© Archyde.com. When will A shares reverse their troubles? What are the main lines of investment?The top ten brokerage strategies are here
Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, researcher Yao Hui), the latest strategic views of the top ten securities companies have been released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: The impact of the tightening of peripheral currencies on A shares is mainly at the emotional level. The actual impact is limited
How sustainable is the main line of steady growth? The policy of stabilizing growth starts with infrastructure construction, followed by real estate. After a number of policies are combined, the domestic GDP will recover to a potential growth level of around 5.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, which will support the quarter-level market of the main line of stabilizing growth.
When will the growth track usher in a systematic repair? The current market style is in the process of transforming from growth to value, and will continue for at least one quarter; the growth track in the second quarter is expected to usher in a systematic repair following the three major conditions are in place.
How will global currency tightening affect A-shares? In the first half of the year, under the staged dislocation of Sino-US monetary policies, the impact of the tightening of peripheral currencies on A shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited.
How to seize market opportunities at the current time? It is recommended to stick to the blue-chip style throughout the year. Currently, it is closely following the main line of value blue-chip catalyzed by the stabilizing growth policy, and continues to firmly focus on the “two lows” active layout. Specifically, it includes: ❶ Varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing companies following the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, Hong Kong stock Internet leaders following the impact of China concept stocks, and new businesses with new materials Fine chemical companies with strong production capacity; ❷ Varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, focusing on midstream manufacturing that was suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobiles, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc., aviation and hotels whose fundamentals are still expected to be low.
Huaan Securities: Steady growth in short-term transactions
In the first week following the Spring Festival holiday, there was a marked differentiation in the market. The “steady growth” chain performed well and the growth style continued to adjust. Looking ahead, with the approval of Pfizer’s new crown treatment drug to boost confidence in economic recovery, the credit easing has exceeded expectations, and monetary policy will continue to be loose to maintain sufficient liquidity. Actively seek to grasp the structural market of A shares.
In terms of configuration, the short-term stable growth mainline is relatively cost-effective, and it is still expected to gain a stage dominance. In the mid-term, with the adjustment of the growth style, the third stage of growth can be gradually deployed to extract the valuation market. It is recommended to pay attention to 4 major directions: first, building materials, urban pipeline network transformation, steel and real estate upstream and downstream under the further strengthening of the logic of stable growth; second, signs of growth and diffusion have emerged, and the market can be deployed in the third stage of growth; third, benefit from economic recovery The fourth is the service travel chain catalyzed by the approval of Pfizer’s drug and the necessary consumer goods for the logic of price increases.
CICC: The main line of policy strengthening is “steady growth”
There is no need to be overly pessimistic at present. Historically, in the context of relatively low market levels and low expectations, there has been an increase in credit and social financing that exceeded expectations. The cycle from two to three months has a positive impact on the market. If these indicators have a certain continuity The situation will be more obvious, and the improvement of forward-looking indicators is conducive to the improvement of growth expectations. In terms of style, we believe that “steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage, and the room for a sharp sell-off in the growth style may be relatively limited, but it may not be in a hurry to buy bottoms.
Industry configuration suggestion: The style of “steady growth” may continue, and manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround. 1) Policy marginal changes or potential supportive areas, including infrastructure and real estate related industry chains (building materials, construction, home appliances, home furnishing, etc.) , brokerage finance, etc.; 2) Midstream and downstream consumption that has been adjusted in 2021, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still bright, choose stocks from the bottom up, including home appliances, light industry and home furnishing, automobiles and parts, Internet , agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, etc.; 3) Against the background of the positive progress of the epidemic, sectors such as aviation and airports, catering tourism, and offline entertainment may receive periodic attention; 4) The manufacturing growth sectors that increased significantly last year, including new energy vehicles , new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, etc., have been adjusted, but it may not be the time for full intervention.
Guotai Junan: Grasp consumption and infrastructure along with low valuation and value
There is no need to be pessimistic regarding the short-term weak consolidation of the market. In March, with the upward revision of positive factors, the market will gradually recover. The anchor of the current risk appetite is the local debt and real estate issues. The direction of the two is determined, but the slope still needs to be observed continuously, which also determines the space for the market to recover. Structurally, we will focus on low valuation and value, and grasp consumption and infrastructure.
Industry configuration: 1) Consumption: live pigs, home appliances, furniture and social services, tourism, liquor; 2) Infrastructure: building materials, construction, power operations; 3) Finance: brokerages, banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
Haitong Securities: The stable growth spring market will not be absent
Over the past 21 years, the ups and downs of the most important industries in the CSI 300 have been out of sync, and the index has fluctuated. In the context of the era of equity investment, allocation-type funds enter the market. It is expected that the supply and demand of A-share funds will balance in 22 years, supporting the volatile market. The steady-growth spring market will not be absent. Structurally, value comes first and then grows, such as undervalued financial real estate, and new energy and digital economy for new infrastructure.
Huaxi Securities: It is in the strategic layout stage in the medium and long term during the repeated grinding period
The current A shares are still in a period of shock and repeated bottom grinding. The adjustment of the A-share high valuation boom track is a “cold spring” following the general rise in the early stage, and many factors restricting the strength of the A-share market need to be gradually digested. In a slightly longer period of time, A shares are in the stage of strategic layout. First, following nearly two months of release of market sentiment and short-term violent venting, risks have been fully released; second, the long-term stable and positive trend of China’s economy remains unchanged. The follow-up policy of stabilizing growth is expected to gradually strengthen; third, from the annual report forecast of listed companies, there are many structural bright spots in the earnings of A-share companies. In terms of allocation, focus on two main lines of investment: one is the policy of “steady growth” allocation of varieties, such as “banks, real estate, building materials and construction”, etc.; the second is to benefit from the expected price increase (price increase), “food and beverage, breeding, agricultural products” Wait. In terms of themes, focus on “new energy (vehicles), digital economy, seed industry” and so on.
Western Securities: Inflation trading starts ahead of schedule to allocate inflation trading credit
Affected by the rapid rise in commodity prices triggered by geopolitics and the slow recovery of the global supply chain due to the disruption of the epidemic, the global capital market has begun to gradually face up to the inflation risks it will face this year. The inflation trade that was supposed to kick off in the second half of the year may have already begun.
With the early start of inflation trading, we believe that investors need to actively allocate profits to the consumer sector, which is highly correlated with inflation and benefits from offline economic recovery. In particular, consumer staples are still the main allocation line throughout the year, including aquaculture, planting industry, food processing, catering tourism, retail, textile clothing, traditional Chinese medicine, rubber products, etc. On the other hand, in the rapidly rotating market environment this year, investors with higher risk appetite can follow the credit cycle and actively participate in rotating trading opportunities in industries with a higher probability of profit inflection points in the upward phase of the credit cycle. In addition, following patiently waiting for the market to stabilize, the high-quality growth leaders whose performance can be confirmed and realized are expected to usher in phased repairs.
Southwest Securities: Three main lines for the reversal of the A-share plight under the huge amount of social financing
On February 10, the People’s Bank of China released financial statistics and social financing data. January’s credit and social financing data both hit record highs and were significantly higher than wind consensus expectations. This shows the determination and confidence of the current decision-making level to grow steadily. Of course, it should be pointed out that although the liquidity easing was somewhat unexpected, the market will remain structural.
At present, there are at least three areas that have the opportunity to make a Jedi attack in the A-share market. The first is the “reversal of predicament” in the sector damaged by the epidemic. It mainly includes business, tourism and other fields. The second is the reversal of the predicament of the “stable growth” related sectors. Mainly in construction, building materials, raw materials, real estate and other sectors. These sectors are better at low valuations, institutions have low expectations for this, and the allocation ratio is also low. However, with the introduction of the policy of steady growth, the market’s expectations for it have gradually increased. The third is the segment with stable performance growth and relatively low valuation in the performance forecast. In contrast, this direction is more fragmented and focuses more on bottom-up stock picking.
China Merchants Securities: Waiting for external factors to gradually land, A shares are expected to return to the upward cycle
The growth rate of new social financing in January turned positive and will gradually enter an upward cycle, which is conducive to improving investors’ pessimistic expectations on profitability, which is one of the important conditions for the previous bottom of A-shares. Since 2022 is a year of steady growth, the growth rate of new social financing is expected to continue to pick up, forming a positive support for A shares. After the Fed raises interest rates and other external factors that affect risk appetite gradually take effect, A shares are expected to return to the upward cycle. We still maintain the judgment of “√” for the trend of A-shares throughout the year, and “low valuation +” and “depression strategy” are still the current dominant allocation strategies. From February to March, we can focus on opportunities such as industrial metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and cement, which will benefit from steady growth and continuous price increases.
Zhongtai Securities: The spring market is still dominated by low-value blue chips
On the whole, under the general environment that the global financial market is gradually adapting to the hawkish shift of the Federal Reserve, domestic RRR cuts and other stable growth policies continue to exert force, and indicators such as social financing are expected to stabilize, the spring market is expected to go further. The comprehensive registration system and stable growth are good for low-value blue chips, while the “hawkishness” of the Federal Reserve may put pressure on the growth sector, and the strength of low-value blue chips such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 during the adjustment process in January. We believe that the spring market is still dominated by low-value blue chips.
In terms of specific configuration, blue chips with low valuations still adhere to three main lines: 1) securities companies; 2) central enterprises with high dividends and national reforms, especially: the direction of central finance such as railways and electric power; 3) green electricity. At the same time, some of the medicines related to the epidemic, such as ventilators and vaccines, have also entered the allocation range.
