I may announce something in the next couple of months or I may not. There is no rush for it. It won’t have any impact. The person I think I like is a very good person, pretty standard. I think people won’t be that surprised, but I would say there’s probably a 25% chance it’s that person,” he replied on January 24.
Trump gave another interview to Fox News on February 4 and was asked when he was going to announce it: “Not for a while.” But has he decided? “I have a lot of good ideas, but I haven’t…” Has he told you already? “I talk to everyone,” he replied, dropping the name of Tim Scott, the only black Republican senator. Could it be Tim Scott, then? “It could be a lot of people,” he castled.
Last week, after the border visit in Eagle Pass, he was asked in another interview—on Fox News, you guessed it—if Texas Governor Greg Abbott was on the list of finalists and he responded: “Absolutely.” “He has done a great job. Yes, he would certainly be someone he would take into account,” he replied, perhaps out of courtesy, with Abbott at his side.
In 2016, Trump chose Mike Pence the week before the convention. In 2020, Joe Biden did the same with Kamala Harris, who repeats as the Democrat’s running mate in November. It is the most common, and if Trump repeats that schedule we will have to wait until July (the Republican convention is from the 15th to the 19th of that month).
Supplementary candidate
Personal harmony, popularity and political interest are the factors that usually influence the decision. It is common to choose someone who complements the candidate and covers some of his or her shortcomings. In 2016, in the midst of scandals over his sexist statements and doubts about his integrity, Trump chose Pence, who defined himself as “a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order” and of whom the former president even said that he was “too honest.”
Sometimes a partner is chosen to help win a state or to strengthen the candidacy in groups of voters where the candidate is weak. That leads many to bet that in the end it will be a woman, an African-American or someone relatively young. But after the desert journey that Trump overcame, personal loyalty is another ingredient to put in the shaker, someone who is MAGA enough [por Make America Great Again, el lema de Trump]. This past weekend, with a joke included, he uttered a phrase that defines him in that sense: “You know Argentina, great guy. He loves Trump. He’s a great Trump guy. I love him because he loves Trump. When he called, I picked up the call. “I like everyone who loves me,” he said in apparent reference to the Argentine president, Javier Milei.
With all this, the list is endless. Of those who have competed against Trump in the primaries, it is worth ruling out Chris Christie, hostile from the beginning, but also Ron DeSantis, who suffered a humiliating defeat, and Nikki Haley, with whom the confrontation has reached personal levels. Instead, they try to undisguisedly make merits of the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, un trumpista millenial, y Tim Scott, senator from South Carolina. Trump has called Scott “a tiger” and that he has campaigned much better for the former president than he did for himself in his short and unsuccessful primary race. Even some media handle the possibility of the rich businessman Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota, who fell at the first opportunity and whom Trump has praised as a businessman.
There is a group of women very loyal to Trump who have made a splash. Among them are the congresswoman from New York Elise Stefanik and the representative of Georgia Marjorie Taylor Greene, although both have a markedly ultra-conservative profile that can scare away moderate voters. In addition to Greene, they have campaigned for Trump since the caucus de Iowa Kari Lake, former television host and former candidate for governor of Arizona (one of the swing states), and Kristi Noem, governor of South Dakota, who also allows herself to be loved and has said that she would accept the proposal “in the blink of an eye.” Her name has been floating around since Trump held a rally with her in September. An option that has emerged strongly (and who has run) is the former congresswoman from Hawaii, ex-military officer and political commentator Tulsi Gabbard. When Trump was told a few names that included her, he replied: “All those people are good. “They are all solid.”
Another Trumpist who was his spokesperson and is currently governor of Arkansas has also been mentioned: Sarah Huckabee Sanders. At 41, she is the youngest governor in the country and like Noem, 52, she can connect with part of the female electorate in residential areas, where Trump is weak. Although less Trumpist and probably with fewer options, the senator from Alabama has joined the group Katie Britt, who has been commissioned to respond to Biden after the State of the Union speech this Thursday. Another Republican politician who has experienced a conversion to Trumpism after harshly condemning the former president for his role in the assault on the Capitol is Nancy Mace, who has a strong media profile and can connect with voters.
Among African Americans, in addition to Tim Scott, another black congressman who appears in the polls is Byron Donalds, 45-year-old representative from Florida, a rising star in the Republican Party who has also said he would accept the proposal without hesitation. And the option of Ben Carson, who was his Secretary of Housing, remained loyal to Trump and is highly regarded by conservative and evangelical voters. He has been mentioned less, but he is also cited by some of the major media outlets, Wesley Hunt, 42-year-old former Apache helicopter pilot and black congressman from Texas.
Long-time political veterans like the two senators from Florida, Marco Rubio y Rick Scott, the governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, and Trump’s former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo They have also been cited by the media, as have John Ratcliffe, who was Trump’s Director of Intelligence. Another staunch Trumpist who can connect with voters in the areas that will define the result is the senator from Ohio J.D. Vance.
As if that were not enough, the controversial ultra-conservative television presenter is added to the list Tucker Carlson, fired from Fox after the agreement in which the television paid 787 million dollars (about 720 million euros) for a defamation lawsuit, which is in good harmony with Trump.
All these names add up to 21 candidates, assuming Trump doesn’t pull a rabbit out of his hat. At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) a little over two weeks ago, which was a kind of merit contest, attendees showed their preferences. Kristi Noem and Ramaswamy each achieved 15% of the vote, with Tulsi Gabbard third (9%), followed by Elise Stefanik and Tim Scott, with 8% each. Byron Donalds got 7%; Kari Lake, 6%, and Ben Carson and Sarah Huckabee Sanders, 5% each. Below were Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene and JD Vance.
Trump, in any case, is one of those who believes that he will win or lose the elections and that it does not matter much who accompanies him. “Well, actually, it’s never had much of an effect on an election,” he said. Only he knows who he will choose. Or maybe not even himself.
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