When will the strong dollar reverse? Domestic economic experts shouted that next year (2023) the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike will come to an end, the strong US dollar will reverse, and non-US currencies will also bottom out.
Before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar remained in a range-bound pattern. Looking back on last Friday, stocks rebounded synchronously, the NT dollar exchange rate stopped three consecutive depreciations, appreciated by 6.3 cents, and closed at 30.622 yuan, with a total turnover of 1.251 billion US dollars.
A trader at Bank of China said that the inflation data to be released by the United States and the Fed’s interest rate decision are key indicators, and the market is waiting with bated breath. Before the situation becomes clear, the market is expected to be conservative. pattern.
Huang Yinji, Chief Economist of Yongfeng Financial Holdings, pointed out that looking forward to next year (2023), as the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike comes to an end, it is expected that the US bond yield will fall quarter by quarter, and the US dollar will lose its interest rate advantage. It is expected that by the end of next year, The US dollar index will fall back to 103.
Regarding the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar, Huang Yinji said that it is expected that the United States will raise interest rates for the last time in February next year. After the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar reaches 32.35 yuan, the US dollar will gradually weaken. In addition, the global economy will start to recover, and funds will return to Taiwan, which will drive the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar to rise next year. go up.
Dr. Luo Wei, Chief Economist of Fubon Financial Holdings believes that the foreign exchange market in 2023 will be supported by differences in monetary policies, and the US dollar will maintain a certain strength in the first half of the year. The dollar will weaken. If the economy grows steadily, funds will flow to non-US regions in search of higher returns, and the currencies of developed countries with better support and fundamentals.
Huang Yinji said that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 15 yards so far, and raised interest rates by 3 yards in four consecutive meetings in the past. The pace is quite radical. Considering the impact of policies on the real economy, there is a time lag. The Fed expects to slow down the rate hike in December The pace is changed to raise the interest rate by 2 yards, and the interest rate will be raised by 2 yards and 1 yard in February and March 2023 respectively. The end point of this round of interest rate hike cycle will stay at the level of 5%~5.25%, and it will remain unchanged before the end of the year.
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