2023-08-29 02:00:14
The recent urban violence in France should make us think regarding social risks and stimulate us to debate to define a global approach that is lacking.
Several French cities have been set ablaze this summer following the death of a young man killed by the police. Fortunately, everything is back to normal. The poor were able to return home and trade resumed…
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According to the popular saying, when France catches a cold, Belgium sneezes. So we had a few skirmishes. Nothing serious. This episode should, however, push us to become aware of the fragility of our social peace. And to ask ourselves: what are we risking?
Risk and complexity
Risk is an event that can arise, which is of the order of the possible. It stems neither from the certainty of a written destiny nor from incalculable uncertainty. Unlike danger, which refers to intrinsic properties – a toxic gas is dangerous -, the risk is circumstantial: it concerns the probability that a hazard will have such effects, of such magnitude, in such places, times, conditions.
From the end of the 1980s, the sociologist Ulrich Beck thought of the risk society, its close link with modernity and the fragility of democracy. He noted that the individualization and increasing complexity of technical or social systems make events and our lives increasingly volatile, and therefore risky.
We are confronted with major social trends, carrying major risks, which are however not the subject of ambitious cross-cutting policies.
Philosopher Lambros Couloubaristis also links complexity and risk. In the footsteps of Morin, he highlights the decisive importance of feedback loops. When effects become causes of their own movement, the situation is renewed, becomes new, and the usual forecasts or responses no longer work. We must move on to risk analyses.
A non-political subject
Belgian society has also become increasingly complex. Yet, the risk still does not get the political attention it deserves.
Certainly, we do have rules relating to certain subjects (nuclear, chemical, safety at work, etc.), the analyzes of public health research centers, and even those of a National crisis center who is interested in terrorist, natural, technological or health risks.
More there is no global and widely debated reflection on systemic social risks. However, this type of reflection is possible. So, political scientist Ian Bremmer identifies indicators of unrest ranging from riots to revolution: weight of youth, housing, misery, corruption, violence, charismatic opposition leaders… strategic scenarios built by large companies, intelligence servicesthe reports of rating agencies and insurers also take the social dimension into account.
Fragmentation and depletion
We are confronted with heavy social trends, carrying major risks, which however do not not the subject of ambitious cross-cutting policies. For example, isolation affects more and more people to the point that within a few years the majority of housing will be occupied by single people.
Obesity wins too. It affected 10.8% of the adult population 20 years ago, 15.9% today, 33% in 2035 according to the World Obesity Federation. We know that isolation and obesity are important for health and well-being, individual or collective. They also have an economic dimension: social capital promotes employment and investment, the impact of overweight is estimated at more than 8 billion euros (care, premature death, absenteeism, etc.).
Next year will be an election. It might be an opportunity to confront us with these massive social risks. It would be a matter of carrying out a strategic reflection.
If we add the negative trends in education, housing, political and professional disengagement, we see that the fundamentals of a serene relationship with others, with oneself and with the world are in danger. There is a risk of increasing fragmentation, malaise, even vital exhaustion. By comparison, the risk of a riot would seem almost trivial.
Necessary strategic debate
Next year will be an election. It might be an opportunity to confront us with these massive social risks. It would be a matter of carrying out a strategic reflection.
We will have to collect these data and, above all, put them into debate, in other words allow a real diversity of social actors, beyond the “usual suspects” of the Belgian pudding, discuss in order to identify the decisive driving forces of evolution, to imagine possible scenarios, to identify actions that best prepare us for it. In doing so, we will have used the risk for its opportunityopenness, and call to power of our collective freedom…
Joel Van Cauter
Doctor of Philosophy and Economist, Itinera Institute
1693284029
#global #reflection #systemic #social #risks
