(CNN Spanish) — Two weeks before the final elections, on June 19, two candidates are vying for millions of votes to reach the presidency of Colombia for the 2022-2026 period. Gustavo Petrowho got regarding 8.5 million votes, and Rodolfo Hernandezwith 5.9 million votes, seek to captivate the undecided and the votes of other candidates to win in second round.
Where will the candidates look for the votes necessary for their victory on June 19?
First, what the polls say
A National Consulting Center survey for CM& published two days following the first round might give some indications of where each one might get the votes.
In the first place, the survey indicates that Hernández is stronger than Petro in regions such as the Coffee Region and Antioquia, (54% vs. 26); the center-east of the country (51% vs. 23%) and the center-south of the country (46% vs. 34%). These places were where, in fact, Hernández achieved the majority of votes in the first round.
Petro, on the other hand, has an advantage over Hernández in Bogotá (49% vs. 39%); in the Caribbean region (48% vs. 33%) and in the Colombian Pacific (57% vs. 23%). The Historic Pact candidate also got a majority of votes in these regions, so he can seek votes there.
In second place, Hernández has a greater intention to vote than Petro in the upper strata (52% vs. 40%). And both have a technical tie in the middle class (Hernández, 39% and Petro 41) and among the lower strata (Hernández 40% and Petro 39%).
And by age, younger voters lean more towards Petro, while as age increases, there is more inclination towards Hernández, according to the survey by the National Consulting Center.
From 18 to 25 years old: Petro 54% — Hernández 26%.
From 26 to 40 years old: Petro 45% — Hernández 37%.
From 41 to 55 years: Hernandez 46% — Petro 34%
Over 56 years: Hernández 53% — Petro 26%.
Petro’s “roof” and Hernandez’s “space”
Analysts consulted by CNN have tried to glimpse how the candidates might grow in support.
The journalist and political analyst Ricardo Galán pointed out that Petro reached its ceiling of votes with the 8.5 million that it got this Sunday and that this would be a disadvantage once morest Hernández, who has less recognition and might take advantage of that for June 19.
“It has a lot of space” Galan told CNNpointing to Hernández’s electoral potential.
“He was unknown in Colombia until two months ago,” Galán continued regarding Hernández. “He has recognition in the population of just 70% versus 96% of Gustavo Petro. He has every chance of continuing to grow. The country already knows him today. And most importantly: the people who do not agree with Gustavo Petro He knows that Rodolfo Hernández can beat Petro and that will be important on June 19,” the analyst told CNN.
On the electoral ceiling of Petro, these are some figures to analyze:
Four years ago in the first round Petro got 4.8 million of votes once morest Iván Duque, who obtained 7.6 million votes. In the second round of 2018, Petro achieved 8 million votes. Four years later, in 2022, he managed to get some 500,000 votes in the first round.
However, analyst León Valencia believes that Petro still has a lot of room to grow in terms of voters in the next two weeks.
“There is a very broad anti-PT vote, that’s true,” Valencia told CNN. “But it is also a reality that Petro needs 10 points to win and Rodolfo Hernández 22.”
According to Valencia, 23% of the votes obtained by the candidate Fico Gutiérrez (who came in third place with 5 million votes) would have to go completely to Hernández, but “that never happens in political logic,” says Valencia.
“Some people from Fico abstain and surely Petro is going to play to neutralize that vote. And other people will go to Petro because there are also political sectors that supported Fico that are hardly going to support Rodolfo Hernández,” added Valencia, pointing out some political rivalries of some right-wing parties that supported Fico, who would not go with Hernández.
But Galán contradicts the electoral mathematics of Valencia and believes that if the votes of Fico Gutiérrez (23%) and Sergio Fajardo (4%) go to Hernández, “Rodolfo is the undisputed winner,” he told CNN.
External support
For the moment, Rodolfo Hernández has obtained support from several key figures on the right, such as former candidate Federico Gutiérrez; some congressmen from the Democratic Center and it is likely that the vote of those sectors will go with this candidate, who has said publicly that he does not accept the support of “politickers” or parties or political machines, but the votes of people who want to support him, regardless of his political affiliation. Former candidate Sergio Fajardo, accompanied by former candidates from the Centro Esperanza coalition, met with Hernández and presented some programmatic points for possible support, although that has not materialized.
And on the other hand, important supporters have already arrived at Petro’s campaign, such as former centrist candidate Alejandro Gaviria, as well as Luis Gilberto Murillo, Sergio Fajardo’s former vice-presidential candidate. Some sectors of the Alianza Verde Party and the New Liberalism (of the center) that previously supported Fajardo have also joined. This Friday he officially supported him Antanas Mockus, former presidential candidate and former mayor of Bogotá.
The question that remains is whether in this change contextin which traditional parties and politicians were punished, a politician’s public support for one of these campaigns will add or subtract.
The last word is held by 39 million Colombians on June 19.
MEET THE CANDIDATES:
